Comparing the 2007 & 2008 teams

[SpanglerFan316]

How do the 2007 and 2008 Shocker teams compare? There are many ways to answer this question. I would like to offer three in this initial post.

1. Personnel
We lost Sara Lungren and Abby Harsh and gained Mary Elizabeth Hooper (among players who see the court frequently). We "traded" Sarah McGee for Stephanie Tokarz. We lost a go to player in Sara. If you look at this (conference only) stat, I suspect that we ranked higher last year because of Sara. We're not putting the ball away as well as we should.
DIGS BY OPPONENTS S No. Avg/S
Bradley 50 731 14.62
Indiana State 50 752 15.04
Missouri State 56 874 15.61
Creighton 46 732 15.91
Drake 47 767 16.32
Wichita State 47 783 16.66
Evansville 42 703 16.74
Illinois State 48 861 17.94
Southern Illinois 47 848 18.04
Northern Iowa 49 925 18.88

http://www.mvc.org/vb/2008/confonly.htm

Abby had health/injury issues (e.g. bad back, migraines) and had some bad games when she was in pain. Mary Elizabeth brings us a much more consistent setter who is learning to set the ball for each player; MEH and Stephanie Tokarz still don't seem in sync. Mary brings good blocking and (sometimes good) dumps. Our huge class of juniors (in 2008) were sophomores in 2007 and should be more experienced; I'm not sure how to evaluate this.

Conclusion: We are more consistent because of Mary Elizabeth but we are "weaker" because Sara is gone. Sarah McGee is doing great but Stephanie Tokarz is playing less. Our OOC competition in 2008 was weaker than in 2007. The weaker schedule and healthy setter make an unbeaten season understandable.


2. Record
For records and stats, I am only looking at the MVC; this offers a better comparison of 2007 & 2008 teams.

We lost one match (1-3 vs. UNI) and a total of 9 "games" or "sets" in 2007 to MVC teams (in 18 regular season matches). So far, in 13 MVC matches, we have lost no matches but we have lost 8 "games" or "sets." In our 17 MVC season wins in 2007, we lost 6 "sets" while in 13 MVC season wins so far in 2008, we have lost 8 "sets."

Conclusion: It would not surprise me if we finished 18-0 in the MVC in 2008 because we're more consistent at setter. However I suspect that if each team played its best, the 2007 team would beat the 2008 team.


3. Coaching
Chris Lamb has been to the NCAA tourney twice. In the 2007 UNI@WSU match, the Shocks looked terrible and we lost 1-3. In 2008, Chris doesn't seem to be willing to accept a loss. Cal Poly killed us in the first two "sets" but he made changes and WSU won. Was this good coaching, the advantage of our huge roster and experience or both. In other matches, we have been behind and Lambo has found a way to win. Is our coaching better in 2008 than it was in 2007?

[RoyalShock]

Good analysis, Spangler.

While I couldn't quantify it myself, you pretty much described why I don't think we aren't the 10th/11th best team in the country. (Again, I understand how the polls work and am not criticizing the ranking or whether it is deserved.)

Having Sara on the right side and Emily on the left gave us a better attack, and the type of attack I would expect from a top-15 team. I know our defense is better, but if you can't put the ball away fairly consistently it puts too much pressure on the D.

[SpanglerFan316]

Royal: Thanks. I would like others to add their comparisons of the 2007 and 2008 teams. There are people here who have a better "inside" ("internal") view of Shocker volleyball; what do they think? There are former players who may have watched the 2007 and 2008 teams play.

Here are some topics someone might address.

A. What is the value of being able to "pull a rabbit out of the hat"? WSU has 20 people on the roster and many of them are OHs or MBs. Lamb seems to be able to pull an "unused" player off the bench and get the win. Sarah McGee got a shot vs. Cal Poly and has not looked back. Amanda Backes stepped in against UNI and has been playing. Kim Wadsworth got two service aces against UNI. ETC. (Could we do this against Texas or Nebraska?) When Sara got hurt (at Chapel Hill, N.C. in 2006), we were in trouble. Can we afford to replace any player? Emily Stockman? Mary Elizabeth Hooper? Kelly Broussard? Are we deeper in 2008 than in 2007?

B. Why does our serving look bad? Is it bad or does Lamb have different tactical goals than do other coaches? The 14 point run on UNI was great and represented serving weaker players rather than trying to get aces. Overall UNI looked to have better serving than did we. Drake served pretty well. How was our service game in 2007?

C. Why do we have so many errors? Service errors. Attack errors. REs. BHEs. BEs. (OK, blocking errors represent hard work). Against weaker teams, we hit the ball long or we hit the net or we hit the ball wide. Why? Were we this bad last year?

