1st Place Shocks Host 2nd Place Missouri State

[LuskingforGuttin]

The latest Bracketology thoughts - current RPI .. team .. (future RPI)

Missouri Valley Conference

32 Wichita State (31)
51 Missouri State (52)
53 Northern Iowa (50)
56 Southern Illinois (58)

The MVC didn't do as well as they wanted to OOC, and the RPI's are suffering. These four teams have also created a logjam at the top of the conference standings. Missouri State and Wichita State are 8-2 in conference, while Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are 8-3 in conference. There is a 6-team tournament, so whoever finishes #1 doesn't matter a whole lot. Northern Iowa is hosting the tournament regardless of the conference standings.

Wichita St. is the only team that looks comfortable to get an at-large bid. I think next behind them, Missouri State might be able to sneak into the discussion. I am sure the Bears weren't expecting Illinois to be the 9th best team in the B1G, but it is what is.

Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are not out of the at-large discussion either. These four teams can all help each other and their at-large situation if they can avoid losing to any of the teams below the top 4. Top-50 victories are crucial for the NCAA committee so there may actually be a large difference if two teams finish 49 and 50 instead of 52 and 53.

Prediction: The MVC gets two bids. Wichita State is one, and the other one could be the conference tournament champion or an at-large bid via Mo St, UNI, and S. ILL. If I had to pick today, it'd be Missouri State as the other team joining Wichita St.

I appreciate you taking the time to analyze this. I use to put together a volleyball bracket most years. Used to subscribe to Rich Kern and was obsessed with PABLO and all that stuff but it is just so involved. I hope we are able to get multiple bids.

[flyingMoose]

I appreciate you taking the time to analyze this.

To be clear, this is not my analysis - it comes from a thread on Volleytalk. If I recall, the fellow has been doing this for about four years now and has only missed on two teams - better than Joe Lunardi does for March Madness.

Yeah, I am enough of a stat head that Pablo and such interests me a lot also. This year, I finally got a sub to RichKern.

And a small caveat: Pablo is a major part of the Future RPI determination. However, Pablo was not updated this week as its "calculator" was out of the country. So the Future RPI calculations could be a bit off.

[1972Shocker]

I think it is way to early to predict NCAA bids for the Valley. A lot can still happen and this is probably the most balanced and deepest the Valley has ever been.

As far as the Shockers are concerned I don't think Lambo has be totally comfortable with this team all year. Of course, that my be true of the mad scientist every year. Still I think he had a pretty good idea of what he wanted to do coming out of the Spring season before all the injuries blew that up. The Shocks certainly need better performances than they gave last Friday against Missouri State. Hopefully, that will prove to be an outlier but who knows.

Lambo will be on the Shocker Sports Report tonight at 9:30 so it might be interesting to tune in and see what he has to say although I don't think he is going share too much of what he might be thinking with UNI on the docket for Friday. Katy Dudzinski will also be on the show.

[flyingMoose]

I think it is way to early to predict NCAA bids for the Valley.

As you (and @JayJ79: earlier) point out, it is too soon to get serious about possible at-large bids for Valley teams, but is it too early to look at possibilities, to speculate, to have some fun with it? I don't think so. But your mileage may vary.

[1972Shocker]

As you (and @JayJ79 earlier) point out, it is too soon to get serious about possible at-large bids for Valley teams, but is it too early to look at possibilities, to speculate, to have some fun with it? I don't think so. But your mileage may vary.

If you enjoy playting with that then by all means do so. I like seeing the current RPI's and the projected potential RPI's. Just pointing out that the projections can be highly fluid at this point in time. I would prefer to see a possible range of projected RPI from a best case (no more Valley losses) to a less than best case (losing to UNI, SIU and ILS for example) to get a feel for how much leeway, if any, the Shocks have and how fluid the projected RPI can be.

How many more losses to think the Shocks can sustatin and still be in the at-large discussion (assuming only losses to UNI, SIU or ILS)?

[flyingMoose]

If you enjoy playing with that then by all means do so. I like seeing the current RPI's and the projected potential RPI's. Just pointing out that the projections can be highly fluid at this point in time. I would prefer to see a possible range of projected RPI from a best case (no more Valley losses) to a less than best case (losing to UNI, SIU and ILS for example) to get a feel for how much leeway, if any, the Shocks have and how fluid the projected RPI can be.

The Futures RPI poster does do a +/- RPI calculation - one more win, one less win than projected.

For the Valley teams of interest:


RPI Rank. (LastW Rank) Team (Overall wins - losses, Conference wins - losses)

31. (26) Wichita State (22-7, 15-3)

50. (50) Northern Iowa (22-9, 13-5)

52. (59) Missouri State (23-9, 14-4)

58. (58) Southern Illinois (22-10, 13-5)


Then the +1 Conference Win, -1 Conference Win RPI Projection.

31. Wichita State (15 Wins-30) (16 Wins-25) (14 Wins-36)

50. Northern Iowa (13 Wins-50) (14 Wins-45) (12 Wins-52)

52. Missouri State (14 Wins-52) (15 Wins-51) (13 Wins-62)

58. Southern Illinois (13 Wins-54) (14 Wins-51) (12 Wins-63)

There is no attempt to specify who the opponents are the +/- win. Or for the "0" win for that matter. I would assume the projected third loss in conference for the Shocks is on the road at Southern Illinois.


Somewhere in the low 40s is the typical RPI cutoff for an at-large bid.

[1972Shocker]

Somewhere in the low 40s is the typical RPI cutoff for an at-large bid.

Thanks. So if this proves to be accurate my assessment is WSU could absorb two more losses (say to UNI and SIU) and still be in the hunt with 4 Valley losses. However, a loss to UNI or SIU and ILS might make things kind of iffy with 4 Valley losses. And a loss to anyone else could or perhaps would be a killer. Would you agree with that?

[Dan]

nm

[flyingMoose]

Thanks. So if this proves to be accurate my assessment is WSU could absorb two more losses (say to UNI and SIU) and still be in the hunt with 4 Valley losses. However, a loss to UNI or SIU and ILS might make things kind of iffy with 4 Valley losses. And a loss to anyone else could or perhaps would be a killer. Would you agree with that?

Yes.

I should not have speculated on the the projected additional loss. The projected records are based on the Pablo ratings and the chances of winning each individual match all "compounded" together. I only roughly try to follow the explanation when it appears on those threads.