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Here we go. After failing to establish any sort of high pressure over the Carribean/Azores all spring due, in large part, to the polar vortex we finally have one and that is going to help to bring up fairly potent moisture from the GOM into the central and southern Plains.
Tuesday (April 1) should be mainly elevated convection well north of the warm front with the main threat being large hail and possible wind gust. Coverage should rapidly increase after dark in response to an increase in the winds just above the surface (LLJ).
Wednesday (April 2) is by far the most intriguing date of this week in terms of mode of convection. This day had been looking like a no-show for most of SC KS however that might be changing as one of tonight's model runs moves the warm front further north and might bring Wichita into play on Wednesday. One of the things to monitor on Wednesday, and even Tuesday night, is to see how fast the elevated convection can move northward and allow the associated cloud shield to clear. Even if they move north quickly I am sure there will be low-level stratus clouds in the area on Wednesday morning. The model run I was referring too sets up the warm front from just south of wichita (might include Wichita - hard to tell for sure based on grid spacing) north along the KS turnpike to around Emporia and then along a more equatorial direction into Missouri. Anywhere along and SE of this warm front should be in play for all modes of convection: Large Hail, Damaging Winds and Tornados. I'm not going to use an adjective in front of the word tornado -I'll let the professionals at the SPC do that. Another thing that is of concern is a capping inversion helping to suppress convection. I don't think this will be too big of an issue as most model runs have all initiated convection and forecast soundings are uncapped in this area. Anyways, Wednesday's set-up is largely conditional on the northward extent of the Warm Front as well as whether or not the LLJ cranks up fast enough to effect any supercells before things go multicellular and linear.
I doubt I'll stay up late enough to post this mornings SPC outlooks. My guess is SB will be in here to post them before I wake up tomorrow.
Stay safe.
Tuesday (April 1) should be mainly elevated convection well north of the warm front with the main threat being large hail and possible wind gust. Coverage should rapidly increase after dark in response to an increase in the winds just above the surface (LLJ).
Wednesday (April 2) is by far the most intriguing date of this week in terms of mode of convection. This day had been looking like a no-show for most of SC KS however that might be changing as one of tonight's model runs moves the warm front further north and might bring Wichita into play on Wednesday. One of the things to monitor on Wednesday, and even Tuesday night, is to see how fast the elevated convection can move northward and allow the associated cloud shield to clear. Even if they move north quickly I am sure there will be low-level stratus clouds in the area on Wednesday morning. The model run I was referring too sets up the warm front from just south of wichita (might include Wichita - hard to tell for sure based on grid spacing) north along the KS turnpike to around Emporia and then along a more equatorial direction into Missouri. Anywhere along and SE of this warm front should be in play for all modes of convection: Large Hail, Damaging Winds and Tornados. I'm not going to use an adjective in front of the word tornado -I'll let the professionals at the SPC do that. Another thing that is of concern is a capping inversion helping to suppress convection. I don't think this will be too big of an issue as most model runs have all initiated convection and forecast soundings are uncapped in this area. Anyways, Wednesday's set-up is largely conditional on the northward extent of the Warm Front as well as whether or not the LLJ cranks up fast enough to effect any supercells before things go multicellular and linear.
I doubt I'll stay up late enough to post this mornings SPC outlooks. My guess is SB will be in here to post them before I wake up tomorrow.
Stay safe.
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