KC Royals - July

[SubGod22]

Focus now shifts to KC for 2012 All-Star Game

PHOENIX -- They might take a train (doubtful), they might take plane (likely), but if they have to walk (no way), they're going to be there all the same.

The All-Stars are going to Kansas City. Kansas City, here they come.

With the 82nd Midsummer Classic in the books, it's time to turn the All-Star attention from cacti to K.C. One year from now, the Royals will be the host team for the annual summer spectacle for the first time since 1973 -- 38 years and a $250 million Kauffman Stadium renovation ago. And after taking in the full spectrum of All-Star events the last few days in Phoenix, Kevin Uhlich, the Royals' vice president of business operations, is excited to receive the handoff from the D-backs.

"Now that this game is history," he said Tuesday, "the focus will kind of shift to Kansas City. And we know the clock is on."

Indeed, it is. And members of the Royals, who dispatched 27 staffers to Chase Field to tour the facility and get a feel for the festivities, are going to be working some long hours to ensure that everything goes off without a hitch in 2012.

"In our meeting [Tuesday] morning," said Mike Swanson, the Royals' vice president of communications and broadcasting, "Tim Brosnan [MLB's executive vice president of business] told us, 'As of tomorrow, consider that you have two 40-hour-a-week jobs.'"

The Royals are up to the challenge because of the rewards that are in store, both in terms of the memories that will be created for their fans and the revenues that will be reaped for their city. The previous three All-Star Games, prior to 2011, earned their host cities anywhere from $63 million to $68 million in revenue, according to data provided to Uhlich, so the All-Star experience has plentiful perks.

[SubGod22]

Report Cards: The Hitters

The All-Star Break means it’s time to hand out the annual Royals Authority first half report cards.

There are no exams or assignments… Grading is subjective and based on a soft curve. Players are listed in a positional order from Baseball Reference with their slash stats and Fangraphs WAR.

[ShockTalk]

Report Cards: The Hitters

The All-Star Break means it’s time to hand out the annual Royals Authority first half report cards.

There are no exams or assignments… Grading is subjective and based on a soft curve. Players are listed in a positional order from Baseball Reference with their slash stats and Fangraphs WAR.

Any opinions, Sub?

I'll throw one out. Is Mike Moustakas up too soon? The article makes a big deal of Kila's "bringing home 4 of 72 runners" and giving him an F and RIP. Well the Moose has brought home 3 of 72 and has no better stats than Kila, yet gets an incomplete.

I'm definitely not defending Kila, but are the Royals going to have another "Gordon" (if that) in Moustakas for 4 years before he produces? I hope Gordon has success and continues to produce for KC, but isn't he up for arbitration? We'll see what that one good year costs the Royals.

Back to Moose. Perhaps if they had brought him up during another player's injury or at the end of the season, less pressure would have been on him to produce. They might have also been in a position to get something better for Betemit than now that he's on the pine. As a side, the writer of the article makes light of Betemit's success as a switch hitter batting against lefties. Has he taken a look at Moose's success against lefties as a left handed batter only?

[SubGod22]

Moose has struggled to adjust each time he's been promoted. So if it were now or later, I'd expect him to start slower than Hosmer. I believe in the next few weeks we'll start to see him producing a little more. Kila was more seasoned and failed miserably. Moose is still quite young and has a history of slow starts. If he struggles a great deal all season I might be a little concerned. But as of right now, I'm not at all.

I believe he got an incomplete because he's had relatively little experience up there and less time than Hosmer. Hosmer has even struggled a bit adjusting to the bigs and he's been considered a better hitter from day one. Them playing now is best for the future.

That's also why I'm begging for Giavotella to get the call and for Getz to be traded. Somebody will take a decent 2B who plays hard and is a good guy. We're not going to get much for him but Johnny should be up soon. He doesn't have much left to prove in Omaha. Same with Cain. One of Frenchy/Melky will need to be traded in the next few weeks.

[SubGod22]

Royals ready for record to match talent

KANSAS CITY -- There is an overriding opinion, at least within the Royals' clubhouse, that this is a team that has played much better than its record shows.

