What Lies Ahead

[1972Shocker]

Obviously, if the Shocks can win the MVC Tournament they can make the remainder of the regular season incidental. However, with our history in the MVC Tournament that is not something I would want to have to rely on.

A 3rd consecutive MVC regular season Championship seems highly unlikely right now. Northern Iowa is 3 games up on the Shocks and while they still have to complete the MSU-WSU road trip their otheer remaining 4 matches are at home (ILS, INS, CU, DU).

If UNI would happen to lose to both MSU and the Shocks on the road, then the Shocks would be one game behind both MSU and UNI (assuming they take care of business in their other 5 matches (Bradley at home and EU, SIU, ILS and INS on the road) and would need some help to move into a 1st or second place tie. MSU has the same remaining schedule as the Shocks. The most likely opportunity for help with UNI would be from Creighton when they take on UNI in Cedar Falls on the last weekend of the regular season. A lot of things would have to go right for this to happen and I think that makes it a pretty long shot at this point.

I think that a more realistic scenario for the Shocks would be for them to move into a 2nd place tie with MSU. We would need UNI to win in Springfield and then for the Shockers to knock of UNI in Wichita and for the Shocks to match MSU in their remaining matches. Presumably, the Shocks would gain the #2 seed in the MVC (and the 1st round bye) by virtue of a 1-1 record vs UNI versus MSU's 0-2 record vs UNI.

I think a 1st round bye in the MVC Tournament is a worthy prize, especially this year. It eliminates the possibility of a potentially very tough 1st round match with Creighton on their home court.

I think that if the Shocks win out and win one-match in the MVC Tournament we will make the NCAA Tournament, although losing in the Semi-Finals of the Tournament might very well put us squarely on the bubble and in jeapardy. Win out and get to the Tournament championship game should do the trick, especially if UNI also makes the Championship game.

Bottom Line: Shocks win out and make it to the MVC Championship game vs UNI we should make the dance. Anything less than that does not elimimate us but would make things a little bit dicey.

[WuDrWu]

Spot on. The only thing I would take just a SLIGHT issue with is if WSU loses only to UNI and loses in the finals, or wins out and loses in the semis or finals, I think we are in.

RPI is still pretty good (last I checked 33) and I think for the first time ever, we could (will) get a bit of a bump based on name and history. We've never lost in the first round of the tourney, and I still think we pass the eye test.

When the ladies play to 90+% of their capabilities, there is no doubt in my mind, NONE, that they are a top 20 or better club.

[1972Shocker]

Spot on. The only thing I would take just a SLIGHT issue with is if WSU loses only to UNI and loses in the finals, or wins out and loses in the semis or finals, I think we are in.

I think you are probably on target with your assessment Doc, although with Volleyball in particular, we just don't want to be handing the selection committee any room for excuses to leave the Shocks at home.

Still a lot of work to do and a lot of reward available if we can finish out the season strong. The last two weekends are a big step in the right direction. let's hope it is onward and upward from here.

:goshocks:

[SpanglerFan316]

I think we need to win the MVC tourney. I hope I'm wrong.

[shock10]

It's the bcs tournament your not wrong.

[1972Shocker]

It's the bcs tournament your not wrong.

MVC did get 3 teams in last year.

Thought I would look at how some of our non-conference opponents are doing:

Pitt is 17-8 overall; 9-2 and in 3rd place in the Big East. Makes our loss to them not as bad as originally thought.

Louisville is 14-9 overall; 7-3 and tied for 4th in the Big East. Solid win especially since it was on Louisville's home court, but maybe not quite as good as hoped as I think Louisville was favored to win the Big East.

Oklahoma is 15-7 overall; 8-5 in the Big XII good for 5th place. This is probably a better performance than I was expecting out of OU this year.

UNC is 11-12 overall; 7-5 and in 5th place in the ACC. So-so. Hopefully, the Tarheels finish the season strong.

South Carolina is 12-9 overall; 4-8 and in 5th (last) in the SEC East Division. That win probably has been somewhat de-valued.

Rice is 16-8 overall and a somewhat disappointing 8-5 in Conference USA which is 5th place which is below my expectations.

Some good, some not so good news, but overall the good and the bad pretty much cancel out. No total disasters I guess.

IMHO, we can still make the dance without winning the MVC Tournament but we can only afford 2 more losses at most. 1 to UNI on November 14th and one to either UNI or MSU in the MVC Tournament. If we beat UNI on November 14th we might still make it if we lose to say Creighton on their home court in the MVC Tournament. Of course we do that, and assuming we are lucky enougth to get in, we are probably looking at a 4 seed.

It doesn't make much difference whether we are a 2 seed or a 3 seed in the 1st round. A 4-seed would make it tough to get past the 1st round.

Of course, what we are all hoping for is a sweep of all remaining games, including the MVC Tournament, in order to remove all doubt and to, hopefully, avoid a 4-seed at Lincoln or Austin.

:goshocks:

[flyingMoose]

NCAA RPI through games of 1 November:

24 UNI
26 Shocks
45 Missouri State.

UNI are the only Valley team in the AVCA poll, being T-25 in this week's poll.

