predictions on this years' womens hoops...

[trufan]

1972--- As usual, I find your posts insightful. I thought I might just add one more thought as to why my outlook is a bit more optimistic than yours. You use a valid approach in evaluating the team by looking for a trend: upwards, flat, or downwards. By including all 3 of the last 3 years, you obviously come up with flat at best, and downwards at worst. This year's outlook seems bleak when based on that valid approach.
Another valid approach, when looking at trends of anything--stocks, teams, etc., is to look for trendlines that might be otherwise overlooked by tossing out "outliers". In the case of Shocker wbb, I would see last year as an "outlier" due to the tragic impact of injuries, etc. When evaluating the trendline without last year, you have: 9th place finish, 5th place finish, and then this year would be projected at an upper division finish.
I sure do hope I'm right on this one! (My STOCKS are doing pretty well----now lets see our SHOCKS do well!!)

[1972Shocker]

trufan, I try not only to look at what is going on with the Shocks but what appears to be going on with the rest of the MVC teams, which no doubt requires a lot of guessing and assumptions.

[passionrunsdeep]

three pointer

So who will be our big three point shooter? Who on the team is the most consistant that can light it up ever night ?

[The Mad Hatter]

Re: three pointer

So who will be our big three point shooter? Who on the team is the most consistant that can light it up ever night ?

Taylor, who will move over to shooting guard this year, shot 42.8% from 3 last year (33-79), so she is clearly our best outside option.

Frannie is our best 3-point shooter by percentage at 45.7% (16-35), but she needs to improve her defense to be on the floor enough to get many shot attempts.

Kyrie is also very respectable at 34.4% (18-23), but it is not a huge part of her game, since she prefers to drive to the basket or shoot the mid-range jumper.

[1972Shocker]

Re: three pointer

So who will be our big three point shooter? Who on the team is the most consistant that can light it up ever night ?

Taylor, who will move over to shooting guard this year, shot 42.8% from 3 last year (48-61), so she is clearly our best outside option.

Frannie is our best 3-point shooter by percentage at 45.7% (16-35), but she needs to improve her defense to be on the floor enough to get many shot attempts.

Kyrie is also very respectable at 34.4% (18-23), but it is not a huge part of her game, since she prefers to drive to the basket or shoot the mid-range jumper.

Freshman Shantel Pointer shot the three ball OK in Canada although did not take a whole lot of shots.

I think Frannie has the best stroke from three but her release is a little slow and she has trouble getting her shot off.

Taylor has a nice looking shot. Not sure she has a shooter/scorer type mentality though. Also at I think if she get's hot, opponents will be able to close her down.

Whitney will hit a 26 foot bomb every know and them, but has not yet developed good consistency and I think her shot selection can improve.

Been a while since the Shockers have been a good 3-point shooting team.

[TweetieShock]

Wichita State's team three-point shooting mark last season, .345, ranked 46th nationally at the Division I level. This clip ranks virtually the same as NCAA Tournament teams Iowa State and Duke, and very near a pair of Big 12 neighbors, Baylor (.355) and Texas A&M (.354).

If my memory serves me correctly (which it seldom does), I think the Shocks' percentage last year ranked among the top 5 best in school history (not as if that stat was THAT impressive).

While individually WSU may have looked bad from the arc, statistically speaking, last year was as good as any Shocker team has been in a while, and not too bad on the national scale.

If a couple of our girls could develop consistency from long range, this could be a really good shooting team from outside, though it could be masked by the fact that we could finish among the top 40 nationally and still be seventh among our peers in the Valley.

[1972Shocker]

Good post, TweetieShock. That's better than I thought we were.

That is better than I would have guessed.

I think this was masked by the fact that we did not take or make a lot of 3-Pointers. We ranked 139th nationally (8th in the MVC) in 3-Pointers made per game. Perhaps our percentage was higher because we were more selective, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

I think it may also have been masked by the fact that our go-to 3-Point shooter last year, Lexee McDonnell who shot by far the most 3-Point attempts only shot 30.9%. That was the 5th best 3-Point % on the team.

It may have also been masked that in MVC games only we were last in the league in 3-Point % defense at 37.8% while we shot 32.8%. We were 9th in overall FG % defense.

Statistically, our glaring weaknesses last year were:

Scoring Defense: 296th Nationally at 71.3 PPG - Last in the MVC

Turnovers: 263rd Nationally at 19.7 PG - Last in the MVC (Also last in the MVC in Turnover Maring at minus 4.4 PG.

