Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

So you're projecting every single person in the United States will be infected?

I'm just pointing out when people are cavalier about saying it only going to be 1% who will die, what that really means. It sounds like a really small number, but in reality, it is not.

There are projections that 60-80% of U.S. could contract it without mitigation.

[SB Shock]

Ok, so to everyone that's freaking out about this.....

What is not being done? What would put you at ease?

Actually there are several things

1. Actually get the ability to test. The U.S. government dropped the ball on that. They were supposed to be setting up 5 cities as "sentinel sites" to be monitoring for the spread into the U.S. in Jan and February for early warning. Instead of adopting proven test kits they choose to go with their own that could only be analyzed at the CDC. They were defective. And they lost the ability to get early warning and now there is a community spread in Seattle and probably parts of California. They are now letting private laboratories run their own tests and maybe this week they will be able to test in large numbers. The U.S. as of today had only done approximately 1500-1600 tests. S.K. can conduct 10,000 tests per day and have the ability to do drive-thru tests where they can get results within 10-15 minutes.

2. Start screening international flights. Right now the Trump administration is depending on countries of origin to do the screening (partly because - see No. 1). For a president who is so concerned about the border wall is going to depend on other countries to make that decision - doesn't make sense.

3. Start public information ads on proper hygiene (washing hands, coughing into sleeves, etc). This is very low tech but can be effective in slowing the spread. Japan has already seen a significant decrease in flu do their PSA on proper hygiene.

4. Provide state and local government guidelines and support at what point they should close schools, require employers to go to telework, and cancel large public events. This at the moment is entirely being left up to local governments with no guidance as of yet from the federal government. Those in the health field have been asking for a systematic plan.

5. Propose an economic plan for those cities or states that are being hit the hardest by the outbreak so they won't be afraid to take strong mitigation steps.

[1979Shocker]

5 lawmakers, several congressional staffers self-quarantine after coronavirus exposure

[1979Shocker]

Trump had contact with congressmen Collins and Gaetz before they self-quarantined over coronavirus concerns

[jdmee]

I'm just pointing out when people are cavalier about saying it only going to be 1% who will die, what that really means. It sounds like a really small number, but in reality, it is not.

There are projections that 60-80% of U.S. could contract it without mitigation.

There is a long way to go to hit that number. Especially given that China's worst hit province is at 0.114%. China is at 0.0566% The world is at 0.00135%. And the US is at 0.000129%

[DCShockerFan05]

There is a long way to go to hit that number. Especially given that China's worst hit province is at 0.114%. China is at 0.0566% The world is at 0.00135%. And the US is at 0.000129%

Yup. Let's do what we can to keep it that way.

Can't speak for SB but I think the point is that it COULD be really bad if we don't take it seriously. And soon--exponential growth is a *****.

If China's not lying about its numbers (big if), the super-aggressive quarantines/social distancing seem to have paid off in a dramatic reduction in transmission. Italy is now repeating the experiment--we'll see how the numbers trend there.

[Kung Wu]

Keep an eye on South Korea. That's closest to our future.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%

Few countries with significant testing capacity are reporting mortality rates above 2%, but Italy has proven an outlier.

Even when taking the current estimated global mortality rate of 3.4% at face value, COVID-19 looks more like influenza than other once-novel coronaviruses.

A more complete—and, hopefully, less severe—picture of COVID-19 will likely emerge as the outbreak continues, testing capacity increases and data are refined. Until then, stay calm and keep washing your hands.

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

[Napoleon Dynamite]

Per Fox Business News, South Korea has 53 deaths out of 7,500 cases.

It's time to stop the panic and the fear mongering.

[Kung Wu]

The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%

Few countries with significant testing capacity are reporting mortality rates above 2%, but Italy has proven an outlier.

It's still a little too early to draw conclusions from South Korea, IMHO. Could swing either way for various reasons. But they have oversampled substantially, which means the data coming out of there is solid, in my mind. Now it's just a matter of letting the virus run its course a little, and then you have a solid model. They are the only country I know of that has oversampled in any meaningful way (not saying other countries haven't, I just don't know about them --maybe DCShockerFan05 knows?).

[Kung Wu]

Per Fox Business News, South Korea has 53 deaths out of 7,500 cases.

It's time to stop the panic and the fear mongering.

One reason that it may be too early to get excited about South Korea's results is that something like 85% of results came in only 10 days ago (and the virus lasts longer than that so there may still be deaths driving up the numerator). I won't feel comfortable with the numbers out of S.K. for another week -- but that's my uneducated opinion. That's the one we need to keep an eye on though -- again in my uneducated opinion.

[wufan]

Yup. Let's do what we can to keep it that way.

Can't speak for SB but I think the point is that it COULD be really bad if we don't take it seriously. And soon--exponential growth is a *****.

If China's not lying about its numbers (big if), the super-aggressive quarantines/social distancing seem to have paid off in a dramatic reduction in transmission. Italy is now repeating the experiment--we'll see how the numbers trend there.

China is definitely lying...it’s just to what degree.

[wufan]

Per this site, 51 dead and 166 cases recovered in S Korea. That’s over 20% of resolved cases (assuming all positives were hospitalized) leading to death.

[DCShockerFan05]

I admit I've haven't been watching South Korea as closely. From what I understand, there's a very aggressive and well-resourced testing regimen there which does two things: As noted above, it counts more mild cases, thereby reducing the calculated CFR. It also allows for more targeted quarantines/isolations, since you're catching more cases and can intervene. If the US can get testing capacity up quickly, and we continue to take action when we do find cases, we can hope for similar results. Remember that the whole point is to keep it out of high-risk populations--that's probably the biggest thing that will swing the ultimate fatality ratio. Italy is the 5th oldest country in the world by median age, btw.

One thing that's a little weird about the South Korean situation is that a very large proportion of cases there have been linked to a single religious sect---that probably makes it easier to target testing and containment efforts. It'll be interesting to see how other clusters behave.

In any case, I'm hopeful that we'll get a ROK scenario rather than an Italian one, but it depends on coordinated public response and an acknowledgement that the threat is serious, which is exactly the point I keep trying to make.

Serious threat + serious response = acceptable outcome.
Unserious threat + serious response = acceptable outcome.
Serious threat + unserious response = bad news.

[Kung Wu]

The fourth chart down is titled "COVID-19 cases in South Korea". It has an orange bar representing total number of cases in SK and deaths plus recoveries. We can watch that on a daily basis and learn a TON about how this virus affects the human population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...in_South_Korea

Edit: I should mention this is the 3rd chart down under the Statistics section.