KC Royals - July

[RoyalShock]

I speak for myself, but know that a lot of Royals fans feel the same way.

Players who 1. don't play into the future (2012/2013 and beyond) and/or 2. play a position that one of the highly-touted prospects in the upper minors is expected to occupy, are perfect trade candidates.

Why are they perfect trade candidates? Well, since they are in a KC uniform this year, they will be inexpensive acquisitions to other teams and may bring at least a marginally talented prospect into the system. If the player is under control for another year or two, even better. Should they continue to play well, they will be expensive for KC to re-sign.

As for veteran presence, we have Butler, Gordon, Soria and Paulino.

All that said, KC (and fans) would like to keep one of Cabrera or Frenchy, since Wil Myers is not likely to be ready for the majors until mid-to-late 2012, at the earliest. I expect one of them to go and Cain to get called up.

That leaves Chen and Francis. Francis is having a typical, close-to-ML-average season. Chen continues to pitch better than his career numbers would indicate. Projecting either one to continue is risky and if someone is willing to offer you good value, a trade makes sense. Duffy and Paulino look like solid rotation guys going forward. Hochevar has another year to, hopefully, get better. Montgomery is showing progress in Omaha again. Plus, they'll have Odirizzi, Arguellas and a surgically-repaired Lamb in a couple of years when they should be expected to be a playoff contender.

You could spend some of that saved salary on resigning Chen/Francis for the next two seasons (which may or may not be contending ones), or you could put it toward getting a true #1 and possibly #2 starter on the FA or trade market. I wouldn't be surprised in the offseason to see Butler and a prospect traded for one.

I really think the strategy is to see how many of the young guys look like they are going to be successful major-leaguers. Then it becomes more clear what their needs will be and they can start spending money on free agents who by then will be more open to playing in KC without overpaying.

[SubGod22]

You trade one of the OFs to make room for Cain. The other stays until Myers is ready. There are a few other OFs that project decently as well.

You keep one of the two lefty pitchers. You may not get anything great, but you're looking at a lineup next year that should probably look like: Duffy, Montgomery, Paulino, Francis/Chen, Hochevar/Crow.

It's more about creating space for the kids than anything. I know many don't like Butler as a full time DH because he doesn't hit a lot of HRs. One of the articles in the last week or so showed that Butler is, from a productivity standpoint, one of the better DHs in the league. He may not hit for as much power as we'd like, but he hits .300 and will drive in runs if people in front of him will get on base. That's been his biggest problem the last few years. Now that the offense is coming around, Billy should put up better RBI numbers. This is probably his worst hitting year he's ever had, and I think he's still leading the team in AVG, or close to it.

KC is hoping next year they'll begin to make a move, but 2013 is the target year that we should see them make a run. At that point, you have Cain and Myers in the OF and Giavotella at 2B. Odorizzi, Chapman and Hererra on the pitching staff. It's early, and they're young, but a staff of Duffy, Monty, Odorizzi, Paulino and Crow/Hochevar doesn't sound too bad right now. Lamb could be in the mix sometime in '13. Dwyer may be on the staff somewhere. Melville, Marks, Arguelles and Adams could be options somewhere. And there are others just behind them. Heck, even Mendoza has pitched pretty well in Omaha this year.

I don't think KC wants to go spend big on FAs and block the young talent they've been talking about all this time. If something happens and they see a hole that need filled I'd expect Dayton to find someone, but all positions appear to have pretty good depth and options close.

OF - Gordon, Cain, Myers, Lough, Robinson, Bonifacio, Brian Fletcher, Elier Hernandez, Patrick Leonard, Dyson, Merrifield. That's not mentioning Frenchy or Melky. One will stay one more year at least.
MI - Escobar, Colon, Giavotella, Aviles, Zawadzki, Alex McClure, Calixte, Antonio, Humberto Argeaga and Adalberto Mondesi (if we do in fact sign him), Bianchi, Navarro, Seratelli.
3B - Moose, Stovall.
1B - Hos, Robinson, Whittleman.
C - Pina, Perez, Rodriguez.

