Shocker SB at Northern Iowa

[1972Shocker]

I will leave it to @flyingMoose: to post his typically stellar pre-series review. However, due to weather there has been a change in schedule.

They are going to play a single game on Friday at Noon and a DH starting at 11:00 am on Saturday.

http://www.goshockers.com/news/2017/4/27/softball-series-vs-uni-moved-to-friday-saturday.aspx

[flyingMoose]

I was wondering if a schedule change of some sort was coming.

As has been pointed out, this is a key series for the Shockers. They trail second-place Northern Iowa by a game and one-half in the Valley standings. Finishing in one of the first two spots gives you a double-bye in the conference tournament, requiring you to win only two games to win the tournament and get the auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Shockers close the season by hosting Evansville, while Northern Iowa visits Illinois State. There is hope.

The Panthers have a 15-6 record in the Valley. The offense is led by Anna Varriano (OPS of 1.140 and five homers), Sammey Bunch (1.006) and, with a few more than half the games played, Ashley Chesser (1.099 and three homers). Alyssa Buchanan and Jaclyn Spencer are within two outs of having the same number of innings pitched. Buchanan has an ERA of 1.22 and a WHIP of 0.86!, while the numbers for Spencer are 2.25 and 1.14.

The Shocks are 13-7 in conference play. Mackenzie and McKenzie continue to lead the offense during conference. Mackenzie has an OPS of 1.243 with four homers, while McKenzie is at 1.071. Others are Madison (.973 and four homers), Laurie (.923 and five homers) and Kelli (.909). Since Asea took over the DP spot, she has an OPS of 1.055 in about half of the games.

Katie has an ERA of 2.08 with a WHIP of 1.24. The numbers for Jenni are 2.13 and 1.30.

[1972Shocker]

Katie has an ERA of 2.08 with a WHIP of 1.24. The numbers for Jenni are 2.13 and 1.30.

If you told me those were going to be Katie's and Jenni's numbers at this point I would have projected more like 17-3 or 16-4 after 20 conference games yet here the Shocks are at 13-7.

I have to admit this has been a very competitive conference season.

[ShockTalk]

If you told me those were going to be Katie's and Jenni's numbers at this point I would have projected more like 17-3 or 16-4 after 20 conference games yet here the Shocks are at 13-7.

I have to admit this has been a very competitive conference season.

Most of that record difference is probably due to poor fielding. One generally thinks of pitching and hitting when projecting a record or general success.

[1972Shocker]

Most of that record difference is probably due to poor fielding. One generally thinks of pitching and hitting when projecting a record or general success.

The Shockers have had some defensive issues at time this year but in looking at their 7 Valley losses I only see 1 of those that can be attributed to poor defense. That was their last loss, a 5-4 game in Carbondale. So while defense did contribute in some ways to their losses the losses do not appear to be mostly due to poor defense.

Here is a look at their 7 losses:

Illinois State: Score 3-5; 1 Error, 1 Unearned Run
Illinois State: Score 8-3; 1 Error, 2 Unearned Runs
Loyola: Score 2-1; 0 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Bradley: Score 1-0; 0 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Missouri State: Score 4-0, 2 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Southern Illinois: Score 3-2, 1 Error, 0 Unearned Runs
Souhtern Illinois: Score 5-4, 2 Errors, 3 Unearned Runs

[ShockTalk]

The Shockers have had some defensive issues at time this year but in looking at their 7 Valley losses I only see 1 of those that can be attributed to poor defense. That was their last loss, a 5-4 game in Carbondale. So while defense did contribute in some ways to their losses the losses do not appear to be mostly due to poor defense.

Here is a look at their 7 losses:

Illinois State: Score 3-5; 1 Error, 1 Unearned Run
Illinois State: Score 8-3; 1 Error, 2 Unearned Runs
Loyola: Score 2-1; 0 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Bradley: Score 1-0; 0 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Missouri State: Score 4-0, 2 Errors, 0 Unearned Runs
Southern Illinois: Score 3-2, 1 Error, 0 Unearned Runs
Souhtern Illinois: Score 5-4, 2 Errors, 3 Unearned Runs

I can agree with that last statement, however, just because there are no unearned runs or not enough to make the score difference, that doesn't tell the whole story.

Example: The first game against IL St. The error during the second batter changed how that inning would be played by both sides. Runner on 1st, no outs. Batter ends up on first base on sac attempt due to the throwing error. Instead of 1 out, 1 on 2nd, you have 0 outs, 2 on. Now IL St can try (successfully) to sacrifice again to get runners on 2nd and 3rd and have only 1 out. Had the out been made at 1st without the error, IL St would likely not have tried to sacrifice as that would have put a runner on 3rd, but there would likely have been 2 outs. No play at home is necessary to get the last out and no run scored.

