FanDuel Question

[Kung Wu]

Providence 1-5, +500, $0.38
Villanova 1-5, +430, $0.33
Villanova 6-10, +380, $0.29

-100% ROI

Illinois 1-5, +500, $0.38
Illinois 6-10, +370, $0.33
Illinois 11-15, +460, $0.29

+128% ROI


... combined ROI for the day: +14%

[Kung Wu]

Today has just a single game:

Miami 1-5, +550, $0.4
Virginia 1-5, +430, $0.32
Virginia 6-10, +380, $0.28

[Kung Wu]

Current overall ROI since I switched to weighted betting 3 days ago: 9.857%

If I take the L, overall ROI drops to: -3.875% <-- 32% chance of this happening
If Miami wins by 1-5, overall ROI jumps to: 28.62% <-- 27.2% chance of this happening
If Virginia wins by 1-5, overall ROI jumps to: 17.375% <-- 21.8% chance of this happening
If Virginia wins by 6-10, overall ROI jumps to: 12.875% <-- 19% chance of this happening

Now it's time to get to work!

[ShockerFever]

Ouch

[ShockerFever]

No KU-KSU bets? I’m kinda disappointed KW. I think that was the best chance to have a close result.

[Kung Wu]

No KU-KSU bets? I’m kinda disappointed KW. I think that was the best chance to have a close result.

It didn't make my radar. I have pretty strict selection criteria.

The biggest ouch is Miami scored 38 points for the entire game! Wow!

[WstateU]

It didn't make my radar. I have pretty strict selection criteria.

The biggest ouch is Miami scored 38 points for the entire game! Wow!

Wonder how the $800k man did tonight?

33 mins
2 pts
1 rebound
5 assists

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/nijel-pack-transfers-to-miami-former-kansas-state-star-to-earn-800000-in-nil-deal-with-lifewallet/amp/

[ShockTalk]

Wonder how the $800k man did tonight?

33 mins
2 pts
1 rebound
5 assists

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...ifewallet/amp/

GIVE HIM A RAISE!!

[Kung Wu]

So far FanDuel is not giving a Margin Band option on any of the games.

[Kung Wu]

I figured they would take Margin Bands away at some point. I can't be the only one that saw what I saw. They still have Margin which are 1-10 divisions, but that means you have to stomach much larger swings. Here's an example of three and why it's suckier:

Colorado St., 1-10, +165 odds <-- 56% chance of failure 44% of success
Utah St., 1-10, +165 odds <-- 56% chance of failure 44% of success
South Carolina 1-10, +175 odds <-- 56% chance of failure 44% of success

The fact that you have a much higher chance of losing an individual bet is okay, because done 100 times you would still make 16%-ish ROI, but the variance (and risk) is much heavier. It's probably not worth it honestly.

[ShockerFever]

Draftkings still has multiple bands for games. Might wanna check them out.

[Kung Wu]

Draftkings still has multiple bands for games. Might wanna check them out.

Ah, nice! I will check 'em out.

[Kung Wu]

DraftKings has a tighter option for bands so trying this today:

San Diego 1-2 $0.09, +900
San Diego 3-6 $0.25, +550
San Diego 7-9 $0.15, +1000

Nevada 1-2 $0.14, +1400
Nevada 3-6 $0.22, +450
Nevada 7-9 $0.15, +800

Going to keep it each game a $1 total bet to keep the math easy for now.

Not sure why I am getting +1400 odds on Nevada to win 1-2, but I'm not gonna argue with it!

[Kung Wu]

San Diego 1-2 $0.09, +900
San Diego 3-6 $0.25, +550
San Diego 7-9 $0.15, +1000
Nevada 1-2 $0.14, +1400
Nevada 3-6 $0.22, +450
Nevada 7-9 $0.15, +800

+20% ROI. Will discuss this later.


Today is a big day, have more to analyze but this is a lot of work so I am going to automate a lot of it.

Rolling with these for now (will edit and add as I analyze 'em):

Xavier 7-9 +1000: $0.14
Xavier 3-6 +550: $0.24
Xavier 1-2 +900: $0.11
Creighton 1-2 +1000: $0.13
Creighton 3-6 +500: $0.22
Creighton 7-9 +900: $0.14
+40% ROI

TCU 1-2 +1400: $0.15
Iowa State 1-2 +1100: $0.24
Iowa State 3-6 +475: $0.11
Iowa State 7-9 +700: $0.13
Iowa State 10-13 +475: $0.22
Iowa State 14-16 +750: $0.15
+26% ROI

Providence 3-6 +650: $0.23
Providence 1-2 +1100: $0.12
Butler 1-2 +1000: $0.11
Butler 3-6 +500: $0.20
Butler 7-9 +700: $0.18
Butler 10-13 +550: $0.16
+20% ROI

Auburn 10-13 +700: $0.26
Auburn 7-9 +850: $0.13
Auburn 3-6 +500: $0.23
Auburn 1-2 +950: $0.10
Florida 1-2 +950: $0.10
Florida 3-6 +550: $0.18
-100% ROI

Houston 14-16 +950: $0.15
Houston 10-13 +550: $0.23
Houston 7-9 +700: $0.16
Houston 3-6 +475: $0.26
Houston 1-2 +1000: $0.10
Cincinnati 1-2 +1100: $0.10
+49% ROI

North Carolina 14-16 +1200: $0.15
North Carolina 10-13 +600: $0.23
North Carolina 7-9 +750: $0.16
North Carolina 3-6 +450: $0.26
North Carolina 1-2 +1000: $0.10
Miami FL 1-2 +1000: $0.10
+43% ROI

Gonzaga 3-6 +650: $0.23
Gonzaga 1-2 +1000: $0.12
Kentucky 1-2 +1000: $0.11
Kentucky 3-6 +500: $0.20
Kentucky 7-9 +750: $0.18
Kentucky 10-13 +550: $0.16
+72% ROI




UCF 1-2 +1400: $0.15
Texas Tech 1-2 +1100: $0.24
Texas Tech 3-6 +475: $0.11
Texas Tech 7-9 +700: $0.13
Texas Tech 10-13 +475: $0.22
Texas Tech 14-16 +750: $0.15
+4% ROI

Baylor 3-6 +900: $0.23
Baylor 1-2 +1400: $0.12
Kansas 1-2 +950: $0.11
Kansas 3-6 +425: $0.20
Kansas 7-9 +700: $0.18
Kansas 10-13 +475: $0.16
+5% ROI

Saint Johns 1-2 +1400: $0.15
Marquette 1-2 +1000: $0.24
Marquette 3-6 +475: $0.11
Marquette 7-9 +750: $0.13
Marquette 10-13 +500: $0.22
Marquette 14-16 +800: $0.15
+32% ROI

[Kung Wu]

Only two games today:

Minnesota 3-6 +850: $0.24
Minnesota 1-2 +1300: $0.11
Iowa 1-2 +1000: $0.10
Iowa 3-6 +475: $0.22
Iowa 7-9 +750: $0.16
Iowa 10-13 +550: $0.17
+26% ROI

Seton Hall 3-6 +700: $0.24
Seton Hall 1-2 +1100: $0.11
Villanova 1-2 +1100: $0.10
Villanova 3-6 +500: $0.22
Villanova 7-9 +750: $0.16
Villanova 10-13 +500: $0.17
-100% ROI