Be ready for severe weather this fall

[SPEShockAlum]

This is great news for the overseeding I'm having done this week.

[wsushox1]

There are still somediscrepancies between the 12z NAM and 12z GFS. Today's 12z NAM paints a pretty good severe signal over Wichita for Thursday. Capping might be a limiting factor but CAPE values by 12z NAM progged to be around 2500 j/kg and good speed and directional shear.

Here is a GFS moisture and wind forecast for 7pm Thursday.

[newshock1234]

Good Peyton Manning sucks in cold weather lol

[ShockerFever]

Looks like the cold front is gonna come crashing through, which means mostly a linear event with better supercell chances off to the northeast towards the surface low. Looks like we are gonna get some severe weather though in the form of damaging winds.

At 36-48 hours out, the timing of this system is still pretty fudged up by the models. I'm thinking the slower GFS will probably win out but who knows? What do you think wsushox1?

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Watching model runs for impact on Invest 97, most agree with the slower moving front.

That is good and bad. Leaves LA in play for Karen, but keeps her out of the warmer eastern Gulf that would enhance development.

[SB Shock]

I think if we get any rain out of this we will be lucky.

[wsushox1]

The best case scenario for severe weather around this weekend is the scenario that the GFS is painting for Friday with a much slower advancing cold front than the NAM and even then LCL's are mile high with lack luster shear. So, as the event draws closer it looks as if tomorrow is going to be held down by Capping Inversion. Friday the cold front is going to be crashing as Fever said so it is very possible that it will be a dry period with no rain.

[SubGod22]

I hope there's no rain. I'm tired of having my nieces softball teams tournaments cancelled for one reason or another. Not a lot of chances to watch them locally in the fall, so hopefully if we get any rain around here, it's minimal. We can deal with anything else.

[1979Shocker]

Unusual Strong Storm Front Threatens Midwest

An unusual strong storm front is threatening the Midwest from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley over the next several days.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., says the system could bring heavy thunder, wind, rain and possibly tornadoes on Friday.

[Kung Wu]

I saw a contractulatory signal spike across the carbundiactic lagersphere but chalked it up to helioscillation. Good thing the boys caught it on HEV because XAR was too slow to pick it up and JEY ... well, you all know the story with JEY.

[ShockerFever]

I hope there's no rain. I'm tired of having my nieces softball teams tournaments cancelled for one reason or another. Not a lot of chances to watch them locally in the fall, so hopefully if we get any rain around here, it's minimal. We can deal with anything else.

Ironically, if this was said a year ago or even 4 months ago, you would have been called absurd.

Unless your nieces are playing on Friday, you shouldn't have to worry about rain, just some wind and cool temperatures. Shouldn't be enough rain to muddy things up too bad.

[SubGod22]

I can live with that.

[MoValley John]

Tornadoes confirmed on the ground 60 miles SW of me. Moving my way. I love the thunderstorms, especially in the Fall, but I don't need any twisters, cyclones or hook echoes.

[MoValley John]

The tornadoes are moving into the Weeping Water area. That is about 40 miles southwest. The tornadoes are relatively weak, but the thunderstorms are very strong. Tennis ball sized hail. Radar has this dialing in directly at me. One house has been destroyed in Bennett, Nebraska.

Should be a fun night.

[MoValley John]

It's raining now. Heavy rain. Nothing to note other than it proves that I must live East of Turnpike.