Major Winter Storm [Wed/Thurs]

[SB Shock]

Major Winter Storm about to hit. Most of KS under Winter Storm Warning.

* TIMING...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEEDING ONE-QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. * WINDS...WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY POOR VISIBILITIES...AND SNOW PACKED AND TREACHEROUS DRIVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TREES...POWER LINES AND UNTREATED HIGHWAYS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...DEPENDING ON EXACT TEMPERATURES.

[SB Shock]

snow_GFS.jpg

GFS model run showing snow depths - not that impressive with only 6-10 inches in the ICT area.

[SB Shock]

snow_nam.jpg

NAM12 showing 10-12 inches for ICT.

[SB Shock]

snow_nam4.jpg

The shorter term models are little more interesting - which seem to be pushing the snow further SE. This is out 36 hours, with still more snow to come.

[SB Shock]

snow_hrw.jpg

This is the HRW model, similar to the NAM4 model, pushing the major storms through the SC corridor. This is 6 hour snow totals, so the total could be higher is this scenario panned out.

[SB Shock]

The overall trends for the models over the last several runs has been to go from a I-70 corridor, West KS storm to more of I-35 corridor storm.

[rrshock]

Precipitation will be nice. Treacherous roads will not be however.

[rrshock]

The overall trends for the models over the last several runs has been to go from a I-70 corridor, West KS storm to more of I-35 corridor storm.

East of turnpike?

Sorry. I had to get that in there. :)

[wsushox1]

NAM vs GFS at this point regarding the dry slot and how much it will effect precipitation totals.

[wsushox1]

Regardless I think weather services out of Wichita are slightly under doing the potential for a decent amount of snow.

[rrshock]

Regardless I think weather services out of Wichita are slightly under doing the potential for a decent amount of snow.

You mean that it will be more than the 10" that they are predicting?

[wsushox1]

You mean that it will be more than the 10" that they are predicting?

No, I did not know they had upped their amounts. I do not live in Wichita/El Dorado any more so I don't follow the up to minute changes in the forecast like I used too.

Yesterday my father told me they were only predicting 4-6 inches, which would have been too low. Also yesterday Accuweather was predicting 2-5 inches, which would also have been too low.

Apologies.

[rrshock]

No, I did not know they had upped their amounts. I do not live in Wichita/El Dorado any more so I don't follow the up to minute changes in the forecast like I used too.

Yesterday my father told me they were only predicting 4-6 inches, which would have been too low. Also yesterday Accuweather was predicting 2-5 inches, which would also have been too low.

Apologies.

I was just curious. I have seen it change several times now, so it is just a guessing, I feel, at this point.

[WstateU]

[SB Shock]

I was just curious. I have seen it change several times now, so it is just a guessing, I feel, at this point.

They adjust their expectations as they get new data from model runs - so it is educated guessing.