WSU Softball vs Missouri State - Tue 05/03; 6:00pm

[1972Shocker]

The Lady Shocks take on the Missouri State Bears on Tuesday at 6:00pm. I will leave it to @flyingMoose to provide his usual stellar scouting report.

However, I do want to point out that the Lady Shocks can clinch a Valley Co-Championship and the #1 seed in the Valley Tournament with a win over the Lady Bears.

A win will eliminate UNI and SIU from title contention and clinch a tie with Drake. The Shocks own the tiebreaker over Drake on the strength of the sweep of the Drake.

:poster_shocks:

The Shocks have a 3-game home series at home vs SIU this Saturday and Sunday to close out the regular season.

[1972Shocker]

Drake hosts Bradley this weekend in Des Moines. Interestingly, Bradley could actually pass Drake in the standings with a 3-game sweep although that would be a bit surprising. However, Drake is 2-8 in their last 10 Valley games after getting off to a 12-0 start in league play.

[1972Shocker]

Promotions for Missouri State game:
Dollar Night - $1 Tickets, $1 hot dogs, $1 drinks
Baseball Ticket Redemption - FREE admission for Wichita State baseball vs. Kansas State with Missouri State softball ticket stub

[flyingMoose]

This game, postponed from a week ago, completes the "travel partner" series between these two teams. On Wednesday, Southern Illinois visits Evansville to complete the entire set of Valley travel-partner series.

Missouri State has a Valley record of 8-12 and is fighting for a spot in the Valley Tournament. After the Wednesday game mentioned above, one will know who has to do what to qualify, as only the top eight teams qualify for the Tournament.

Since these teams last played two weeks ago, Erin Streumph has moved from reigning Pitcher of the Week to the number two on the Bears' staff. I expect Kaitlin Beason, who was the loser in the 3-2 game in Springfield, to get the start against the Shocks. Since then, she pitched well against Northern Iowa (although she lost her one start when Streumph gave up a game-untieing home run) and shutout Evansville. Her current ERA in the Valley is 4.03 with a WHIP of 1.54. Streumph also has an ERA of 4.03, and her WHIP is 1.61. Although the numbers for the two pitchers are equivalent, they are headed in different directions.

The offense for Missouri State is led by Erin Duewel with an OPS of 1.038 and four homers. Olivia Roark has the fourth highest BA in the Valley at .409, but all of her hits but one are singles and she has no walks, so her OPS is only in the .800s. No other Bear hitter even reaches the .800 level.

On the other hand, the Shockers have a veritable plethora of very nice OPS: Macklin (1.252 and six home runs), PaigeL (1.242 and seven home runs), Cacy (1.196 and seven home runs), Liz (1.111 and a BA of .441, second in the Valley) and Brittany (1.056 and four home runs).

Jenni has an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.44, but her availability is unknown. Katie, who has been effective of late, has an ERA of 4.10 and a WHIP of 1.63. Kelsey's numbers are 3.63 and 1.62.

The RPI ranking of the Shockers is now 50.

[1972Shocker]

The RPI ranking of the Shockers is now 50.

Do you think if the Shocks win out until the Championship game of the Valley Tournament that they might have a shot at an at-large bid? Probably not much to gain in RPI vs Valley teams but if they do manage to do that they will have won 15 of 16 to close out the season.

I really am not fond of post-season tournaments for selecting auto-bids but I really dislike the single-elimination format the Valley uses for softball.

[flyingMoose]

Do you think if the Shocks win out until the Championship game of the Valley Tournament that they might have a shot at an at-large bid? Probably not much to gain in RPI vs Valley teams but if they do manage to do that they will have won 15 of 16 to close out the season.

I really am not fond of post-season tournaments for selecting auto-bids but I really dislike the single-elimination format the Valley uses for softball.

I think there is some chance, although I have never looked to see what kind of RPI typically gets an at-large bid.

