KC Royals - July

[RoyalShock]

GRIT is way over-analyzed. And I disagree with his formula. GRIT is a boolean value. It can only be true or false.

If a player has enough at-bats to qualify as a league leader, but is in the bottom two of more than half of the significant statistical measures at his position, his GRIT = true.

:)

But seriously, that's a good piece.

[RoyalShock]

According to ESPN's Jim Bowden in a tweet yesterday:

Dayton Moore said that Aaron Crow will be moved to the starting rotation in 2012: meaning Soria might not get moved because they'll need him

http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/93405264031649792

[SubGod22]

Interesting. I still wonder what Soria would look like as a starter. Crow HAS to develop another average to above average pitch to go with the fastball/slider he works with now.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

True GRIT

There has been a proliferation of statistics and new metrics over the last several years. FIP, WAR, wOBA, SIERA… These measurements serve to flummox the old school and sate the new school. Like many who strive to survive on a steady diet of Hot Pockets and PepsiMAX (endorsed by Frank White!) I have long had the desire to develop a stat that is both easy to understand and revolutionary. Something to unify the communities. Besides, when you blog, you’re nothing unless you create a statistic. It’s “publish or perish” for the basement subset.

I’ve finally done it. Months of research. Miles of spreadsheets. It’s time to unveil my statistical baby…

Introducing GRIT.

What is GRIT? Well, it’s a kick ass acronym:
Gutty
Resilient
Intense
and
Tenacious

Oh… You want to know what it measures? Ultimately, GRIT is the measurement of a player’s determination and steely resolve. Ever wonder how much a player wants to win? Or how dirty he keeps his uniform? Or just how much he busts his ass whether its in batting practice, during a game or while eating a burrito from Chipotle?

Wonder no more.

GRIT is the most accurate snapshot of the player who wills his team to victory… Drives it to win through sheer determination. It is about the little things that don’t show up in the box score. It’s about the beauty of a well placed grounder to the right side that moves the runner to third. It’s about a bunt that forces the first baseman to charge and make a throw. It’s about hustle, busting your ass and being a great teammate. It’s about getting things done.

The formula behind GRIT is straight forward:


(BB%+SO%) * (SB + 1)
_____________________
(ISO*wOBA)

I will break down the formula, so it’s easy to understand and follow.

This may be the greatest piece I've ever read!

Dougie is facepalming

[SubGod22]

Trade one is in the books! Royals acquire pair of prospects for Betemit

KANSAS CITY -- Wilson Betemit is gone, and Mike Aviles is back.

That was the most immediate impact on the Royals' roster on Wednesday after Betemit was traded to the Detroit Tigers. Aviles was recalled from Triple-A Omaha to fill Betemit's spot as the backup infielder.

The Royals' future, though, could include the two players they obtained from the Tigers in exchange for Betemit -- left-handed pitcher Antonio Cruz and catcher Julio Rodriguez.

The two prospects acquired by the Royals will report to Class A clubs.

Rodriguez, 21, was a catcher on the Florida State League All-Star team and was batting .283 for Lakeland. A right-handed batter, he had one homer, 27 RBIs and 11 doubles in 66 games. He moves to the Royals' High-A club at Wilmington, Del.

Cruz, 19, had a 2-6 record with a 3.11 ERA in 22 games (10 starts) for West Michigan in the Midwest League. Because his club was playing the Royals' affiliate at Kane County, Ill., Cruz merely had to change clubhouses to join the Cougars.

Both players are from the Dominican Republic.

"We like them both, but the catcher is in a premier position, a 21-year-old kid with a big strong body and he's made All-Star teams," Moore said

Gordon's mad dash on wild pitch lifts KC

KANSAS CITY -- Wild finish on a wild pitch.

Alex Gordon dashed home on an errant pitch by White Sox closer Sergio Santos to give the Royals an 11-inning, 2-1 victory to give 13,831 fans some extra sizzle on a hot Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium.

White Sox lefty Chris Sale got two outs in the 11th but walked Gordon on a 3-2 pitch. Mitch Maier, in the game for an ailing Melky Cabrera (upset stomach), lined a single to center and Gordon reached third base.

The right-handed Santos came in to face Billy Butler. At third base, Gordon watched Santos throw his warmup tosses to catcher A.J. Pierzynski and consulted with third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez.