That could be dismissed as so much balderdash -- propaganda dispensed by the men in charge of assembling the aggregation, or just wishful thinking in an organization simply tired of holding up the rest of the American League.

Except that, at long last, this seems to actually be the case. All the hype surrounding the ballyhooed anointing of the Kansas City Minor League system as the best in baseball, and the continuing refrain that the Royals should be a contender within a year or two actually seems to have basis in fact.

There are certainly indications of that as the Royals gird themselves for the post-All-Star portion of the season. They've played a large number of close games, their ability to score runs with a livelier batting attack has emerged -- if at times fitfully -- and their ability to prevent runs with a much tighter defense has skyrocketed.

Nowhere has their rosy pitching future been magnified more than in their rookie-dominated bullpen, where All-Star Aaron Crow holds forth. The two prize hitting prospects -- first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas -- have arrived on the big stage with solid and satisfying results.

"The pluses will add up for us," Royals manger Ned Yost said. "Last year our minuses were way ahead of our pluses. And now our pluses are almost ahead of our minuses."

There are minuses, of course. There is no bona fide No. 1 -- or even No. 2 -- pitcher that has emerged to lead the charge of the starting rotation. There is a need for some potent bats, particularly from the right-handed side, to punch up the attack.

Left-hander Danny Duffy was the first starter to emerge from the deep Minor League stockpile this season. Crow could be a starter of the future as well. Hitting prospects such as outfielder Wil Myers might not be quite so close to the Majors, however.

[SubGod22]

The Second Half By The Numbers

Thursday evening the Royals open up the second half of the season at Minnesota. Let’s take a somewhat light-hearted look at some numbers for the remainder of the season.

The Royals play 36 games against teams with winning records and 35 against those with losing records. Forty-one games are on the road and just 30 are at home. Only 18 of those road games, however, are against teams with winning records.

In a nutshell, the Royals play a lot of games on the road, but it is not a particularly daunting road schedule. Is it conceivable that this team, which will probably only be marginally effected by the trading deadline, could play close to .500 ball in the second half? Something on the order of 34-37, maybe?

With the current rotation, it seems unlikely, but should Eric Hosmer continue to improve and with Mike Moustakas seemingly having nowhere to go but up, the Royals could continue to improve on what is already an improved offensive team. Not a lot of championship teams are built by playing 7-6 games every night, but high scoring games often leave the decision making up to the bullpens and there, the Royals generally can stand toe to toe with anyone.

Perhaps the better question is: if the Royals win 34 games or more the rest of the way, would that get you excited about the team’s chances in 2012?

Maybe. Possible. Yes. Nine. Three. Four (I can hope). No. Yes. Five. None. Less. Will not. Over. 15. I have faith in Alex. Different uniform. No. Probably, but I'm ok if we don't. Sure does.

I think I answered every question...

[SubGod22]

Trade Time.

First off, thanks to everyone who came out to the Baseball Prospectus event at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday. It was great to meet all of you. Thanks to Kevin Goldstein and Craig Brown and Jeff Euston for being there, thanks to Joe Hamrahi for setting the event up, and thanks to the Royals’ Jin Wong and John Williams for speaking to the group and answering a raft of questions. Their answers were carefully constructed to not be particularly revealing – and I would expect nothing less from them – but the mere fact that someone like Williams (a Yale grad who got his master’s in atmospheric science from MIT) works for the Royals is revealing enough.


As hard as this may be to believe, the Royals may actually be ahead of the curve on statistical analysis now – at least with the new frontier of Pitch f/x data. (One piece of info Jin Wong revealed that surprised me – the Royals have paid to have Pitch f/x equipment installed at Northwest Arkansas, and will likely be doing the same in Omaha at some point soon.) The Royals are also having Field f/x equipment installed at Kauffman Stadium soon – which will give data on the movements of every player on the field on every pitch, allowing teams to determine how quick a first step a fielder gets, how quickly he gets from Point A to Point B, etc.


None of this data is going to be public, unfortunately. But the Royals have the data, and between Williams and Mike Groopman (a former Baseball Prospectus intern) on staff, I have no doubt that they’ll be mining the depths of it. Whether the baseball decision-makers will listen to their analysts is the big question, and one I can’t answer. But it’s reassuring to know that the Royals not only have the data, they have the data guys.


