2013-2014 Valley WBB

[1972Shocker]

Loyola closed out Valley non-con play with a 77-63 win at perennial doormat Chicago State.

The Valley finishes non-con play at a collective 44-66 (0.400).

The Shocks at 9-2 and Drake at 6-5 are the only Valley teams at or above 0.500.

Shocks RPI keeps deteriorating during their hiatus from play and now sits at 75. Looks like it's St. Charles or Bust as far as NCAA play is concerned.

Still you want to have a strong Valley regular season to secure the best seed possible whether that's in the NCAA or WNIT.

Go Shocks!

[flyingMoose]

For grins, with conference games beginning tomorrow, here are the current RPI and predicted final MVC standings from Warren Nolan. If RealTime updates their info later today, I will try to post it here also.

75 Wichita State
116 Missouri State
127 Indiana State
141 Drake
162 Northern Iowa
198 Loyola-Chicago
212 Bradley
228 Evansville
291 Illinois State
340 Southern Illinois


15-3 Wichita State
13-5 Missouri State
12-6 Indiana State
12-6 Drake
11-7 Northern Iowa
8-10 Loyola-Chicago
8-10 Bradley
7-11 Evansville
4-14 Illinois State
1-17 Southern Illinois

Only the Shockers (53) and Missouri State (89) are predicted to have season-ending RPIs less than 100.

[1972Shocker]

I think those Warren Nolan projections look pretty reasonable. However, his totals are 91-89, so someone will have 1 less loss and 1 more win.

[flyingMoose]

However, his totals are 91-89, so someone will have 1 less loss and 1 more win.

I did wonder how those projected standings were arrived at (RealTime actually says which games are won and lost), but I assumed that the totals would at least be correct. Silly me.

[flyingMoose]

RealTime has now posted its RPIs and projected standings.

75 Wichita State
116 Indiana State
127 Missouri State
137 Drake
158 Northern Iowa
201 Loyola-Chicago
216 Bradley
225 Evansville
293 Illinois State
340 Southern Illinois

You will note discrepancies in the RPIs from those of Warren Nolan, particularly for Missouri State and Indiana State. I have no idea.


18-0 Wichita State
11-7 Missouri State
10-8 Indiana State
11-7 Drake
10-8 Northern Iowa
10-8 Loyola-Chicago
7-11 Bradley
11-7 Evansville
0-18 Illinois State
2-16 Southern Illinois

I left the teams in the projected standings in the same order as Warren Nolan. Frankly, I think the projected records of RealTime are pure gibberish. But at least they balance.

[WuDrWu]

Good answer.

I like the way you think....I'm going to be watching you.

[1972Shocker]

Frankly, I think the projected records of RealTime are pure gibberish.

Agreed. I think RealTimeRPI maybe places too much weight on home court advantage. Not that this in not a significant factor but RealTimeRPI seems to take it to an extreme in projecting wins and losses.

[flyingMoose]

However, his totals are 91-89, so someone will have 1 less loss and 1 more win.

With conference starting tonight, the totals are now 92-88 (Indiana State moved to 13-5). I found one other conference (there may be more) not in balance, but also found several others that balanced. I assume he uses some algorithm based on the RPIs and their relative distance from each other to arrive at an end-of-conference record. (Perhaps his Nolan Power Index is part of the calculation, too.) At any rate, with an imprecise algorithm and rounding error, you could get unbalanced results. Clearly, his projected standings are "just a suggestion." :)

[oldtimewomen's hoopcoach]

With conference starting tonight, the totals are now 92-88 (Indiana State moved to 13-5). I found one other conference (there may be more) not in balance, but also found several others that balanced. I assume he uses some algorithm based on the RPIs and their relative distance from each other to arrive at an end-of-conference record. (Perhaps his Nolan Power Index is part of the calculation, too.) At any rate, with an imprecise algorithm and rounding error, you could get unbalanced results. Clearly, his projected standings are "just a suggestion." :)

All that matters is we need to bring our "A" game each time and RPI standings won't matter. The girls are practicing hard leading up to Sunday. Double days, very intense.

[1972Shocker]

Home teams hold serve on in opening Valley play on Thursday, Jan 2nd.

@SIU 100 - Bradley 96 in double OT. Bradley hit 24-35 free throws to stay in the game.

@Evansvlle 75 - Loyola 57

[flyingMoose]

@SIU 100 - Bradley 96 in double OT. Bradley hit 24-35 free throws to stay in the game.

Bradley had a seven-point lead with less than three minutes to play and could not hold the lead.

[1972Shocker]

Bradley had a seven-point lead with less than three minutes to play and could not hold the lead.

I see that, and a 9-point lead with 3:15 to go.

SIU hosts LOY on Saturday so it's possible the Salukis will be 2-0 in league play before the Shocks play a Valley game.

[1972Shocker]

Results from Friday, Jan 3rd:

@Indiana State 60 - UNI 53

@Illinois State 80 - Drake 71

I'm a little surprised by the Illinois State win over Drake but it was in Normal. So far home teams are 4-0 in the 1st weekend of Valley play.

The Shocks RPI has now gone from around 53 to 77 during their 2 week layoff.

[oldtimewomen's hoopcoach]

Results from Friday, Jan 3rd:

@Indiana State 60 - UNI 53

@Illinois State 80 - Drake 71

I'm a little surprised by the Illinois State win over Drake but it was in Normal. So far home teams are 4-0 in the 1st weekend of Valley play.

The Shocks RPI has now gone from around 57 to 77 during their 2 week layoff.

We'll take care of the home win streak tomorrow.

[1972Shocker]

We'll take care of the home win streak tomorrow.

Guess not. Both SIU and Evansville lost at home today and both to bad teams. Loyola won @SIU 60-48 and Bradley who had lost in double OT @ SIU went on the road to Evansville and beat the Aces 77-76.