2016 MVC tournament seeding scenarios

[JayJ79]

Going into the final weekend, the Bears, Shockers, Panthers, Salukis, Redbirds and Ramblers have all clinched a spot in the tourney, but some of the seeding will depend on how the remaining matches end up

Here is how those 6 teams currently sit, along with their remaining matches:

MSU 14-2 (@ Evansville, @ SIU)
WSU 13-3 (@ SIU, @ Evansville)
UNI 12-4 (@ ILS, @ INS)
SIU 12-4 (WSU, MSU)
ILS 9-7 (UNI, Drake)
LU 8-9 (@ Bradley)

Illinois State is locked into the #5 seed, and Loyola is locked into the #6 seed (even if they both finish at 9-9, the Redbirds won both head-to-head matches)
And to simplify my projections, I'm just going to assume that both MSU and WSU win at Evansville (not a certainty, but a strong probability)

That leaves 4 crucial matches: WSU @ SIU and UNI @ ILS on Friday, and MSU @ SIU and UNI @ INS on Saturday.
I put together a chart with my calculations for the seeding given all possible results of those matches.

The left column represents the winners of each match: example WUMU = WSU beat SIU, UNI beat ILS, MSU beat SIU, UNI beat INS
The remaining columns are the seeding result of that scenario (with that team's conference win total noted as well).

[JayJ79]

I didn't include my notes on the tiebreaks in each scenario, but if anyone has any particular questions I'd be happy to clarify. (and of course there is always the chance that I miscalculated something)

[WuDrWu]

Many thanks. I logged on this morning with the goal of finding out the scenarios and lo and behold it's already here. Well done.

I'm sure it seems both possible and difficult for the top 4 especially. I'm not certain if WSU wouldn't benefit from playing 3 matches. It might kill them too.

I'd like to stay away from MSU until the final, but that means UNI in the semis at their place. That's not good.

I wondered if there was a way WSU could get the #1 seed...only 1 and that's not going to happen.

[JayJ79]

I wondered if there was a way WSU could get the #1 seed...only 1 and that's not going to happen.

That would require the Salukis to beat the Bears (I'm just not very confident in that happening if Viggars is still out with the hand injury) and UNI would need to lose to both the ISU's (which the Panthers have struggled on that road trip before, but I don't think Illinois State is quite as good currently as they were in recent seasons).

The most interesting scenario IMO, was W-Il-S-U (WSU beating SIU, ILS beating UNI, SIU beating MSU, UNI beating INS). That would leave WSU and MSU tied for 1st, with SIU and UNI tying for 3rd. Both pairs split their head-to-head, which would send it to a "power rating" tiebreaker, in which SIU would slightly edge UNI for #3, but WSU and MSU would have the exact same power rating, which would send it to the third level of tiebreak (set winning % in the head-to-head, which MSU has the advantage due to their 4-set win in Wichita compared to the Shockers' 5-set win in Springfield).

[flyingMoose]

I'll throw the Bracketology stuff in this thread.


Bracketology (11/15)
-20 Conference Tournaments are being played this week (Nov. 17th - Nov. 21st)
-Only the MVC and Big East play next Weekend (Nov. 24-26)
-The remaining 10 conferences have regular-season Champions.
-NCAA Selection Show at 9:00pm EST on Sunday, November 27th.

-This is the 5th-year edition of Trojan Bracketology. Quick history:
2012: All at-larges picked correctly.
2013: All at-larges picked correctly.
2014: Missed one at-large. Picked Virginia Tech to make the tournament, but Michigan State made it in. (In all honesty, the most deserving pick was PACIFIC - but the 2nd place WCC team was left out)
2015 Missed one at-large. Picked Pittsburgh to make the tournament, but Northern Iowa made it. (Convinced this one was a conspiracy)


32 PREDICTED Conference Champions (Auto-Qualifiers)
11/14 RPI number is in parentheses

MVC – Missouri State (47)


(18) Locked At-Large Bids
(None for the Valley)


(31) Bubble Teams competing for (12) spots
-SMU, Dayton, Cleveland State, Miami (OH), Missouri State, and Boise State are all predicted to win their conferences. If any of them do NOT win their conference, they will be on the bubble as an at-large is NOT guaranteed.

Missouri Valley

37 Wichita State (20-7, 13-3)
45 Northern Iowa (21-8, 12-4)
57 Southern Illinois (21-9, 12-4)

There will be a drama-filled MVC tournament next week. Wichita State and Missouri State played for the Championship last year, and they look like the two favorites to me this year. I think Northern Iowa would be the next in line. Southern Illinois can play with anyone, but I can't see them stringing together three straight wins to take the tournament. It certainly could happen though! But I think Illinois State is going to play SIU pretty tough, so they could even make a first round exit.

Southern Illinois has absolutely crucial matches this weekend: Wichita State and Missouri State. Lose both and their at-large chances are shot. Win both, their at-large chances move to pretty decent. Win one, and they still have some ground to make up. If they can win one, and lose in the MVC Championship game, that might be good enough to get them in. This conference is always tough to predict.

