May Severe Weather

[NCAABound]

It is amazing how the storms so far today built up just south or east of Wichita. I live just south of Derby and it's almost like they are avoiding most of SG county.

[wsushox1]

It is amazing how the storms so far today built up just south or east of Wichita. I live just south of Derby and it's almost like they are avoiding most of SG county.

Just the way it works. The boundary that was forming the storms was roughly from Marion to Wellington line. It's retreated. So ICT may yet see some rain

[SB Shock]

There were some interesting boundary around today that were triggering today storm. Here is screen shot that shows 3 of them. The storms were firing where almost all 3 intersected and then would move off.

Capture.JPG

[NCAABound]

yeah I know that's how it works....but with lack of rain this year it was amazing (or not) that the boundary set up where it did.

[SB Shock]

yeah I know that's how it works....but with lack of rain this year it was amazing (or not) that the boundary set up where it did.

well some in the area got some decent rains (or hail). Maybe tomorrow

[wsushox1]

Still not sold on tomorrows threat. Latest model mixes moisture out badly and raises LCL heights to around 1500-2000m. You're likely not going to see a tornado with cloud bases that high off the ground. Iowa still looks super-dangerous tomorrow; would not want to be living there. Only precipitation that breaks out is when the Cold-Front starts to crash through and you'll just get a line of storms.

In order to get a tornado tomorrow you're going to want dew points of close to 70 degrees and that's just not going to happen.

[SB Shock]

Still not sold on tomorrows threat. Latest model mixes moisture out badly and raises LCL heights to around 1500-2000m. You're likely not going to see a tornado with cloud bases that high off the ground. Iowa still looks super-dangerous tomorrow; would not want to be living there. Only precipitation that breaks out is when the Cold-Front starts to crash through and you'll just get a line of storms.

In order to get a tornado tomorrow you're going to want dew points of close to 70 degrees and that's just not going to happen.

Personally, I think SPC website was hacked. :glee:

When the whole character of their forecast changes on dime you have to wonder... I wouldn't be surprised if the next forecast is moderated somewhat in the next round when it comes out.

[ShockerFever]

You're all jackasses. There is a significant tornado threat.

I hate to say I told you so, but I TOLD YOU SO

Idiot.

[ShockerFever]

Still not sold on tomorrows threat. Latest model mixes moisture out badly and raises LCL heights to around 1500-2000m. You're likely not going to see a tornado with cloud bases that high off the ground. Iowa still looks super-dangerous tomorrow; would not want to be living there. Only precipitation that breaks out is when the Cold-Front starts to crash through and you'll just get a line of storms.

In order to get a tornado tomorrow you're going to want dew points of close to 70 degrees and that's just not going to happen.

You got that right. With temps expected to soar into the upper 80's to near 90, and dew points progged into the mid-60's (good), the spread is gonna be quite large, as you mentioned, and thus the LCL's are going to be high.

There seems to be some discrepancies on a secondary low developing out in the Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma. That would certainly help to back winds. I think there may be a small window very late in the day, perhaps early evening where something might pop up before the cold front comes crashing through.

There may be a tornado or two tomorrow in our general area. But a tornado outbreak with "violent, long-tracked tornadoes" there will not. What kind of idiot put that wording out there? Nobody. Except DooFOus and his bullshit that he doesn't understand.

[DanielBryan]

Your a ******, u ******

[pinstripers]

.15 moisture out here

[SB Shock]

SPC has backed off. There is moderate threat of severe weather today, but the moderate threat is due to hail not tornadoe. The tornado threat would only be a sligh risk today.

Capture.JPGCapture1.JPGCapture2.JPG


Graphic 1 - Overall,
Graphic 2 - Tornado,
Graphic 3 Hail

Looks like the greatest threat is west of the turnpike.

[DanielBryan]

West of Wichita & east of Wichita typical

[ShockerFever]

West of Wichita & east of Wichita typical

Then move, f***head.

[wsushox1]

For those who want to watch storm evolution here is a 1 minute high res visible satellite link.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/

for those weather nerds out there it's freaking awesome. Basically can see real time evolution of the storms firing off the dryline in western kS