Most of these guys are either playing, or within a year or two. I think everyone listed could have a shot within 3. Obviously, not all will pan out and some will be traded for possible pieces. I may have missed a few names as well.

Possible starters - Duffy, Monty, Paulino, Crow, Hochevar, Odorizzi, Melville, Mendoza, SOS, Teaford, Miner, Pucetas, Dwyer, Jeffress, Lamb, Osuna, W. Smith, Arguelles, Mariot, Marks, Pimentel, Sample.

Relievers - Mario Santiago, Sisk, Baez, Chapman, Herrera, Hardy, Keating, Lafferty, Coleman, Soria, Collins, Wood, Odenbach.

Again, I believe most of these guys, potentially, could be ready to be called up within 2 years. Pitchers are tough. Some of the guys listed as starters could end up in the pen on not be around obviously. But you can see why the organization is hesitant to go spend big money on a big contract. They have a lot of guys that they like in the system. And I'm sure I've missed a few. Most of this is just coming from the top of my head and glancing back at a couple of things.

[SubGod22]

Work kept getting in my way. I think Royal probably said it better than I.

[SubGod22]

Royals Today: 7/22/11.

Maybe it’s not The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, but trading season has to rank in the top five. The rumors, the intrigue, the possibility that some GM will lose his mind and trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, or agree to pick up Matt Morris’ salary…if you’re a baseball fan, you have to love it. Say what you want about the NFL, but the almost complete lack of trades in that league is a big point in favor of major league baseball.


If you’re a Royals fan, you’re used to the drill – look over the roster, find the guys who are in the last year or two of their contract, and hope the Royals can trade each of them for anything of value. Some days you wind up with Tim Collins; most days you end up with Joselo Diaz or Blake Johnson.


Dayton Moore kicked off the season Wednesday by trading Wilson Betemit, who he evidently just realized was still on the roster. (Forgive him for not noticing – since Moustakas was called up on June 9th, Betemit had all of 23 at-bats in six weeks.) The Tigers were high on the list of teams looking to upgrade at third base, so it was a natural fit.


In return, the Royals got left-handed swingman Antonio Cruz, and catcher Julio Rodriguez. From Dayton Moore’s comments, you’d think Rodriguez was the more important player in the deal. He has a strong arm (he’s thrown out 36% of attempted basestealers in his career), and is hitting .283/.325/.354 in the Florida State League. He’s a prospect in the sense that he’ll probably make the majors, but his upside seems to be that of a defense-first backup catcher. He has no power – five home runs in 276 professional games – and swings at everything; his career high in walks is 14. If he were 20 years old – as the Royals mistakenly stated in their press release – I would be higher on him, but he’s actually 21, and turns 22 in a few weeks.


And as future backup catchers go, I don’t think Rodriguez profiles even as well as Manny Pina, who the Royals acquired in their trade of hard-throwing bad boy Danny Gutierrez two years ago. At the time, Pina was just a few months older than Rodriguez is now, and he was hitting .259/.313/.393 in Double-A. Pina has more power than Rodriguez, and was not quite as impatient at the plate. Pina has spent all of this season in Omaha, and has mysteriously started drawing walks at an unprecedented rate – he has 25 walks in just 160 at-bats, with a line of .238/.354/.381. (He’s sort of the Matt Treanor of Triple-A.)


Pina is already on the 40-man roster, and would be the obvious call-up if Treanor or Brayan Pena got hurt. He just turned 24. I don’t really see what Rodriguez brings to the table that the Royals can’t get from Pina, so I don’t see his acquisition as anything more than organizational depth.


Cruz is the more interesting player, if for no other reason than 1) he’s left-handed and 2) he’s 19. His numbers are nice but not spectacular; he’s got a 3.11 ERA in the Midwest League, with 68 hits, 28 walks, and 58 Ks in 75 innings. The scouting reports I’ve seen suggest that he typically throws 89-91, but can dial it up to 93-94 on occasion, and he has a developing curveball. He’s been a reliever for most of his (brief) pro career, and unless he adds velocity it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a reliever in the end. But he’s young enough that you can dream on him.


