Severe Weather 2021

[SB Shock]

It seems like a decade since we have a severe weather outbreak and with snow today it doesn't feel likely. But the pattern may be about to shift by the end of the week. Of course I have seen the "pattern going to shift" several times this spring but never materializes. And I do see concerns that some strong cold fronts are going to swing through keep the gulf moisture pipe closed for Kansas.

But I'm tire of the covid chats, time to talk about something else.

[SubGod22]

Even beyond severe weather, it seems like it's been quite a few years since we've had a legit, strong thunderstorm. But I've also said there's a bubble over where I live that pushes stronger storms around us.

[SHOXAAC]

Even beyond severe weather, it seems like it's been quite a few years since we've had a legit, strong thunderstorm. But I've also said there's a bubble over where I live that pushes stronger storms around us.

What side of the turnpike do you live?

[SB Shock]

SPC has picked up on the change and here is their Day 7 outlook. It will change in the coming day (move east, west, north and south), but severe weather prediction it takes a pretty strong signal for them to put this out there this far out.

D7.JPG

[SubGod22]

What side of the turnpike do you live?

Just west

[ShockerFever]

Seems like the last decade or so we get these arctic air masses settle much further south and east than they used to. The jet stream is constantly in northwest flow in the early spring and when it does in fact warm and moist enough, a lot of these systems die out after making it to the Rockies. I don’t know if it’s a fundamental climate type change or just a momentary decade lapse.

But sure has bit into American tornado totals the last several years, particularly in the plains.

With all that said, Tuesday looks interesting, albeit a week out.

[NCAABound]

I thought I heard something awhile back about the dividing line between the typically arid western weather and the moister eastern weather was around Dodge City. They were claiming this line has shifted to around Wichita or even further east now. Wonder if that is impacting the severe weather and pushing more storms to the east/southeast?

[SHOCKvalue]

I thought I heard something awhile back about the dividing line between the typically arid western weather and the moister eastern weather was around Dodge City. They were claiming this line has shifted to around Wichita or even further east now. Wonder if that is impacting the severe weather and pushing more storms to the east/southeast?

Less humidity? FINE with me!

[wufan]

McPherson is protected by the heat put off by the refinery in the SW edge of the city, or so I’ve been told.

[SB Shock]

Updated now 6 days out.

D6.JPG

[SB Shock]

Day 5 - is the exact same as Day 6. Which is concerning, either they didn't update the graphic to the proper or they just didn't know what to do with the forecast so they decided to hang tight to see what additional models runs show leading up to Day 4.

D5.JPG

[ShockerFever]

Or the models staying surprisingly consistent this far out.

[SB Shock]

D4.JPG Day 4 outlook

[ShockerFever]

Turning into a slowly progressive positively tilted junkfest

[SB Shock]

Turning into a slowly progressive positively tilted junkfest

Yip. No doubt somebody might get severe weather, but no worthy of SPC to hype it 7 days out.