I think UNI are in. I think the Shocks are in if they get to the finals of the MVC tourney and have some chance if they only reach the semis. I think Missouri State has to reach the finals of the MVC and that may not be good enough.

But what do I know? :)

[1stThings1st]

IF we are the best team in the MVC (and I think we are the best) then we must show up and win the MVC tournament. Then no one has to guess, state thier wishes, or wait on someone from all over the place who could care less about WSU volleyball holding our fate at playing in the NCAA. We win the MVC tourney because we are the best team. Keep improving like we have for the last 3 weeks and we can go to Nebraska and shock them all.

[SpanglerFan316]

Right now, WSU has a NCAA RPI ranking of #26 Wichita St. Missouri Valley and a Pablo ranking of #27. If we win out and get to the MVC tourney final, we might be in. Who knows?

[SpanglerFan316]

I looked at the attendance figures in https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf5/6...00&SPSID=36348. To average 3000 fans per match, we need a total of 8,196 fans to attend the Bradley and UNI matches. Beating UNI at Koch might stamp our At-Large ticket to the NCAA tourney. If you haven't attended a match this year, now is the time. If you have, you know the team is healthy and playing well. Come out and enjoy the show. Say goodbye to all the departing seniors.

Fri, Nov 13 Bradley * - - Wichita 7 p.m.
Sat, Nov 14 Northern Iowa * - - Wichita 7 p.m.

[1972Shocker]

I looked at the attendance figures in https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf5/6...00&SPSID=36348. To average 3000 fans per match, we need a total of 8,196 fans to attend the Bradley and UNI matches. Beating UNI at Koch might stamp our At-Large ticket to the NCAA tourney. If you haven't attended a match this year, now is the time. If you have, you know the team is healthy and playing well. Come out and enjoy the show. Say goodbye to all the departing seniors.

Fri, Nov 13 Bradley * - - Wichita 7 p.m.
Sat, Nov 14 Northern Iowa * - - Wichita 7 p.m.

I calculate we need to draw 8,981 to average 3,000 per match.

Based on the stats at goShockers.com we have drawn 30,019 for 11 home dates. We would need to draw 39,000 (3,000 x 13) to average 3,000 for the year.

Bradley probably won't draw real well being winless in the conference and being on Friday night. Bradley is a Wichita Eagle Family Night (4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, 4 popcorns and 4 drinks for $28). Still I think we will do well to draw 2,500 for Bradley. We have UNI on Saturday night so for those fans who only have time/money for one night out, no doubt the UNI match is mutch more attractive.

As you pointed out UNI could be a huge match (we really need to take care of business at Evansville and SIU this weekend). They are selling advance tickets for $3 each. Plus we have a great group of Seniors led by one of the best, if not the best, Shocker volleyball players ever in Emily Stockman. But even if we draw 5,000 for UNI we probably will not make it to the 39,000 mark, although I would love to be proven wrong.

You can buy your tickets here:

http://ev10.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/SEGetEventList?groupCode=VBS&linkID=wichita&shopperContext=&caller=&appCode=

[flyingMoose]

UNI remains the only Valley team in the latest AVCA poll at 22.

NCAA RPI:

20 Wichita State
31 UNI


Pablo:

23 UNI
25 Wichita State


To make the NCAA tournament, I don't think the "minimums" regarding the conference tournament have changed: UNI is in, Shocks must make the finals, Missouri State must win. The semis might be good enough for the Shocks, but I do not think making the semis is good enough for Missouri State. BWDIK.

[1972Shocker]

The semis might be good enough for the Shocks, but I do not think making the semis is good enough for Missouri State. BWDIK.

If the Shocks win out in the regular season which would include a big win over UNI this Saturday then I think they can lose in the semis and still get it in (although it may depend on who they lose to in the semis). You would think our RPI would be good enough, but predicting what the selection committee will do is impossible.

[SpanglerFan316]

The semis might be good enough for the Shocks, but I do not think making the semis is good enough for Missouri State. BWDIK.

If the Shocks win out in the regular season which would include a big win over UNI this Saturday then I think they can lose in the semis and still get it in (although it may depend on who they lose to in the semis). You would think our RPI would be good enough, but predicting what the selection committee will do is impossible.

The problem is all the other good "bubble teams" out there who might take up "our spot" in the tourney.

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=29616

MINNESOTA REGIONAL
4. IOWA STATE v. North Dakota State
Wichita St. v. Michigan State
(plus "No offense, baywatcher, but you are not providing any real learned insight here. You are just throwing out your opinion. Not that that is wrong, but please don't confuse that with what Lunardi does and has done, which is to extensively analyze the committee's actions.")

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=29320

Missouri Valley 1 3 Northern Iowa, Wichita State?, Missouri State?

[SpanglerFan316]

The way things have been going, we may have 8 Pac-10 teams invited.

Currently all teams are above .500. Oregon State and Arizona State are losing a lot in conference, but the others are not (4-5 or better) and if their records for the second half match the first half we'll have 8 teams with .500 or better overall records.
Those same 8 teams are ranked #30 or better in both Pablo and RKPI. Basically, this year any Pac-10 team that ends up over .500 looks like it should get invited.

And yes IB, you left out Washington State. I think I know what changed since 10/23.

http://volleytalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=29320