Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

The fall surge (in America) is due to seasonal behavior changes and holiday gatherings. This fact is not being debated. The mutation is new on our shores. Any affect it has will be added to an already out-of-control situation.

LOL, you are so clueless. You do not even understand the science, you are just a fear monger.

[ShockerFever]

H

You can quit hyper-ventilating. Things are getting better. Trust the science.

Here is the R numbers a month ago for the U.S.

covid-r-1month.JPG

Here is the latest numbers. All trending good.

covid-r-latest.JPG

And here is the Kansas numbers. Under 1.0

covid-r-ks.JPG

I’ll go ahead and predict what he’s going to say.

”we haven’t seen this mutation yet. This was the first case”.

Of course, that’s not that believable considering the case is some hillbilly in rural Colorado who has no travel history. Yep, definitely the first case

[C0|dB|00ded]

I was told to expect 4-5000 deaths per day by Christmas. Amazing how many times the worst case scenarios don’t happen. And nothing about it from the experts who were tooting their horns about it weeks ago. That’s Fear Mongering 101.

Has India fallen off the map yet?

Tone down the hyperbole. The daily deaths have exceeded most legit modeler's worst fears and it's not going to get better for a while. You have been on the wrong side of reality for the duration of this pandemic. I envy you in some respects. But make no mistake, you shouldn't be speaking AT anybody. There's only a couple people (and I'm being generous when I say "couple") in this entire thread who have been consistently accurate from the onset. "We" will continue to parrot and interpret the nation's best scientific opinions, and we will continue to receive abuse for it from what is an echo chamber of self-delusion.

[ShockerFever]

Tone down the hyperbole. The daily deaths have exceeded most legit modeler's worst fears and it's not going to get better for a while. You have been on the wrong side of reality for the duration of this pandemic. I envy you in some respects. But make no mistake, you shouldn't be speaking AT anybody. There's only a couple people (and I'm being generous when I say "couple") in this entire thread who have been consistently accurate from the onset. "We" will continue to parrot and interpret the nation's best scientific opinions, and we will continue to receive abuse for it from what is an echo chamber of self-delusion.

The hyperbole? Those are literal quotes pulled from your keyboard in this thread. Don’t get mad at me that those damn death counts didn’t come to fruition. Maybe don’t go worst case scenario, constant negative, narcissist mode all of the time. Then maybe some face can be saved. You ignoring the things you’ve stated which turned out to be untrue and then coming back with I’m the “rightest” person on this board just proves that your words are garbage. It’s impossible to admit a mistake. It’s fine though. Everybody is used to your internet persona.

But seriously though, is India gonna make it? I was told directly in this thread that it’s not gonna be a pretty sight for them.

[C0|dB|00ded]

The hyperbole? Those are literal quotes pulled from your keyboard in this thread. Don’t get mad at me that those damn death counts didn’t come to fruition. Maybe don’t go worst case scenario, constant negative, narcissist mode all of the time. Then maybe some face can be saved. You ignoring the things you’ve stated which turned out to be untrue and then coming back with I’m the “rightest” person on this board just proves that your words are garbage. It’s impossible to admit a mistake. It’s fine though. Everybody is used to your internet persona.

But seriously though, is India gonna make it? I was told directly in this thread that it’s not gonna be a pretty sight for them.

Nope.

I've made one error in this thread so far, and it was in regards to a probability formula I was discussing w/ KW.

If you have some down time, feel free to reread all my posts in here and look for a mistake. You might even learn something new in the process.

India is #3 in the world in most "listed" deaths w/ nearly 150k. Considering they are 3rd world, I suspect there's a few more to be found... And no, it clearly hasn't been a pretty sight for them. When I made the call they had a fraction of the deaths they have today. I will admit though, I expected them to be #1 in the world. How embarrassing that we have the Covidiot Championship Games sealed up. Although... it's possible that India has far more deaths than listed considering how many ways this virus can kill - particularly w/ blood clotting. If they did an excess death count, it would be interesting to see. I would not be shocked if they found hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.

Narcissism has nothing to do with posting facts, it also has nothing to do with being very careful w/ the information you share. I have no insecurities on the issue and no desire to harm others therefore any calls of "narcissist mode" are without merit. We've discussed this already though. You really need to reread my posts. Off to work you!

[ShockerFever]

Can I get a crayon graph on the latest trends in India at least?

[C0|dB|00ded]

Can I get a crayon graph on the latest trends in India at least?

Like I've always said, all you have to do is ask nicely.



Autographed too!

Here's what happened with India:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/30/950880445/even-with-10-million-covid-19-cases-a-doctor-says-india-dodged-a-bullet

Even With 10 Million COVID-19 Cases, A Doctor Says India 'Dodged A Bullet'

Although India's COVID-19 case numbers and deaths are grim, the country has "dodged a bullet," in the pandemic.

That's according to Dr. Gagandeep Kang, an infectious diseases researcher at the Christian Medical College in Vellore, India, who has worked extensively on vaccine development.

With more than 10 million coronavirus cases, India has the second-highest infection load in the world after the United States. Nearly 150,000 people have died in India after testing positive for the virus, the third-highest death toll in the world after the U.S. and Brazil.

But Kang says that's much less than what she had feared. And now she and other scientists want to know why.

India has a population of 1.4 billion people. With less than 7,500 coronavirus cases per million people and a COVID-19 fatality rate of just below 1.5%, India's per capita infections and mortality rate are among the lowest in the world.

"[The virus] could have been completely out of control in India," she says.

You said that India has been very lucky when it comes to COVID-19. Why is that?