[1972Shocker]

I'm not smart enough to figure out who would win a hypothetical match between the 2007 and 2008 squads, although Emily and Kelly, as good as they are, would probably get tired playing both sides of the net. :D

In looking at the Y-T-D stats of the 2008 squad vs the stats for the 2007 squad we see the following:

Attack Percentage: 2008 = 0.239; 2007 = 0.253
Opponents Attack %: 2008 = 0.095; 2007 = 0.129
Net Attack Differentail: 2008 = 0.144; 2007 = 0.124

Blocking: 2008 = 2.39/S; 2007 = 2.43/S (about 2.03/G assuming 25 point sets).

Dig Differrential: 2008 = 1.48/S; 2007 = 2.06/S (about 1.72/S assuming 25 point sets).

Set Percentage: 2008 = 0.359; 2007 = 0.365

Service Percentage: 2008 = 0.922; 2007 = 0.903

Service Reception %: 2008 = 0.944; 2007 = 0.944
Opponents Recept %: 2008 = 0.945; 2007 = 0.934

General Ball Handling Errors: 2008 = 0.26: 2007 = 0.33 for 30 point games.

A little hard to compare some items due to the change to 25 point sets, but basically there is very little to separate the two squads.

As far as level of competition, we may have had a couple of tougher opponents last year, but this year we did not have any UMKC's or Chicago States (perhaps the worst D-1 team I have ever seen).
I also believe the bottom half of the MVC is stronger this year, with the top half comparable to last year.

If I had to predict an outcome, I would predict a tie.

[1972Shocker]

I will say this about the 2008 squad. While they are a little inconsistent they have shown they have the ability to come back from deficits and they always seem to be able to do whatever is necessary to pull out wins.
Hopefully, that will continue.

[SpanglerFan316]

As far as level of competition, we may have had a couple of tougher opponents last year, but this year we did not have any UMKC's or Chicago States (perhaps the worst D-1 team I have ever seen).

Tue, Sep 02, 2008 UMKC 22 - at Kansas City, Mo. 7 p.m. 3 - 0 (W)

http://www.goshockers.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7500&KEY=&SPID=2838&SPSID=61209

[1972Shocker]

As far as level of competition, we may have had a couple of tougher opponents last year, but this year we did not have any UMKC's or Chicago States (perhaps the worst D-1 team I have ever seen).

Tue, Sep 02, 2008 UMKC 22 - at Kansas City, Mo. 7 p.m. 3 - 0 (W)
http://www.goshockers.com/SportSelec...38&SPSID=61209

Old timers disease!

Nevertheless, the quality of this year's schedule vs last year is pretty comparable overall IMHO.

[SpanglerFan316]

As far as level of competition, we may have had a couple of tougher opponents last year, but this year we did not have any UMKC's or Chicago States (perhaps the worst D-1 team I have ever seen).
I also believe the bottom half of the MVC is stronger this year, with the top half comparable to last year.

2007 Schedule included:
Sat, Aug 25 Kansas State Final Pablo #13 Wichita, Kan. 1 - 3 (L)
Sun, Aug 26 Cal Poly Final Pablo #11 Wichita, Kan. 0 - 3 (L)
Thu, Sep 06 Santa Clara Final Pablo #39 at Honolulu, Hawaii 3 - 0 (W)
Fri, Sep 07 Hawaii Final Pablo #23 at Honolulu, Hawaii 2 - 3 (L)

[1972Shocker]

As far as level of competition, we may have had a couple of tougher opponents last year, but this year we did not have any UMKC's or Chicago States (perhaps the worst D-1 team I have ever seen).
I also believe the bottom half of the MVC is stronger this year, with the top half comparable to last year.

2007 Schedule included:
Sat, Aug 25 Kansas State Final Pablo #13 Wichita, Kan. 1 - 3 (L)
Sun, Aug 26 Cal Poly Final Pablo #11 Wichita, Kan. 0 - 3 (L)
Thu, Sep 06 Santa Clara Final Pablo #39 at Honolulu, Hawaii 3 - 0 (W)
Fri, Sep 07 Hawaii Final Pablo #23 at Honolulu, Hawaii 2 - 3 (L)

Point conceded. No doubt we played several teams last year that were tougher than those on this year's schedule.

However, the average RPI of our Non-conference schedule last year was 140.7 vs 146.4 this year. Not a huge difference.

The average RPI of the MVC (excluding WSU) in 2007 was 146.7 and at this point in 2008 it is 126.9.

Overall the average RPI of our opponents in 2007 (counting each MVC opponent twice) was 147.0. Through 24 matches this year the average RPI is 139.9 and will probably end up at around 136.7 at the end of the regular season. (I only used regular season matches in my calculations).

On average our overall schedule this year was pretty comparable (if not slightly tougher) based on RPI's with the MVC being a little tougher from top to bottom then it was last year.

I didn't use the Pablo rankings becuase I don't have access to them. They may tell a different story.