And I can’t say enough about the fanbase. On Friday night, the Royals drew 34,563 paying fans to the ballpark. Yes, there were fireworks, and it was Buck Night, but…still. The Cleveland Indians, who were in first place, drew 25,835 to their stadium the same night. The Royals drew nearly 35,000 fans to watch a team on pace to finish last for the sixth time in eight years. If this team ever turns around, Kauffman Stadium is going to be rocking every single night. The Royals’ incompetence masks the fact that Kansas City is a great baseball town.


The Indians are an instructive example. From 1969 to 1993, Cleveland went 25 straight years without ever finishing higher than fourth place in the standings. In 1994 they opened a new ballpark and started to win. On June 12, 1995, the Indians sold out the ballpark; they would sell out every game they played from that day through Opening Day, 2001, a then-record 455 sellouts in a row. I don’t think that Kauffman Stadium will be a sellout for five-plus years – for one thing, I don’t think they’ll win five straight division titles, and a renovated Kauffman is not quite the same as a brand-new Jacobs Field. But I could see 30,000 at the ballpark every night.


In the meantime, the trade deadline is barely two weeks away, and as usual the Royals are sellers. A month ago, there was so much parity in the sport that it looked like this might be a seller’s market, as very few teams were definitively out of contention and the supply of impact players at the deadline looked small. But there has been a lot of separation in the last few weeks; 13 of 30 teams are now at least 8.5 games out of a playoff spot. So the Royals will have to compete with a raft of other teams in marketing their wares.


Nevertheless, the Royals have a number of veterans who could help a contender, certainly more (and better) veterans than they had last year. Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth, and Jose Guillen collectively brought back Tim Collins and a bunch of organizational filler. This year, the Royals have the talent to do far better – the question is whether they have the market. Here, in no particular order, are the guys that should be on the auction block this month.

So, nothing I quoted has anything to do with trades, but I found much of it to be interesting. Trust me, he does finally talk about trades in his typically long style.

[SubGod22]

Report Cards: The Pitchers.

On to the pitchers…

We know the starters have, taken as a whole, been horrible. And we know the bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team. I don’t know how the rotation can improved in the second half. Aside from Danny Duffy, these guys pretty much are who we thought they were. Which is not good.

The bullpen, on the other hand, has overachieved. Many of the relievers have outperformed their xFIP and have incredible batting averages on balls in play and even more incredible strand rates. That points to the volatility of the bullpen. It’s still a strength of this team, but I’m not certain it will be as strong in the second half.

One area where you notice the chasm is in strikeouts. The Royals starters couldn’t pitch their way out of a paper bag. (When I talk about the “starters,” know that I’m excluding Duffy. He’s the Chosen One adrift in a sea of batting practice pitchers.) Meanwhile, the bullpen is full of flame throwers who have made missing bats a habit. There may be some regression to the bullpen mean in the second half, but the strikeouts will cushion the blow.

[ShockTalk]

Report Cards: The Pitchers.

On to the pitchers…

We know the starters have, taken as a whole, been horrible. And we know the bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team. I don’t know how the rotation can improved in the second half. Aside from Danny Duffy, these guys pretty much are who we thought they were. Which is not good.

The bullpen, on the other hand, has overachieved. Many of the relievers have outperformed their xFIP and have incredible batting averages on balls in play and even more incredible strand rates. That points to the volatility of the bullpen. It’s still a strength of this team, but I’m not certain it will be as strong in the second half.

One area where you notice the chasm is in strikeouts. The Royals starters couldn’t pitch their way out of a paper bag. (When I talk about the “starters,” know that I’m excluding Duffy. He’s the Chosen One adrift in a sea of batting practice pitchers.) Meanwhile, the bullpen is full of flame throwers who have made missing bats a habit. There may be some regression to the bullpen mean in the second half, but the strikeouts will cushion the blow.

As hard as the writer came down on a (sizable) number of the staff, he was probably to easy on several others. Sorry, Luke gets an F. He's no better now than he was several seasons ago in 2008. He wasn't good then, but at least had an excuse of being a newbie.