Wichita State is the best candidate for an at-large as of now. Mo State and UNI are sort of in the same boat. This is a fun conference to watch for these last two weekends. They are also the only conference that plays volleyball matches ON Thanksgiving Day. (Quarterfinals, which will most likely be Southern Ill/ Illinois State, and Loyola Chicago vs. UNI or Wichita State. Seedings are not for sure just yet).

[JayJ79]

SIU lost one of their best players (setter/hitter Meg Viggars) a few weeks ago, and haven't been the same since, and now they've lost a significant middle, Alex Rosignol, and Coach Ingram says their return is doubtful
So I just don't know if the Salukis will have the same bite that they did earlier. But I could see them playing spoiler this weekend or in the tourney.

Loyola was without their senior OH Morgan Reardon, and their primary setter Delilah Wolf this past weekend. Not sure what their status is for the next two weekends (their lone match this weekend, doesn't have any tournament implications)

And I'm surprised Missouri State's Lily Johnson hasn't had her arm fall off from overuse, given that she's had more attacks than anyone else in Div. I this season (and had the 2nd most last season, and was top-15 the year before that)

[flyingMoose]

SIU lost one of their best players (setter/hitter Meg Viggars) a few weeks ago, and haven't been the same since, and now they've lost a significant middle, Alex Rosignol, and Coach Ingram says their return is doubtful
So I just don't know if the Salukis will have the same bite that they did earlier. But I could see them playing spoiler this weekend or in the tourney.

Loyola was without their senior OH Morgan Reardon, and their primary setter Delilah Wolf this past weekend. Not sure what their status is for the next two weekends (their lone match this weekend, doesn't have any tournament implications)

And I'm surprised Missouri State's Lily Johnson hasn't had her arm fall off from overuse, given that she's had more attacks than anyone else in Div. I this season (and had the 2nd most last season, and was top-15 the year before that)

Thanks for the info. Although the author of the Bracketology keeps up with stuff, he does not do so to the "injury level" that you provide - at least, for mid-majors. So you have to filter his thoughts a little.

[1972Shocker]

@flyingMoose what do you think are the ramifications for the Shockers this weekend?

I'm thinking that if they win both they will be close to a lock for an at-large bid. They lose to SIU and beat Evansville they may need to make the Valley Tournament Championship match. Lose either both matches or somehow beat SIU but lose to Evansville (I suppose that is not impossible) then they may well need to win the Conference Tournament.

[flyingMoose]

@flyingMoose what do you think are the ramifications for the Shockers this weekend?

I'm thinking that if they win both they will be close to a lock for an at-large bid. The lose to SIU and beat Evansville they may need to make the Valley Tournament Championship match. Lose either both matches or somehow beat SIU but lose to Evansville (I suppose that is not impossible) then they may well need to win the Conference Tournament.

I think the only way they get themselves in trouble in losing to SIU and then losing again on Thanksgiving Day. And they still may get an at-large even then.

[JayJ79]

After tonight's matches, my calculations indicate that no matter what happens tommorrow night, Missouri State will end up with the #1 seed and Wichita State will end up with the #2 seed.

UNI will end up as the #3 seed UNLESS the unlikely scenario plays out of UNI losing at Indiana State, SIU beating MSU, and Evansville beating WSU (in which case SIU would edge UNI in power rating).

Illinois State is locked into the #5 seed and Loyola is locked into the #6 seed regardless.

So with the exception of that one scenario, the conference tournament pairings will look like this:

QF 1: #4 SIU vs. #5 Illinois State (Thurs. 5 p.m.)
QF 2: #3 UNI vs. #6 Loyola (Thurs. 7:30 p.m.)

SF 1: #1 MSU vs. SIU/ILS winner (Fri. 5 p.m.)
SF 2: #2 WSU vs. UNI/LU winner (Fri. 7 p.m.)

Championship: semifinal winners (Sat. 4 p.m.)

If the odd scenario plays out, UNI and SIU would switch seeds, and the match times would flip-flop (host team always plays in the late match, according to conference procedures)

[1972Shocker]

If UNI wins and WSU loses wouldn't UNI be the 2 seed by virtue of their sweep of WSU this year? With WSU the 3 seed?

[JayJ79]

If UNI wins and WSU loses wouldn't UNI be the 2 seed by virtue of their sweep of WSU this year? With WSU the 3 seed?

can't believe I overlooked that. haha. got too into calculating the deeper tiebreaks that I forgot the primary. (just started a new job and working on an impending move, so my brain has been elsewhere).

Though I really don't see WSU losing to UE, so that probably won't happen.
(or maybe I was trying to deceive the Shockers into thinking their spot was locked up so that they'd take the night off, allowing the Aces to steal a win, and UNI to sneak into a bye. Because I'm sure the coaches and players sit around reading the boards. haha)