Neither player was listed among the Tigers’ Top 30 Prospects by Baseball America before the season, but I wouldn’t make too much of that. Young players, particularly Latin American players who don’t have a draft status to trumpet, can have their prospect status change quickly. Kelvin Herrera barely made the Royals’ Top 30 this winter, and now he’s clearly a Top 15 guy – granted, he was hurt most of the last two years, but no one expected him to be this dominant this quickly. Yordano Ventura wasn’t in the Royals Top 30 before the 2010 season; a year later he was in 12th in a loaded system. Rey Navarro wasn’t in the Royals’ Top 30 this past winter, and you could make a case for him in the Royals’ Top 10 today. I don’t think either Cruz or Rodriguez have made that kind of jump, but I’d expect Cruz at least to vie for a spot in the Royals’ Top 30.

[SubGod22]

Are the Royals improving despite their record?

After yesterday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Royals sit at an unimpressive but completely expected 42-59. A little math tells us that they are on pace to go 67-95. Again. According to the official results on the field, this franchise hasn’t improved for the 16th year in a row. If you open up the sports page and glance at the standings, you’d be perfectly justified to close the paper in disgust and say “of course” and sigh. It’s a summer ritual across the metropolitan Kansas City area as regular and welcome as 100 degree days with rain-forest humidity.

Fortunately, we have a bit more information at our fingertips these days than a printed page landing on our doorstep. We have the internet and we can delve more deeply into these numbers and see exactly what’s going on. With individual players, we can look at their peripheral stats to see if they’re having bad luck or if they’ve changed their plate approach and improvement is on the horizon. The good news is that there is some actual hope bubbling just under the surface, all we have to do is take a look.

Runs. They’re the king of all statistics. You can only win games by scoring more than your opponent. From wOBA to WAR to RBI to ERA+ they all boil down to scoring or preventing runs. While losing a game by 10 runs or 1 run counts as an L in the standings, all losses and all losing is not created equal. So, while the Royals are losing, are they losing better or worse than in years past? Let’s take a look.

First, let’s start with how the team is scoring runs. In 2011 the Royals have scored 437 runs which averages out to 4.33 runs per game. If we compare that to previous years, it’s the most runs per game they’ve scored since 2007 (4.36). However, that’s not the entire story. The run environment has been changing so we also have to compare the Royals runs per game to the League average. In 2011, they’re scoring 0.03 runs per game more than the average American League team. They haven’t had an above average offense since 2003 (0.30). Below is a chart detailing these numbers since 2000.

[SubGod22]

And Then There's Kyle

What Kyle did last night, maybe more than anything, was throw his off-speed pitches for effective strikes. Thirteen of eighteen changups were strikes and twelve of seventeen curves found the zone. While the percentage of pitches thrown was not much different than usual, the Red Sox batters ‘felt’ like Davies was hardly throwing the fastball at all.

Perception over reality.

I guess that statement applies to Kyle Davies more often than not.

[SubGod22]

Assessing the Gap

On Monday, Nick wrote that while the Royals’ won-loss record was not any better than last year the team was still showing some signs of improvement. Last night’s game excepted, I think he is right.

While just how much the Royals need to improve to become a playoff team can pretty easily be determined by simply looking at the standings, but for a little more depth I turned to overall WAR (wins above replacement level at Fangraphs).

In 2010, only one team in the American League (Chicago) with a .500 or better record had its position players account for less that 23 WAR. The Yankees led the way with 33.5 WAR from the position players. In fact, the top nine teams in positional WAR were the nine AL teams with records of .500 or better. Chicago’s 18.1 WAR, the lowest of any of the nine, was still well ahead of the 2010 Royals’ mark of 12.9.

Thus far in 2011, the Royals are up to 8th in the American League in positional WAR at 14.5: tied with Detroit and ahead of Cleveland, but lagging well back of the Red Sox and their league leading 28.5. Improvement has been made, particularly within the division, but plenty is left to be done as well.

When it comes to pitching, the picture is not a lot different. With the exception of the 2010 Angels (wh0 were 80-82), the top WAR staffs belonged to teams with winning records. Chicago led the way with 24.9 WAR with the Athletics at the bottom of the winners with a staff WAR of 13.1. The Royals checked in at 11.7.