Personal Fouls: 213th Nationally at 18.3 PG - 8th in the MVC

Perhaps Scoring Margin is more important than Scoring Defense. So what if you give up a lot of points if you score more than your opponents.
There the Shocks were a little better at 210th nationally at a minus 3.3 PPG. However, in MVC games the Shocks has a scoring margin of a minus 7.9 PPG (including the MVC Tournament) which was 9th in the league.

On the positive side, in MVC games only, we were we were 4th in Rebounding Margin and 2nd in Blocked Shots. Unfortunately our leader in both of those categories, Antionette Wells, has graduated.

Of course, in the end the number one and most important stat by which you are measured in sports is win and losses. With an overall mark of 9 wins and 20 losses the Shocks ranked 262nd in the nation in Winning %.
This stat pretty much rolls all your strengths and weaknesses into a bottom line. The Shocks RPI was 254.

That was all last year of course. Can the Shockers improve significantly on their weak areas, especially turnovers and defense, and can they overcome the loss of Antionette Wells in the middle. If they don't then this will be another long year.

[TweetieShock]

Thats a lot of stats 1972Shocker. I agree that improvement must come on the defense, but I don't think we are as far off as most people think.

It will be interesting to watch this new defensive system evolve. More interesting to watch them scrimmage at Shocker Madness to see how they handle it with each other, it appeared there would be growing pains after the trip to Canada.

A marginal improvement in defense could be the answer to this season. Before the team's three game collapse at the end of the year (-9 at Evansville, -33 at SIU and -15 at Drake, three games they were never in) the Shockers lost four-straight beginning with a swing at UNI/BU followed by the home finale with DU/CU. Three of those four losses were by four points or less, and if my memory serves me correctly, a stop or two down the stretch at Bradley could have provided a different outcome (I think we only trailed by 5-6 in the latter moments at their place). Take 3 of those four, and the two buzzer beaters and that is five games (with a better defense) the Shockers could have won, taking the win total to a 14-15 record instead of 9-20.

With that, I would say the line between success and failure in this league is very thin, and if there could be just a little bit of improvement on defense, we could see big dividends. The non-conference schedule away certainly does the Shockers no favors, but I really don't think we are that far away from having a winner in this town, if some level of improvement can be made on the defensive side.

The guards are going to have to shoulder more of the load as well and be active on the glass. While Samantha was impressive in Canada, she will take a while to get her legs under her, and our 2's and 3's are going to have to crash the boards harder to stay in the rebounding game. The good news on that front is we should have a decent rotation of guards, so there should be no reason to have dead legs on the floor in crucial moments.

Southern Illinois' jump up the ladder last season should be further proof that experience and marginal improvement can result in very good things for a team. Whether this team does it or not has yet to be seen, but there is no reason that this team cannot be in the 15-17 win region this year if small amounts of improvement are made at all.

[1972Shocker]

Hopefully, the Shockers will be able to improve in the areas needed.

One thing to keep in mind is that only UNI and Bradley lost much from last year's rosters. I expect the Shocks to move ahead of these two teams.

Illinois State did not lose a lost of numbers but the did lose a very good player in Carlai Moore. This puts them in a similar situation to the Shocks needing to replace Antionette Wells athleticism and production.

All the other teams, who are returning as much, and in most cases more, than the Shocks from last year, will also be working on improving their weaknesses. So we not only have to improve but we need to improve at a greater rate than the rest of the MVC.

I would not be surprised to see a much improved MSU team. I just have a feeling that their coaching change will make a major impact on them. Of course, I thought (hoped) Jane was going to do the same for the Shocks 4 years ago and so far it has not happened.

[Snapshot9]

I think you guys are being overly optimistic, which isn't a bad thing, by any means, although it departs from reality a little.

Good coaches turn things around, and keep them going in a positive direction in short order, i.e., Turgeon, Marshall. They put winning records on the board and keep them going up. That's what good coaches do.

Mediorce coaches plug along for years trying to figure out their problems, which they never do, and they end up the same way they started out.

[1972Shocker]

I think you guys are being overly optimistic, which isn't a bad thing, by any means, although it departs from reality a little.

That's depressing since the most optimistic prediction I believe has been 15-15 by SubGod22. Of the 6 predictions made so far I think the average is 10.5 wins for this year.

I think I predicted 12-18 (5-13 in the MVC). If that is optimistic in your view then so be it. I would be interested in what you are predicting.

Note: I have predicted the regular season only. I haven't given the MVC Tournament much thought, but based on my prediction the Shocks will be in one of the play-in games. They might actually win a play-in game, but that would be about it.

[TweetieShock]

Carlai Moore played for Southern Illinois. Her loss will certainly be felt with the Salukis, but I would guess the Redbirds would be happy to see her gone, as is the rest of the league.