I don't know what was expected of Francis, but I don't believe he's any better than an average pitcher at best (C). Soria has had a great stretch since the beginning of June and that leads to hope for the 2nd half. However, no way does that month and a few days make up for his first two months. Besides, there was certain justified expectations (D+).

On the other side, I'd bump Teaford up. Chen IS the starting staff and should be worth at least a + behind the B. And, until the walks do come back to haunt Collins, I might have upped him just a tad.

The good news comes in the form of rooks! 6 of them!!! All relief pitchers!!!!!!! Can't any of these guys start?!?!?!? :cry:

[SubGod22]

I know Crow and Teaford have both been starters in the minors. Not sure about Holland. I know Collins wasn't and I don't think Coleman was.

[SubGod22]

Hosmer's blast earns victory for Royals

MINNEAPOLIS -- Eric Hosmer saved the best for last -- the last inning.

Hosmer's two-run homer to dead center field in the ninth inning stunned the Minnesota Twins, 2-1, and silenced a sellout crowd of 39,177 on a delightful 73-degree Friday night at Target Field.

The Royals were behind, 1-0, when Melky Cabrera opened the ninth against closer Matt Capps with a walk, then stole second base as Alex Gordon swung and missed on a hit-and-run attempt.

Gordon grounded out and Billy Butler blasted a drive into the right-field corner, but it was caught.

Hosmer swung hard and missed Capps' first pitch, almost jumping out of his shoes.

"Any time you're facing a good closer like Capps, especially with a good fastball like his, you've got to try to jump on it early," Hosmer said. "The first one didn't work out as planned, so I told myself, 'Just step out and relax.'"

Hosmer, a rookie who was 0-for-3 in the game, took a deep breath. Capps threw another high fastball.

"Just ran back over the plate, and he was able to get it," Capps said. "I don't know. Maybe he was looking up there after swinging through it, too, but whatever happened it wasn't good for us. For me, us."

Hosmer sent the ball hurtling toward center fielder Ben Revere.

"We're playing in a big park with Revere out there who covers a lot of ground and I was just hoping it got over his head," Hosmer said.

Oh my, it went way over his head and against the black hitter's eye that rises behind the blue wall, an estimated 421 feet from the launch site.

Hosmer's ninth homer ended the Royals' five-game losing streak against the Twins.

"It was big for us to get those two runs and knowing you've got Jack warming up to come in and shut the door," Hosmer said.

Royals' record not due to offense

MINNEAPOLIS -- Royals manager Ned Yost was looking downright professorial as he sat behind his desk, occasionally passing his hand through his hair as he peered through spectacles at sheets of statistical data.

Outside late Friday afternoon at Target Field, it was pouring rain, but in his office he was poring over RISP figures -- hitting with runners in scoring position.

"Where do you think we rank?" he asked, then answered his own question. "We rank fourth in all of baseball."

Frenchy at home in KC, doesn't want to leave

MINNEAPOLIS -- Naturally, the rumor mill will touch on Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur as the Trade Deadline approaches, but Frenchy would like to stay in Kansas City.

He's expressed that to Royals general manager Dayton Moore.

"I told him I'd like to be here because I like the guys, I like the coaches, I like where the organization is going," Francoeur said. "But Dayton was great, he said, 'Jeff, I'll be honest with you. When people call, I'll let you know. If you want to know where you stand, I'll tell you.'"

[SubGod22]

So, You Want to Trade Wilson Betemit?

We are now entering the heart of trading season in major league baseball and virtually everyone who follows the Royals is certain that Wilson Betemit will be traded. Count me among that group.

Since Mike Moustakas was called up, Betemit has appeared in just nine games – three of those being against NL teams where he was used as a pinch hitter. We joke about Mitch Maier never playing, but even he has seen more action since June 10th than Wilson.

The lack of playing time has eliminated any hope that Betemit will qualify for any free agent compensation at year’s end. While that same lack of action has certainly reduced, maybe even decimated, Wilson’s trade value, the Royals would still be wise to move Betemit for a lottery ticket simply because he will be a free agent at the end of 2011.