"I told Eddie I knew they were going to pitch Billy tough with splitters and sliders. So I told him that if I get anything close to a wild pitch, I'm going," Gordon said. "So once I saw it get away from Pierzynski a little bit, I was off."

Santos' 2-1 pitch bounced away, Pierzysnki retrieved the ball and made a quick toss to Santos covering the plate, but Gordon dove in safely.

"I thought I did everything right, it just hit the heel of my glove and kicked to my right," Pierzynski said. "A half inch to the right or half inch to the left, it goes right in my glove."

His throw was too late and too high to get Gordon.

"It wasn't that far away, so it was almost like I was going, but I was kind of reading it at the same time," Gordon said. "I was just trying to be aggressive. It was 1-1 through 11 innings and nothing much was happening, so I was trying to make something happen."

[ShockTalk]

With Aviles back, hopefully the Royals will take some pressure off Moustakas by letting him take a breather against lefties (OBP around .070 without the HBP). He needs a big game quick. A 2 for 47 has to wear on a newbie.

[SubGod22]

With Aviles back, hopefully the Royals will take some pressure off Moustakas by letting him take a breather against lefties (OBP around .070 without the HBP). He needs a big game quick. A 2 for 47 has to wear on a newbie.

Doubt they will. I'm not sure Aviles gives them something that Betemit didn't as far as it concerns Moose. Yost is a big believer in letting the kids play.

[ShockTalk]

With Aviles back, hopefully the Royals will take some pressure off Moustakas by letting him take a breather against lefties (OBP around .070 without the HBP). He needs a big game quick. A 2 for 47 has to wear on a newbie.

Doubt they will. I'm not sure Aviles gives them something that Betemit didn't as far as it concerns Moose. Yost is a big believer in letting the kids play.

Understand and don't totally disagree with "letting the kids play". Nevertheless, I'd think he would be making poor baseball judgement, for the team and individual, to let MM struggle against lefties right now .

Betemit was not that good from the right side when he switched around, therefore, he didn't play much in place of MM. Aviles, on the other hand, even having a bad offensive year, against lefties is batting .286 with a .327 OBP. This vs MM's .071 average and .103 OBP.

[SubGod22]

The Pot Boils Over

We all knew it was coming and yesterday afternoon it finally happened: the end of the Wilson Betemit era.

On Monday, I discussed the historical return netted by teams trading Betemit-like players and proposed a couple of options based around the supposed interest of the Milwaukee Brewers. If you think my analysis of that was in the ballpark as far as realism, then you likely are happy with what Dayton Moore extracted from Detroit.

Sure, neither Julio Rodriguez nor Antonio Cruz are considered ‘prospects’, but they are both very young with some upside. They are lottery tickets, but they are young lottery tickets.

Rodriguez, who according to Baseball Reference will turn 22 on August 3rd but is reported as being just 20 in the Kansas City Star, is an excellent defensive catcher with suspect hitting. Most of the concerns seem to be with his approach at the plate, so the possibility exists that he could rectify those issues over time. Julio’s career line is just .255/.302/.334, but he was hitting .283/.325/.354 in High A this season. With his defensive skills, it is not a huge stretch to imagine Rodriguez as a back-up major league catcher a couple of years down the road.

All sources agree that left-hander Antonio Cruz is 19 years old (turning 20 in October). He pitched part of last season, his first professional tour in America, in the Midwest League, so Cruz was thrown right into the fire by the Tigers. Used as a reliever in 2010, Cruz has started 10 games this season and pitched pretty well: 75 innings, 68 hits, 28 walks and 58 strikeouts.

The guys over at Pine Tar Press have a more detailed write-up of both of these prospects. They speculate that Cruz had potential to be a future lefty specialist.

You can condemn the Royals for how they handled the Betemit/Moustakas situation leading up to this trade and I might not disagree with you, but given where they actually were, I think this is a decent return.

Speaking of return, the Twitter world got hopped up last night as Melky Cabrera was pulled mid-game. As it turned out, Melky had a bit of a stomach ailment and was not traded. No word, by the way, on where or what Cabrera had for lunch.

Rumors, however, did have the Royals and Phillies discussing a deal, with Dayton Moore’s asking price being two ‘good’ starting pitching prospects in return for Cabrera. That is a big price tag and one that is unlikely to be accomodated by anyone, but it is a starting point.

