Major Winter Storm [Wed/Thurs]

[rrshock]

They adjust their expectations as they get new data from model runs - so it is educated guessing.

I know things change, but it just seems weather people have more leeway than people in other jobs.

[wsushox1]

I know things change, but it just seems weather people have more leeway than people in other jobs.

Biggest fallacy that is said about weathermen.

There's a ton of money at stake when it comes to the weather and property, and meteorologists are paid to get it right, not wrong. If they get it horribly wrong then their out.

Weather is a dynamic system too, it's not like doing a chemical reaction, in which you can model every aspect of it. Grid size for Numerical Weather Models is too big. The smaller you make the grid size, the longer the calculations take.

Find a way to make computers 100000 times faster than they are now and then we can talk about meteorologists having too much leeway.


I'm not saying that computer models are the end all be all with weather prediction - there is a human element - but if people are gonna get mad about a forecast being wrong for two square mile radius then better faster numerical computations are going to be needed to get the accuracy of a weather model down to a 1-2km region for a large scale weather model.

[wsushox1]

In fact, just today they shrunk the hurricane forecasts "Cone of Error" because it was too big for the amount of error spread seen in recent years.

[SB Shock]

Find a way to make computers 100000 times faster than they are now and then we can talk about meteorologists having too much leeway.

Part of the problem is computer resources are not being allocated properly.

This is from Dr. Cliff Mass, professor at University of Wash.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html

The following

• Misallocation of resources at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the National Weather Service.
• Climate modeling diverting money and computing resources from weather forecasting and storm warnings.
• Very serious management issues with the U.S. weather satellite program. Here again, we may have to "borrow" a weather satellite from the Europeans.

[SB Shock]

Good first round. I had 3.3 inches with 0.37 inches of actual water. Next round should be hitting later tonight.

[rrshock]

It appears that I have about a foot here where I live. I can't recall ever seeing this much snow at once here.

[pinstripers]

Guessing more than a foot west of ICT......oh hell, quite a bit more

[SubGod22]

There's enough that my dogs have to jump from one place to the next outside. At least a foot.

[ShockBand]

And thundersnow overnight! You know you live in Kansas when the biggest snowstorm in exactly 40 years (I remember the blizzard of 1971, with the snow over my head, of course I was three at the time, so...) includes thunder. Now if we get tornadosnow, I'm moving!

Best name I've seen for this storm. The Snowtorious B.I.G.

[pinstripers]

The snowcover combined with the lightning strikes made it bright as day at 3 AM. Weird.

[Kung Wu]

The snowcover combined with the lightning strikes made it bright as day at 3 AM. Weird.

It was awesome if you got to witness it.

[SubGod22]

Sadly I fell asleep about thirty minutes before it happened... :(

[WstateU]

There's enough that my dogs have to jump from one place to the next outside. At least a foot.

My dogs think they're at McDonalds, "They're lovin' it!"

[capnkirk]

My kid and I got a good chuckle out of that video. :)

[1972Shocker]

So thankful for the precipitation. And it is gorgeous. Ok, so it's somewhat of an inconvenience. I can live with that.