The White Sox are leading the way again in 2011 with their hurlers racking up 17.0 WAR thus far. The winners are spread out some this year, with the hapless Mariners fourth in pitching WAR while the Indians and Rays have yet to make double figures. The Royals are next to last with a staff WAR of just 6.6.

What this very rudimentary analysis tells us is that, as a team, a contender needs to be pushing into the high thirties in WAR and to be truly legitimate you have to be up into the forties by season end. The Royals, who have languished in the twenties for years have a good 15 WAR to make up.

[SubGod22]

Francoeur not paying attention to trade rumors

BOSTON -- Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur figures he's given at least six or seven interviews about being traded in just the three days he's been in Boston -- probably a natural consequence because Red Sox right fielder J.D. Drew is on the 15-day disabled list.

"Like anything, there's always stuff thrown around, there are always people throwing out ideas, and once it's going, they kind of run with it," Francoeur said.

"But with me, I've planned on being here the whole year and next year, and I don't plan on going anywhere."

[SubGod22]

Fun With the Trade Deadline

Some of you have no interest in trade rumors and just plain random speculation and it can get pretty overwhelming this time of year. Between tweets and posts from reporters with some inside knowledge to those who simply speculate to just random comments on various sites that suddenly come back around as legitimate rumors – assuming a rumor can ever be categorized as ‘legitimate’ – the whole July trade deadline can simply wear a person out.

That said, if you are one who disdains speculation or are just plain grumpy about the trade deadline and all that comes with it, then this is not the column for you.

The Royals appear to be leaning towards not doing much at the deadline. Dayton Moore, thus far anyway, has stuck to his guns about wanting near major league ready starting pitching in return for either Melky Cabrera or Jeff Francouer. It is not a horrible idea as Cabrera has been outstanding and Francouer okay: maybe somebody will panic and overpay. While I would like to see what Lorenzo Cain can do as much as anyone, an outfield of Gordon-Cabrera-Francouer has proven quite capable this season.

The consensus I am getting from within the organization as well as outside of it is that ‘staying the course’ and ‘trusting The Process’ is still the plan. Dayton Moore has publicly stated that expects to field a contending team made up of mostly homegrown players over the next few seasons. If it all works as planned, then staying the course is exactly the way to go. IF….

What about an alternative plan of action? This might be labeled as bold, risky or just plain stupid and let me state that everything from here on out is mostly just pure speculation from the tortured caverns of this blogger’s mind.

[SubGod22]

Hosmer taming fabled ballparks with homers

The left-handed-hitting first baseman got his fourth four-RBI game, most on the club. In his first 71 games, he's knocked in 45 runs, which among American League rookies put him behind only the Angels' Mark Trumbo, who has 48 RBIs but has played in 25 more games.

"When you hit in the middle of the lineup, that's your job, to drive in runs," Hosmer said. "One thing that [Yost] and [Jeff Francoeur] and the older guys have been telling me is just worry about driving in runs and the rest of the numbers will be there. But the main stat to look at it is runs batted in."

Hosmer is currently batting fourth after hitting third 34 times.

"It's a credit to the lineup, guys getting on in front of me and I'm coming up a lot with guys on first and second, or second and third a lot, and that's helped," he said. "[Alex Gordon] and Melky [Cabrera] and those guys have been setting the table for me."

Hosmer went into Thursday's game with an eight-game streak (17-for-35, .486) in which he had eight RBIs.

[SubGod22]

Bo Fishing caption contest today. Great pic from the SI Vault.

[SubGod22]

This Close to Being Good

I’ve learned something about the Royals over the last week and a half or so. They are really close to being a good team. There’s been a lot of talk over the last couple of years about when it would be that we’d be able to finally see a winner in Kansas City, and the prevailing answer has been that things will start to get good in 2012 and that by 2013 the Royals should be competing for division titles. I’m not going to get too deep here about whether or not that’s too long because there’s just not a whole lot we can do about it at this point. What I am going to say is that over the last ten games, the Royals have faced teams with a combined winning percentage of .545. I’ll give you that the Red Sox help that number as a lot as the Rays and White Sox are both hovering around .500. Anyway, in that time, the Royals have gone 6-4.

