2022 - Severe Storms (T-Storms and Blizzards)

[wsushox1]

Does anyone think tornadoes alley is shifting back home?

Things are naturally cyclical. But no, I doubt it. Dixie ally will remain the tornado capital of the US for the foreseeable future.

[Kung Wu]

Things are naturally cyclical. But no, I doubt it. Dixie ally will remain the tornado capital of the US for the foreseeable future.

Whoa. Welcome back stranger!

[SB Shock]

Does anyone think tornadoes alley is shifting back home?

Fujita hypothesized that the centroid of tornadoes each year is moving in a cycle. If his modeling is still valid, the cycle would be for it to start pushing back west.

I don't know if anybody has recently picked up his paper and tried to update it to see if the shift to south fits that model or if the drought in the western part of tornado alley has translated the tornado alley further south and east.


tornado.jpg

[SB Shock]

Monday Outlook. There are a lot of conditions that have to occur for storms to impact SC Kansas, but if they do come together, could be another rough night somewhere.

1. What does the overnight/morning convection do?
2. Does it keep the warm front south of KS/OK border (stable)?
3. Where exactly does the warm front setup? If in the warm sector, the atmosphere will be unstable
4. Where is the dryline?


Svr Mon D2.jpg

[SB Shock]

Updated threat for Today (Monday). Similar level of threat as of Friday. Highest threat is northern OK up to the Ks border. The threat will either rise or fall depending on whether the sun comes out or not.

[shock]

F0A63753-9488-4CF5-8948-159D7A4F1897.jpeg

This was taken at my uncles weld shop in Burns the other night.

[ShockerDropOut]

See if this works. I took this Friday looking SW towards Wichita from my back yard. 8BD8E51B-E801-43B5-A4AF-23BBBD46D999.jpeg

[SB Shock]

Storm Prediction center says they are likely (80%) to issue a Tornado Watch for South Central Kansas between 2-3 pm

[SubGod22]

Awesome.

Reed Timmer is targeting north central Oklahoma today. Was surprised that he was in Andover Friday since most were thinking things would be more likely to go off north and east of the area. But he's a lot smarter than most of us when it comes to these things.

I will say props to SG for cancelling the planned testing of the air raid siren this afternoon considering the threat of weather and what we saw late last week. Though I was curious to hear what the difference is. Air raids have never really been considered a threat during my lifetime and I don't recall ever practicing for such as a child. Just fire's and tornadoes at school.

[SB Shock]

Awesome.

Reed Timmer is targeting north central Oklahoma today.

SPC just posted their thoughts on tornado watch for Northern OK - they are 95% sure they will issue one.

[SubGod22]

Also just seen a report that Ark City, Winfield and a couple of other school districts down along/near the border are sending kids home early due to the threat of severe weather. Not sure when that was issued or when they were sent home. Hopefully I was late to seeing it as you'd hate to have a bunch of kids on a bus or trying to get home when things start to fire.

[ShockBand]

Also just seen a report that Ark City, Winfield and a couple of other school districts down along/near the border are sending kids home early due to the threat of severe weather. Not sure when that was issued or when they were sent home. Hopefully I was late to seeing it as you'd hate to have a bunch of kids on a bus or trying to get home when things start to fire.

Derby is running school to the end of the day like normal but cancelling/postponing all evening activities and events. Sadly that means my kid's last C team baseball doubleheader of the year is cancelled and won't get rescheduled. Is there still anywhere around that plays Sr Babe Ruth or Legion baseball for high school age kids? For us, doing the expensive club team travel thing just isn't in the cards.

[SB Shock]

Watch issued for SC Kansas. Sedgwick county is not in it.

Kingman, Harper, Sumner, Barber and Cowley counties in it. Basically south of US54.

The persistent rain this morning has kept things around Sedgwick county stabilized.

[ShockerFever]

Also just seen a report that Ark City, Winfield and a couple of other school districts down along/near the border are sending kids home early due to the threat of severe weather. Not sure when that was issued or when they were sent home. Hopefully I was late to seeing it as you'd hate to have a bunch of kids on a bus or trying to get home when things start to fire.

No offense but this is when the government goes too far because of recency bias. The threat for storms is no worse than any other day and honestly schools might be safer than a lot of homes out there. Not to mention the disruption that it causes when sending kids home when parents are still at work.

I get the whole world we live in now and we have to hypersense and overblow everything but if they’re gonna send kids home from school early today, you might as well have 20 days planned for the whole year to do this then. Friday was a hell a lot of a worse threat than today anyway.

[SubGod22]

No offense but this is when the government goes too far because of recency bias. The threat for storms is no worse than any other day and honestly schools might be safer than a lot of homes out there. Not to mention the disruption that it causes when sending kids home when parents are still at work.

I get the whole world we live in now and we have to hypersense and overblow everything but if they’re gonna send kids home from school early today, you might as well have 20 days planned for the whole year to do this then. Friday was a hell a lot of a worse threat than today anyway.

I don't disagree. Had Andover not been hit on Friday, I doubt you see these kinds of reactions. At least these schools are in the target area, but it is what it is.

And if parents wanted to pick their kids up early because of the weather threat, I'm sure most schools wouldn't mind or hold it against attendance. And many schools probably are safer than some homes.

I don't think schools should necessarily end early like this, but would have no problem with them announcing that you can pick your children up early if you want. I laugh at how many times schools close because their is a prediction of snow and then nothing happens. I remember walking home in a freaking blizzard as a child. They let out early, but the storm moved in earlier than anticipated and you couldn't see more than five feet in front of you. Now they cancel school and kids get to go play outside because nothing actually happened.

I get trying to be safe though. But rushing decisions like this can cause just as many other issues. I don't have kids, so maybe I'm not one to speak on such things.