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Originally posted by Kung Wu
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Wasn't that your responsibility to check out?
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I think you’re discovering nothing is a for-sure thing, which why even your experiment is still a gamble.
What’s your net profit % at now for the duration?Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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"Enjoy the ride."
- a smart manComment
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Oh yeah, its definitely a gamble. I'm hoping for about 1/3 of these result in an L (-100%), and 2/3 payoff and avg around 77% in the long run. Way too early tell, but I am just literally throwing pennies at it until I have enough data.Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post
I'm on phone but will tally up the ROI at the computer tomorrow.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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All L's tonight, yikes!
Texas Tech played well, even though they lost. If you're gonna lose, lose like that. Tennessee played awful. Like weird awful. And it was a home game.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Finally at the con and got some computer time! Trying these tonight ...
Florida 1-5
Kentucky 1-5
Kentucky 5-10
Kentucky 11-15
New Mexico 1-5
New Mexico 5-10
New Mexico 11-15
Connecticut 6-10
Connecticut 11-15
Connecticut 16-20
Purdue 6-10
Purdue 11-15
Purdue 16-20
Edit: Oh I forgot to mention ... I just tried it, and it accepted $0.10 per bet on each of these. So I only spent $1.30 total today. That's crazy they let you spend so little. It helps me if I actually bet on these because I have the odds recorded that way. If I don't bet I have to write them down to track them over time which is annoying. Plus it gives me incentive to watch some games for fun that I normally wouldn't.Last edited by Kung Wu; January 31, 2024, 06:02 PM.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Florida @ Kentucky paid off at +600 (minus losing bands)Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
Boise @ New Mexico was an L
Providence @ Connecticut paid off +410 (minus losing bands)
Northwestern @ Purdue paid off +420 (minus losing bands)
Net result for last night was a +33% ROI.
I will restart the overall ROI from when I took the 3 Ls the night before (I completely revamped what I was doing), so it would be -17% ROI over those two days.
There aren't really any games that meet my selection criteria, but this one is close enough I'll roll with it just to have something to watch:
Nebraska 1-5, +460
Wisconsin 1-5, +440
Wisconsin 6-10, +480
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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So close! But an L.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
Doing this today:
Creighton 1-5, +500
Creighton 5-6, +360
Creighton 10-16, +440
Will also do the Iowa game if they have margin bands later.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Computer time finally! Looks like they are offering Win Margin bands now for the Iowa game! Sweet!
Took these ...
Ohio State 1-5, +550
Iowa 1-5, +440
Iowa 6-10, +390
I'm on the fence about taking Iowa 11-15, +550. My nerd calcs are saying there is a decent probability of them winning by 11 but then the probabilities taper off quickly for 12-15, so you end up paying a premium to take the whole band just to get the 11 I'm interested in. I wonder if I should taper the bet to compensate for that ... like if I were betting a dollar on each band, I could bet only $0.20 for that last one. Hmmm, maybe that's what I should be doing.
Guess I'll go ahead and take it.
Iowa 11-15, +550Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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I'm trying this today. I'm weighting the bands and adjusting the bet amount based on probability. I'm betting a total of $1 on each game to keep the math simple. Here's an example:Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
Cincinnati 1-5 - $0.37
Texas Tech 1-5 - $0.37
Texas Tech 6-10 - $0.26
Utah St 1-5 - $0.37
San Diego St. 1-5 - $0.37
San Diego St. 6-10 - $0.26
Michigan State 1-5 - $0.37
Michigan State 6-10 - $0.37
Michigan State 11-15 - $0.26
Alabama 1-5 - $0.37
Alabama 6-10 - $0.37
Alabama 11-15 - $0.26Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Well there is a 50% profit boost for any bet in the Duke @ North Carolina game, so I'm including these:
Duke 1-5 - $0.37
North Carolina 1-5 - $0.37 boosted
North Carolina 6-10 - $0.26
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Only two of interest to me today:
Providence 1-5, +500, $0.38
Villanova 1-5, +430, $0.33
Villanova 6-10, +380, $0.29
Illinois 1-5, +500, $0.38
Illinois 6-10, +370, $0.33
Illinois 11-15, +460, $0.29Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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