At least in the current single-elimination format, there is some reward for finishing well in the regular season, receiving either one or two byes. I would have to do a little research (which I have done before but do not have the time to do until much later this evening), but I think there were six teams in the tournament the last time the Valley used double-elimination. So there are tradeoffs in number of weekends in conference which mean something and number of teams competing in a tournament and number of losses to be eliminated. Depending on one's personal preferences, you could have every team in a double-elimination tournament all the way to no tournament at all.

[1972Shocker]

Paul Suellentrop's article on Shocks closing in on Valley regular season title.

Interesting comments on Katie Malone's recent improvement:

“She’s focused a little more on keeping the ball down,” Bredbenner said. “When she really struggled, she was trying to do too much with it. She was trying to throw a curve, and a backdoor curve, and a riseball and screwball and a drop and a change and none of them were really very good. We were trying to practice too much, instead of really just honing in on throwing two or three pitches and focus on where we’re going to spot them.”

No comment on Jenny's being injured so I guess that is good.

Also discussed Shocker's at-large chances briefly:

WSU controls the MVC race and a strong finish will help its borderline NCAA at-large resume. It ranks No. 50 in the NCAA’s power ranking (RPI), a range that Bredbenner said can produce at-large teams. The Shockers own wins over No 32 Nebraska, No. 42 Tulsa, No. 44 Kansas and No. 45 South Alabama. Ten of its losses are to teams ranked in the top 40.

The Shockers haven’t lost to team ranked lower than 150 and keeping that mark intact will be important this week against No. 186 Missouri State.

“We’re in the mix,” Bredbenner said. “This week is a huge week for us. We can’t afford a loss to Missouri State. And we can’t afford to lose two out of three to SIU. If something like that happens, we’re going to take a hit.”

[flyingMoose]

Paul Suellentrop's article on Shocks closing in on Valley regular season title.

Interesting comments on Katie Malone's recent improvement.

I was dumbfounded when I read that. You only have so many reps in a practice session. And you are going to spend those reps developing six mediocre pitches rather than three good-to-very-good pitches?! You are only a junior in college before someone makes that decision? Or maybe it took that long for coach and pitcher to get on the same page.

No comment on Jenny's being injured so I guess that is good.

I would not read too much into that. If you have a player hurt, you are not going to tell your opponents so that they can simplify their preparation.

[1972Shocker]

You wonder with Katie was she fooling around with all those pitches all along during her Shocker career or did PCRS push that on her this year and either he or HCKB decided that wasn't working and to KISS.

I am certainly not taking the lack of comment on Jenni as gospel that she is okay. But it at least leaves that possibility open and that maybe she was either sick, just had a minor injury or perhaps was being disciplined for some reason. I guess we will find out soon enough.

[flyingMoose]

You wonder with Katie was she fooling around with all those pitches all along during her Shocker career or did PCRS push that on her this year and either he or HCKB decided that wasn't working and to KISS.

Good question.

Conference only-

2014: ERA of 3.34, WHIP of 1.54
2015: 2.66 and 1.36
2016: 4.10 and 1.63 (to date)

At any rate, let's go back to whatever she was doing last year.

[1972Shocker]

Looks like Katie has the start in the circle for the Shocks. And Kaitlin Beason is starting for MSU as @flyingMoose: predicted.

[1972Shocker]

Shocks lead 3-0 after 5 but kind of letting MSU hang around. Have left 9 runners stranded so far. Katie did a good job working around a leadoff triple in the top of the 5th.

[1972Shocker]

Crap! An infield single (?) and 2 walks load the bases for MSU in the 6th and Katie reverts to her earlier form and gives up a grand slam. MSU now leads 4-3.

That can happen when you let a team hang around and don't take advantage of numerous opportunities. Shocks now need to find a way to come back which they are certainly capable of doing.

[1972Shocker]

Shocks got what the needed in the bottom of the 6th. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and Macklin Hitz and Liz Broyles coming to bat. A ground out to 3B and a ground out to the pitcher end the threat.

Bottom of the order will have to get it done in the 7th.

[1972Shocker]

Jenni Brooks in to pitch the 7th.