It’s tough to get too down on the Royals getting bludgeoned by the Red Sox on Tuesday and Wednesday because that’s simply what the Red Sox do. At 64-39, they have the second best record in all of baseball and that’s coming off their 2-10 start that everybody made way too much of. That means they’ve gone 62-29 since then. For those of you scoring at home, we call that silly good. The point is that we saw exactly what can happen for the Royals when they actually get good pitching performances. It seems so obvious to say that I can’t believe I’m centering an entire blog post about it, but if the Royals can get some pitching ASAP, they can be competitive in the American League Central as soon as next season.

Looking ahead to the 2011/2012 free agents, there isn’t much out there. You can go get a Mark Buehrle, but I think whoever signs him will overpay dramatically for a pitcher on the back end of his career. That’s not to say that he won’t perform well for whoever gets him, but he’s just not the pitcher he once was and will get a contract based more on his name than what he will do over the next three seasons. I think the Royals need to cash in some of their prospects right now and get a big gun starting pitcher on the trade market. I should amend that. It doesn’t have to be right now. They can wait until the off-season, but they need to go out and get a legitimate big league pitcher who they can plug into the rotation and be comfortable that they have at least a number two starter.

For the right price I wouldn't be against packaging a couple of prospects for a reliable 1 or 2 starter. But they need to be smart about it as well. I don't know if we need two more starters though. That's the tough question management will have to decide. I like Duffy and Paulino. Hochevar could be in the mix. Crow will get a shot. Monty will get a shot. Odorizzi isn't that far off. Sometime next season is a real posibility.

Do we bring in a starter (New Guy) and go with a rotation of New Guy, Duffy, Paulino, Hochevar/Crow/Monty? Does that look too bad? Granted, right now we don't know what Crow can do as a starter at this level. It hasn't been pretty at lower levels. Monty has struggled this year but they've been working on some things. Hochevar is up and down. Maybe one other middle of the rotation type wouldn't be a bad plan. At least long enough to develop a couple of those guys or have Odorizzi ready. Not sure if anyone else looks to play a part next year. Although Mendoza has been pitching VERY well in Omaha. I believe his ERA is under 3.

[SubGod22]

Water Cooler Talk Texas Rangers and Soria

I could end up looking like more of a jack ass than I already am on this one…But, I really m not buying that the Royals are not discussing Jack Soria with the Rangers. Texas is run by some very bright baseball guys and they know the value of a closer in the post season. With the recent struggles of Neftali Feliz (and the eventual move to put him in the rotation) the Rangers have the opportunity to add a closer that can handle the duties for them for the next 3 years. Yes, I know that they are in on Heath Bell….I have heard that they could bring Huston Street home but none have the pedigree of Soria in my opinion.


The Royals, on the other hand, should have traded Soria awhile ago but now there is no reason to not trade him with the depth of relief pitchers this team has. I believe there are 3 pitchers in this organization that could close in Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland. Now, even if you move Soria a future pen (if Crow makes it as a SP) of Wood, Collins, Coleman, Chapman, Herrera, and Holland is pretty damn good.

If there is one Achilles heel of Dayton Moore it would seem to be him waiting to long and the door either closes or the return is sub par. He should of and could have traded Bannister, Mahay, and Dejesus for more than he got (nothing in the case of the first 2) Of course, the worry is would he get fleeced on Soria by the Rangers….let’s hope not and if this trade does go down here is who I would expect...

[RoyalShock]

What an offensive outburst tonight. Of course, they get a great pitching performance when they didn't need one.

Butler hit 2 HRs giving him 5 in the last four games, with homers in all four of those. He always heats up in July and this year is no exception.

[SubGod22]

I missed the game last night. This team really is closer than it would appear. A new starting pitcher or two next season could make a big difference. The offense should be just fine as Moose settles in and Giavotella comes up. Even Perez looks like he could potentially be an offensive upgrade, but we know he'll be one behind the plate.