There may be many explanations for that. It could be our age structure, that we have much fewer elderly people and therefore mortality and severe disease in the population was relatively low. We were hit later in the pandemic so we had a better opportunity to prepare. We may have prior exposure to other coronaviruses which may have led this disease to be less severe. We seem to have higher rates of asymptomatic infection so it may also mean that the virus is behaving differently in our population.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-was-consuming-india-until-nearly-everyone-started-wearing-masks-11609329603

Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks

One of the world’s most boisterous and diverse democracies has embraced a proven pandemic strategy with little debate

NEW DELHI—In September, India was reporting almost 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, with many predicting it would soon pass the U.S. in overall cases. Instead, its infections dropped and are now at one-fourth that level.

India has brought down its virus numbers, despite often being too crowded for social distancing, having too many cases for effective contact tracing and an economy that isn’t well equipped to weather long lockdowns.

One of the main reasons, Indian health officials say, is that the country has managed to encourage and enforce almost universal acceptance of masks without much debate.

From the moment the pandemic landed in this South Asian nation, politicians and health experts have been united about the importance of masks, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Until you have a vaccine, you have a social vaccine, and the social vaccine is the mask,” said Health Minister Harsh Vardhan, pointing to his mask and repeating the mantra he uses in speeches addressing the nation.

Compliant, younger, stricter mask enforcement, and consistent leadership.

[ShockerFever]

Another case of the “luck”. That seems to happen a lot with these dire predictions.

Still haven’t encountered a place in public yet in the last 5 months that 2% or less of the people I saw werent wearing masks. And yet our cases continued to go up.

Makes sense. Those lucky Indians.

[shoxlax]

Ha! I appreciate that Doc! The second Feverite arrived about 6 weeks ago. We don’t believe in stop gaps apparently.

She does indeed and I will pass the sentiments along to her. Thanks a lot!

Congrats Fev! Let me know if they need a Shockernet Godfather

[shoxlax]

Another case of the “luck”. That seems to happen a lot with these dire predictions.

Still haven’t encountered a place in public yet in the last 5 months that 2% or less of the people I saw werent wearing masks. And yet our cases continued to go up.

Makes sense. Those lucky Indians.

I keep hearing of these tales of people not wearing them in QT and can think of maybe one time in the last five months I’ve witnessed such an incident. This coming from somebody that is at that place 3-4 times per week.

[ShockerFever]

Congrats Fev! Let me know if they need a Shockernet Godfather

Thanks lax! I’ll keep that nugget in the holster.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Another case of the “luck”. That seems to happen a lot with these dire predictions.

Still haven’t encountered a place in public yet in the last 5 months that 2% or less of the people I saw werent wearing masks. And yet our cases continued to go up.

Makes sense. Those lucky Indians.

We had entire cities throughout the summer where mask wearing was sparse.

I don't know which "dire predictions" you're following that don't come to pass, but the ones I follow have not only been met but exceeded this fall. We're looking at the real possibility of 500k dead now by spring. Someone on this board once tried to bet me a grand we wouldn't hit 500k. I still can't believe my eyes when I see over 3k deaths in a single day. Those are real people; somebody's mother, father, brother, sister, son, daughter. It's not just a number. Yet we have people on this very board discussing their plans to celebrate New Years with "friends"... I mean...

What a ****ing nightmare. People dropping like flies and 10's of millions who still don't even believe Covid is real. Meanwhile, people like myself continue to isolate, visiting my folks for a bit over Christmas (and my birthday), sitting in a 40 degree garage (two doors cracked), 15 feet apart... with a portable heater.

[C0|dB|00ded]

I keep hearing of these tales of people not wearing them in QT and can think of maybe one time in the last five months I’ve witnessed such an incident. This coming from somebody that is at that place 3-4 times per week.

There's good mask law adherence in the Wichita area. You'll see it decline rapidly in the suburbs and in some small Kansas towns you can go into a store and see more without masks than with. Check out Independence, Ks. for instance.

[ShockerFever]

We had entire cities throughout the summer where mask wearing was sparse.

I don't know which "dire predictions" you're following that don't come to pass, but the ones I follow have not only been met but exceeded this fall. We're looking at the real possibility of 500k dead now by spring. Someone on this board once tried to bet me a grand we wouldn't hit 500k. I still can't believe my eyes when I see over 3k deaths in a single day. Those are real people; somebody's mother, father, brother, sister, son, daughter. It's not just a number. Yet we have people on this very board discussing their plans to celebrate New Years with "friends"... I mean...

What a ****ing nightmare. People dropping like flies and 10's of millions who still don't even believe Covid is real. Meanwhile, people like myself continue to isolate, visiting my folks for a bit over Christmas (and my birthday), sitting in a 40 degree garage (two doors cracked), 15 feet apart... with a portable heater.

Do you really want me to go through the list? Why can’t you just ever admit to being wrong or humbled? It’s a horrible character flaw when trying to convince people to follow your every move and piece of advice.

My question is why haven’t we been wearing masks before? Look how many lives we’re saving from the flu this year.

Oh wait. Those lives don’t matter as much. Only the ones grabbing the headlines.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Do you really want me to go through the list? Why can’t you just ever admit to being wrong or humbled? It’s a horrible character flaw when trying to convince people to follow your every move and piece of advice.

My question is why haven’t we been wearing masks before? Look how many lives we’re saving from the flu this year.

Oh wait. Those lives don’t matter as much. Only the ones grabbing the headlines.

Bro, you seriously have some kind of undiagnosed (or diagnosed) cognitive defect. I've asked you on numerous occasions to feel free to point out any discrepancy you find in the guidance I have offered and I would address it. The only character flaw I have as it relates to this discussion is my willingness to continually cast pearls before swine.

My question is why haven’t we been wearing masks before? Look how many lives we’re saving from the flu this year.

Ooh! That's an easy one! Let me answer that for you real quick: BECAUSE THIS ISN'T THE FLU YOU MENTALIST.

Have a nice day!