I don't think this is all on the head coach, per se. Even Turgeon struggled to keep the group going without Tad Boyle, so we will see what kind of difference the two new assistants make on the men's side.

Lots of staff changes in the Valley this year. Creighton, Drake UNI, MSU, WSU, SIU if not anyone else from the others. I don't think its pie-in-the-sky to expect a respectable performance from this team this year. The trip to Canada should help along with the breath of fresh air in the new assistants.

It will be an enormous dissapointment if this team underachieves (which is definitely a possibility). Pieces are there. Time for it to come together.

[1972Shocker]

Carlai Moore played for Southern Illinois. Her loss will certainly be felt with the Salukis, but I would guess the Redbirds would be happy to see her gone, as is the rest of the league.

I don't think this is all on the head coach, per se. Even Turgeon struggled to keep the group going without Tad Boyle, so we will see what kind of difference the two new assistants make on the men's side.

Lots of staff changes in the Valley this year. Creighton, Drake UNI, MSU, WSU, SIU if not anyone else from the others. I don't think its pie-in-the-sky to expect a respectable performance from this team this year. The trip to Canada should help along with the breath of fresh air in the new assistants.

It will be an enormous dissapointment if this team underachieves (which is definitely a possibility). Pieces are there. Time for it to come together.

My bad regarding Carlai. Thanks for the correction.

Just curious what kind of record you're expecting and what record would you consider as underacheiving.

Based on the posters who have been willing to put a number on the board a 10-20 year is the average expectation. Therefore, the consensus is 10 wins would not be underachieving for this team. I am assuming your expectations are well above that.

[TweetieShock]

I don't think I am qualified to make any predictions about the upcoming season, there are way too many intangibles for any of us to really venture a guess. Let it be known I happen to like Ms. Albright. And I am rooting for this team to have success this season.

This team should be above .500 for the season. When we finished 8-10 in the league two years ago, it was good enough for sole possession of 5th. An 8-10 mark this season would probably put the Shockers hovering right around .500, and avoiding a play-in game in St. Charles.

I will say I think this team is capable of 17 wins or so, so less than .500 this year would be an absolute disaster, and I am afraid curtains for the Albright regime.

It's definitely going to be an interesting ride, one we should know something about early. The roadie at Texas-San Antonio is an absolute must-win for confidence sake on the road. Chalk the A&M game up as a loss, but the Shockers should be competitive at least with Indiana and really need to come away with a W over Wake.

Coming home from the Islands with a 3-2 record overall would be a huge success in my book. Coming back 2-3 is very possible, but I would hope the third loss was to Wake and not at San Antonio. Coming home 1-4 would be disastrous.

All of these scenarios are possible in my eye, and believe it or not, we are about 8 weeks from having a really good idea of what direction the Shocker program is heading.

I know Albright has coached in NCAA's and WNIT's and all. But the first five games of this season will be absolutely crucial to her legacy both here and overall.

The clock is ticking.

[1972Shocker]

I don't think I am qualified to make any predictions about the upcoming season, there are way too many intangibles for any of us to really venture a guess. Let it be known I happen to like Ms. Albright. And I am rooting for this team to have success this season.

This team should be above .500 for the season. When we finished 8-10 in the league two years ago, it was good enough for sole possession of 5th. An 8-10 mark this season would probably put the Shockers hovering right around .500, and avoiding a play-in game in St. Charles.

I will say I think this team is capable of 17 wins or so, so less than .500 this year would be an absolute disaster, and I am afraid curtains for the Albright regime.

It's definitely going to be an interesting ride, one we should know something about early. The roadie at Texas-San Antonio is an absolute must-win for confidence sake on the road. Chalk the A&M game up as a loss, but the Shockers should be competitive at least with Indiana and really need to come away with a W over Wake.

Coming home from the Islands with a 3-2 record overall would be a huge success in my book. Coming back 2-3 is very possible, but I would hope the third loss was to Wake and not at San Antonio. Coming home 1-4 would be disastrous.

All of these scenarios are possible in my eye, and believe it or not, we are about 8 weeks from having a really good idea of what direction the Shocker program is heading.

I know Albright has coached in NCAA's and WNIT's and all. But the first five games of this season will be absolutely crucial to her legacy both here and overall.

The clock is ticking.

Fair enough, but if being qualified is a prerequisite before making a prediction then we might as well shut down ShockerNet!

;-)

In any case, I also like Jane and it wouldn't really hurt my feelings one bit if she proves just how really dumb I am.

:wsu_posters: