What if

[shoxsoftball]

Is Indiana St. losing and our winning the only way into the tourney? What if Bradley loses? They have SIU and UNI left dont they?

[flyingMoose]

I looked at this a little last week but did not try to figure it out. I guess I will now.

Bradley has eight games remaining, weekends against Southern Illinois and Missouri State and a midweek DH against Indiana State. Their current conference record is 7-9 and ours is 7-12. So we have to win one game more in six games than Bradley wins in eight games to catch them.

As a reminder, Indiana State has eight games remaining, weekends against Evansville and Southern Illinois and a midweek DH against Bradley. They need to win one game more in eight games than we do in six games to catch us since they own the tiebreaker.

Our six remaining games are weekends against Drake and Creighton.

Bottom line is that we need to win some games, my guess is a minimum of three.

[shoxsoftball]

So what your saying is that things look grim? Thanks for your research

[1972Shocker]

The Sycamores win over the Redbirds was a big win for them and it puts that much more pressure on the Shocks.

Right now I have to say the Shocks best shot at making the Tournament may be mother nature. A lot of rain in the forecast over the next week.
If enough rain outs go the Shocks way, maybe they can sneak into the tournament on a better winning percentage. That would definitely be a freaky thing if that happened. I'm not placing any bets on that happening.

[flyingMoose]

Saturday 25 April results:

Indiana State beat Evansville twice, and they are now 8-11.

Bradley lost twice to Southern Illinois, and they are now 7-11.

Wichita State split with Drake, and we are now 8-13.

Our best chance to make the Valley tournament seems to be to catch Bradley.

[Shoxtastic]

The unfortunate thing about that, is that there has to be another team involved in order to make it work. Bradley, as the host of the tournament, is guaranteed a spot. So chasing down the Braves is meaningless unless we were to end up 7th.

If the Shocks were to somehow pass Bradley, and still fall behind the Sycamores, WSU will be on the outside looking in.

[WuDrWu]

Unfortunately, the 4 melt down losses to ISU blue and Bradley will seal our fate. We are better than that, but just haven't been able to put it together when needed.

[flyingMoose]

Bradley, as the host of the tournament, is guaranteed a spot. So chasing down the Braves is meaningless unless we were to end up 7th.

If the Shocks were to somehow pass Bradley, and still fall behind the Sycamores, WSU will be on the outside looking in.

Excellent point. Though I had noticed that Bradley is hosting, I had totally forgotten to factor that into the scenarios.

So it appears we are toast as far as making the tournament.

[flyingMoose]

We win today, but so does Indiana State.

Us: 9-13

Them: 9-11

Indiana State plays a mid-week DH at Bradley and hosts Southern Illinois next weekend to close their regular season.

We close at Creighton next weekend.

There is faint hope, but they hold the tiebreaker.

And Bradley lost and is now 7-12. :(

[shoxsoftball]

I think if we can some how manage to take 2 games against Creighton we will be in. If we play like we did the last 2 games against Drake it is very possible. Just a thought.

[flyingMoose]

I think if we can some how manage to take 2 games against Creighton we will be in.

Indiana State's midweek DH against Bradley will be key. The big issue with this weekend against Creighton is that I assume we will see Tara Oltman, the best pitcher in the conference, twice.

[flyingMoose]

Bradley wins the first game of the DH with Indiana State, 2-0. Ashley Birdsong pitches a two-hitter with twelve Ks for Bradley.

[flyingMoose]

And Bradley wins the second game, also 2-0. Birdsong pitches a one-hitter, giving up a seventh inning single, this time with seven strikeouts.

That leaves the Shocks and Indiana State tied at 9-13. We have to win one more game against Creighton than they do against Southern Illinois this weekend in order to make the Valley tournament.

[1972Shocker]

And Bradley wins the second game, also 2-0. Birdsong pitches a one-hitter, giving up a seventh inning single, this time with seven strikeouts.

That leaves the Shocks and Indiana State tied at 9-13. We have to win one more game against Creighton than they do against Southern Illinois this weekend in order to make the Valley tournament.

Or the win the same number of games, but the Shocks play one fewer due to weather. Shocks would go on the basis of better winning percentage I believe. (Of course, that can work in reverse also). Hopefully, both teams get all their remaining games in so it can be determined on the field.

BTW, way to go Bradley (or should I say Ashley Birdsong). Ashley definitely lived up to her pre-season All-Conference selection today.