[1972Shocker]

I can agree with that last statement, however, just because there are no unearned runs or not enough to make the score difference, that doesn't tell the whole story.

Example: The first game against IL St. The error during the second batter changed how that inning would be played by both sides. Runner on 1st, no outs. Batter ends up on first base on sac attempt due to the throwing error. Instead of 1 out, 1 on 2nd, you have 0 outs, 2 on. Now IL St can try (successfully) to sacrifice again to get runners on 2nd and 3rd and have only 1 out. Had the out been made at 1st without the error, IL St would likely not have tried to sacrifice as that would have put a runner on 3rd, but there would likely have been 2 outs. No play at home is necessary to get the last out and no run scored.

I don't disagree with that but you then also have to analyze every excellent defensive play in that and other games as well and there were some. I think the Shocks have lost several games overall this year due to defensive problems, the LSU game being the most painful of those. Of course, we are talking Valley games here.

My only point is to say these losses were due mostly to defensive deficiencies seems to be at a minimum a bit of an overstatement. In a couple of games the pitching faltered and in more than a couple of games the hitting faltered. If I had to attach the tag of mostly to any phase of the game I would attach it to the hitting with a tip of the cap to the opponents pitching.

[1972Shocker]

Additional Change in Schedule

Friday's game vs UNI has been pushed back sometime to Friday evening but the game time remains TBA.

The hourly forecast doesn't look too promising.

[flyingMoose]

Okay, here it comes - more than you want to know. This is kind of related to the discussion above.

There is a notion called Pythagorean Expectation developed for baseball by Bill James, the original sabermetrician (and a KU grad). Using Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, one can calculate the expected Winning Percentage. (The details are left to you and Mr. Google.) Folks have adapted his formula for collegiate softball, actually the exponent used. Using that exponent, the expected records for the top three in the Valley in the format of Team (Actual) Expected, we have

Illinois State (18-3) 15-6
Northern Iowa (15-6) 15-6
Shockers (13-7) 14-6

So the Redbirds have won more than their share of close games, being three wins better than expected?


More directly related to the discussion above, 70% of the Runs Allowed by the Shockers have been earned. For Illinois State and Northern Iowa, the numbers are 81% and 80%. As noted above, a second baseman with limited range will not show up in these numbers. The ground balls she doesn't get to that others get to will result in earned runs.

[flyingMoose]

Friday's game has been cancelled. Saturday's DH is scheduled for a 10am start.

[1972Shocker]

Friday's game has been cancelled. Saturday's DH is scheduled for a 10am start.

Puts a bit more pressure on the Shocks to sweep tomorrow's DH.

[1972Shocker]

Friday's game has been cancelled. Saturday's DH is scheduled for a 10am start.

Apparently, it is a matter of the field simply being too wet or sloppy to play on as right now (5:45 pm) there is no rain in Cedar Falls ans it looks like they could of played this evening if the field would allow. Although a temperature of 44 would not be particularly pleasant on a wet field.

[flyingMoose]

Apparently, it is a matter of the field simply being too wet or sloppy to play on as right now (5:45 pm) there is no rain in Cedar Falls ans it looks like they could of played this evening the the field would allow. Although a temperature of 44 would not be particularly pleasant on a wet field.

The Valley schools are required to have a tarp on their infield. If a field is unplayable because the school failed to roll out the tarp, their games are forfeited. So the water in the outfield is ankle deep? The host school determines if the field is in good enough shape to start the games. One would hope that there are reasonably well-defined criteria for that decision so that a school cannot "play games."

[1972Shocker]

The Valley schools are required to have a tarp on their infield. If a field is unplayable because the school failed to roll out the tarp, their games are forfeited. So the water in the outfield is ankle deep? The host school determines if the field is in good enough shape to start the games. One would hope that there are reasonably well-defined criteria for that decision so that a school cannot "play games."

I don't know. From what I saw on the radar at 5:45 pm and at 8:15 pm there was no rain falling in Cedar Falls. So it had to be the condition of the field I guess.

[flyingMoose]

Game One

Katie has the start, while Jaclyn Spencer is in the circle for Northern Iowa. The Shocker lineup is Mackenzie-5, Kelli-4, McKenzie-7, Macklin-3, Laurie-6, Madison-2, Asea-DP, Paige-9, Ashley-8.