Being a switch-hitter with some power, the ability to play both corners of the infield and at least passing familiarity with shortstop and second base, Betemit versatile enough and has a decent enough track record to warrant something from somebody. It is one thing to want it to be worth your while when trading one of your regulars (Cabrera/Francouer), but it is another thing to hold onto an asset you don’t need, plan on wanting or use at all.

Moving Betemit, whatever the bounty or lack thereof, is the correct thing to do, but what can the Royals expect in return? Well, when reviewing players somewhat similar to Betemit who have been traded in recent history, it appears the return is exactly what the Royals do not need: middle relievers.

[SubGod22]

Moore not expecting much Deadline action

KANSAS CITY -- On the Trade Deadline front, Royals general manager Dayton Moore is doing a lot of talking but sensing little action.

"There's a lot of talk," Moore said, but he added: "I don't think we'll do much."

Lefty Teaford optioned to Triple-A Omaha

In two stays with the Royals this year, Teaford has no record with a 2.25 ERA. He got his first Major League save on July 9 by pitching three shutout innings against the Tigers.

[SubGod22]

Duffy, Royals respond to pep talk

KANSAS CITY -- A little side trip to Omaha seemed to agree with Royals left-hander Danny Duffy. Upon his return, a rousing clubhouse speech by manager Ned Yost fired up the young pitcher.

End result: Splendid pitching by Duffy and a satisfying 4-2 victory for the Royals over the White Sox for the benefit of 20,126 fans on Tuesday night at steamy Kauffman Stadium.

Duffy, faced with a long layoff because of the All-Star break, was sent on a one-start detour to the Triple-A club. He got back in time to hear Yost address a team meeting designed to inspire what is considered to be a much better team to demonstrate that on the field with some victories.

"Ned really pumped us up today and I was really affected by what he said," Duffy said. "I'm playing for more than just this team, we're playing for the fans. They deserve us winning."

Duffy pitched seven innings for his second Major League victory, and the Royals snapped a three-game skid.

"He pitched a fantastic game, right from the get-go. He was after it all night long," Yost said.

The Omaha tuneup last Thursday was followed by some sputtering and stalling in the first inning of his return. Duffy got an 0-2 count on leadoff man Juan Pierre and drilled him in the hip. Then he walked Alexei Ramirez on four pitches. Both of them scored when Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios delivered RBI singles.

That was it. Duffy followed that with six scoreless innings.

"He had command of his pitches after that first inning and settled in there," Pierre said. "He's going to be a pretty good pitcher."

[SubGod22]

True GRIT

There has been a proliferation of statistics and new metrics over the last several years. FIP, WAR, wOBA, SIERA… These measurements serve to flummox the old school and sate the new school. Like many who strive to survive on a steady diet of Hot Pockets and PepsiMAX (endorsed by Frank White!) I have long had the desire to develop a stat that is both easy to understand and revolutionary. Something to unify the communities. Besides, when you blog, you’re nothing unless you create a statistic. It’s “publish or perish” for the basement subset.

I’ve finally done it. Months of research. Miles of spreadsheets. It’s time to unveil my statistical baby…

Introducing GRIT.

What is GRIT? Well, it’s a kick ass acronym:
Gutty
Resilient
Intense
and
Tenacious

Oh… You want to know what it measures? Ultimately, GRIT is the measurement of a player’s determination and steely resolve. Ever wonder how much a player wants to win? Or how dirty he keeps his uniform? Or just how much he busts his ass whether its in batting practice, during a game or while eating a burrito from Chipotle?

Wonder no more.

GRIT is the most accurate snapshot of the player who wills his team to victory… Drives it to win through sheer determination. It is about the little things that don’t show up in the box score. It’s about the beauty of a well placed grounder to the right side that moves the runner to third. It’s about a bunt that forces the first baseman to charge and make a throw. It’s about hustle, busting your ass and being a great teammate. It’s about getting things done.

The formula behind GRIT is straight forward:


(BB%+SO%) * (SB + 1)
_____________________
(ISO*wOBA)

I will break down the formula, so it’s easy to understand and follow.

This may be the greatest piece I've ever read!