Jon Morosi of Fox stated this morning on WHB that Melky was seen as the back-up plan for teams that are interested in but cannot acquire Carlos Beltran. All things considered, I am not sure Cabrera is not a better option for a lot of teams than Beltran, particularly when you consider that any team will get another year of Melky and not just a half-season rental.

[SubGod22]

With Aviles back, hopefully the Royals will take some pressure off Moustakas by letting him take a breather against lefties (OBP around .070 without the HBP). He needs a big game quick. A 2 for 47 has to wear on a newbie.

Doubt they will. I'm not sure Aviles gives them something that Betemit didn't as far as it concerns Moose. Yost is a big believer in letting the kids play.

Understand and don't totally disagree with "letting the kids play". Nevertheless, I'd think he would be making poor baseball judgement, for the team and individual, to let MM struggle against lefties right now .

Betemit was not that good from the right side when he switched around, therefore, he didn't play much in place of MM. Aviles, on the other hand, even having a bad offensive year, against lefties is batting .286 with a .327 OBP. This vs MM's .071 average and .103 OBP.

I'm all for letting the kids play through stuff, but agree that he takes it too far sometimes. A few days off here and there would be good for Moose. Step back and evaluate things. I'm hoping Aviles gets dealt with someone else to get a good prospect and Giovatella gets called up.

[ShockTalk]

With Aviles back, hopefully the Royals will take some pressure off Moustakas by letting him take a breather against lefties (OBP around .070 without the HBP). He needs a big game quick. A 2 for 47 has to wear on a newbie.

Doubt they will. I'm not sure Aviles gives them something that Betemit didn't as far as it concerns Moose. Yost is a big believer in letting the kids play.

Understand and don't totally disagree with "letting the kids play". Nevertheless, I'd think he would be making poor baseball judgement, for the team and individual, to let MM struggle against lefties right now .

Betemit was not that good from the right side when he switched around, therefore, he didn't play much in place of MM. Aviles, on the other hand, even having a bad offensive year, against lefties is batting .286 with a .327 OBP. This vs MM's .071 average and .103 OBP.

I'm all for letting the kids play through stuff, but agree that he takes it too far sometimes. A few days off here and there would be good for Moose. Step back and evaluate things. I'm hoping Aviles gets dealt with someone else to get a good prospect and Giovatella gets called up.

:yes:

[SubGod22]

Water cooler talk- the Value of Melky Cabrera (and Phillies edition)

I will put this on record….I would keep Melky Cabrera unless you get a ML ready SP for him….I would keep Melky Cabrera because I see a invigorated talent that has been consistent this season and is entering his prime years as a player. I would keep Melky Cabrera because I have always said that the Royals should uncover every stone and hope they find a gem. If the Royals keep Melky Cabrera you would have to feel pretty good about a 2012 OF of Gordon, Cabrera, Francouer, and Cain.



I think every quality team needs depth….4 OF are a commodity for any one team. I know that Ned does not play his bench much but what if one of your OF gets hurt? Even if there is no injury there is still plenty of value in a deep bench.

I am not completely sold on Cain….and before you bring up his AAA stats (or his 125 big league at bats) just look around the PCL at all of the 4A players that have mashed in that same league. (Bryan LaHair, Vinny Rottino) Cain deserves a big league job as he can go out and get it in CF with the best. But, he has a long swing and he will strike out a lot (which, at the major league level could be a recipe for bad things man!). If you think he is a leadoff hitter, think again…He has batted in the middle of the line up most the season at Omaha for a reason. I want him in KC and look forward to seeing him get that opportunity but I think it should not be at the expense of Cabrera. If Cain is your 4th OF next season and Cabrera slips then you get your wish and Cain gets the job. But, who gets the job if Cabrera is gone and Cain is not very good.

The negative for Cabrera is I could not find evidence of any hitter that turned it on like he has after 2000 big league at bats. But, he is a year older than Cain and has done marginal work at the big league level and not at the minor league level. We need to remember he was a 21 year old starter on a playoff team so he has worked out all of his kinks on a much bigger stage as a major leaguer. Who knows what type of numbers he would have put up if he was buried on a minor league roster and has only been in the big leagues for 2 or 3 years. Can you imagine what his value would be if that was the case?

But, the idea here is to see how he matches up with other teams that have discussed Cab in trade rumors.

I think you should be able to get a close to ML ready starter for him plus a 2nd tier minor leaguer.

[SubGod22]

Royals' cornerstone duo learning on the job

KANSAS CITY -- Mike Moustakas had a big smile on his face. Never mind that he'd hadn't had a hit in 22 straight at-bats or that he'd just been unable to deliver in two late-inning clutch situations.

"When we win, I'm the happiest person out there," he said.

That's Moustakas, the third-base half of the Royals' two corner infield prodigies. He and first baseman Eric Hosmer were elevated from Triple-A Omaha this season as symbols, at least in the everyday lineup, of the new order in Kansas City.

It's the Moose and Hoz Show. So how are they doing?

Check with Moustakas after Wednesday night's 2-1 win over the White Sox and you'd never know he was in a 2-for-47 (.043) skid.

"Yeah, I'm hitting .190 right now, but we won the last two ballgames and that's what's important," Moustakas said. "I'm just going to go out there and keep playing good defense and the hitting's going to come around at some point."

Moustakas has hit one home run, for his hometown folks at Anaheim, and has only four RBIs in 31 games.

Things have been significantly better for Hosmer, batting .269 with nine home runs and 37 RBIs in his 65 games. But he's had his down periods, as well.

"It's a game of adjustments," Hosmer said. "Every pitcher has their certain game plan, and they really do stick to that during a game. It's a just of matter of who can adjust on the fly and just keep learning on the fly, too."

[SubGod22]

Trader Dayton

It feels like we’re on the edge of some excitement… The calm before the storm that is the trade deadline.

Although I’m not so certain there’s going to be much action where the Royals are involved.

It seems to me the team has four trade candidates.

Jeff Francoeur

The Frenchman is playing at his expected level of .264/310/.448, but with sterling defense in right field. Several teams are looking for a right-handed bat, so you would expect some level of interest.

However, we can’t discount GMDM’s past relationship here. And the fact there is a mutual option believed to be in the neighborhood of $4 million.

I think Frenchy not only hangs with the team for the full year, I think both parties are interested in being together in 2012. As fun as it is to watch Braves fans freak out about the possibility of a Francoeur return, they need to take a deep breath and relax. He’s going to be a Royal for the next 18 months.

[ShockTalk]

Trader Dayton

It feels like we’re on the edge of some excitement… The calm before the storm that is the trade deadline.

Although I’m not so certain there’s going to be much action where the Royals are involved.

It seems to me the team has four trade candidates.

Jeff Francoeur

The Frenchman is playing at his expected level of .264/310/.448, but with sterling defense in right field. Several teams are looking for a right-handed bat, so you would expect some level of interest.

However, we can’t discount GMDM’s past relationship here. And the fact there is a mutual option believed to be in the neighborhood of $4 million.

I think Frenchy not only hangs with the team for the full year, I think both parties are interested in being together in 2012. As fun as it is to watch Braves fans freak out about the possibility of a Francoeur return, they need to take a deep breath and relax. He’s going to be a Royal for the next 18 months.

Not one who follows the Royals that closely, I'll ask our experts here.

Why would they trade any of these 4 players? What they would get may be minimal, probably a few years away from helping the parent club, and none of these current players are drawing that sizable of contracts. In fact, the Royals may be getting a bargin with a few of them. Don't you want to have a good mix of young veterans with the new boys?

KC will dump Davies and Luke is still a mystery. Wouldn't Francis and Chen make a solid 4 and 5 at the least or even 3/4 if you bring up another rookie? The only way the Royals are going to have another solid 1 and 2 is from their farm system or go out and buy them. The four players mentioned will not bring in anyone would could fill that roll for 2/3 years minimum.

You want to improve the club, fill holes, and get some young talent who might help you very soon, trade Butler. Hosmer is solidly at first. As a DH, Butler is not that great, sorry. He's had one stellar year (2 years ago) and is solid, but 10-15 HR and 60-70 RBI from a full time DH is not that good for someone who'll get $8.5 mill next year. Bring up Cain and rotate some of the outfielders at DH as their day off.

This year, the Royals cut their payroll by half from the previous two years. I'm assuming Kendall and Davies will drop off and if Butler's traded, that will give another $15 mill to spend. Add to that another $15-20 mill to that payroll savings to get solid, quality players and your still $15-20 mill under last years total payroll. OK, have at me.