2015 NCAA Volleyball Tournament

[flyingMoose]

Here is the link to the Bracketology thread on VT. The fellow has only missed one team in the last three years.

Of course, the Shockers are the AQ from the Valley. His thoughts on other Valley teams and their at-large chances are below.


Bubble Teams
(23 teams competing for the last 13 spots left for NCAA's)

MVC
Missouri State
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa

SAFEST FIVE Bubble Teams

Missouri State - Missouri State has a great RPI and has great victories. Five or six top-50 wins. Yeah, that's a guarantee for an NCAA bid! Congratulations to the Bears!

Southern Illinois - Yup -- Ink in three teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. Southern Illinois is sort of the surprise team for me. They kind of flew under the radar until the last few weeks of the season, and now they've positioned themselves with an RPI in the high 30s/low 40s with 4 top-50 wins. That to me is good enough -- Salukis are in!

FIRST FOUR OUT

Northern Iowa - Northern Iowa is close to getting in but they just don't have enough on their resume to convince me they should get in over the teams around them. One top 25 win and three top-50 wins is not standing out when you look at the other bubble teams. Sure, they have one more top-50 win than some other teams but their RPI is a little out there. Northern Iowa was up 2-0 against Wichita State, and losing the next three sets may have sealed the deal on their season. Northern Iowa is one of the last four out.

His projections are for the Shockers to go to Lawrence (to face Kentucky, no less), the Bears to go to Lincoln and the Salukis to go to Columbia.

The RKPI (the RPI calculated by Rich Kern, a volleyball stats service in part) has the following. It includes the bonus points and penalty points - for "good" wins and "bad" losses, I think.
31 - Shockers
34 - Missouri State
39 - Southern Illinois
53 - Northern Iowa

[IAmWu]

I'd be stoked to see 3 MVC teams get in! Hopefully he hits this on the nose again this year. Do you have any idea on how close he's been on his regional predictions in the past?

[flyingMoose]

Do you have any idea on how close he's been on his regional predictions in the past?

No, and I doubt he is willing to hang his hat on the regional assignments.

[flyingMoose]

Here are the numbers from the RPI Futures I have referenced before: Futures RPI .. team .. RKPI (from earlier)

29 Shockers - 31
35 Missouri State - 34
39 Southern Illinois - 39
44 Northern Iowa - 53

As the poster notes, "some clear differences from RKPI and Fig. Small differences in top 25/50 can compound differences in final RPI rank - particularly around the 40-55 range where the differences are so small." We see this with Northern Iowa. Again, these are adjusted RPI, thus the comment about top 25/50.

[flyingMoose]

I don't get the U. Is someone going to "broadcast live" here?

[flyingMoose]

... the bonus points and penalty points - for "good" wins and "bad" losses, I think.

I found this:

For the Division 1 Volleyball RPI, an adjustment is made based on a team's good wins, bad losses,and out of conference scheduling.

• Double bonus for wins against RPI teams 1-25
• Single bonus for wins against RPI teams 26-50
• Single penalty for losses between 285 and 309
• Double penalty for losses against RPI teams 310 and above
• Double bonus for 50% or more of out-of-conference games against RPI teams 1-75
• Double penalty for 50% or more of out-of-conference games against RPI teams 260 and above

These bonuses are added to the unmodified RPI score of a team, and then teams are reranked using the adjusted RPI value. The adjusted RPI is what is used for consideration for the NCAA tournament by the NCAA committee.

[JayJ79]

I don't get the U. Is someone going to "broadcast live" here?

I'll try to give it a go. at least as far as the bracket (and at the very least, the pods for WSU and any other MVC teams)

[flyingMoose]

I'll try to give it a go. at least as far as the bracket (and at the very least, the pods for WSU and any other MVC teams)

Thanks. The pods with the Valley teams would be plenty good enough. I can always go over to VT and read the complaints about the whole bracket. :)

[JayJ79]

I found this:

For the Division 1 Volleyball RPI, an adjustment is made based on a team's good wins, bad losses,and out of conference scheduling.

• Double bonus for wins against RPI teams 1-25
• Single bonus for wins against RPI teams 26-50
• Single penalty for losses between 285 and 309
• Double penalty for losses against RPI teams 310 and above
• Double bonus for 50% or more of out-of-conference games against RPI teams 1-75
• Double penalty for 50% or more of out-of-conference games against RPI teams 260 and above

These bonuses are added to the unmodified RPI score of a team, and then teams are reranked using the adjusted RPI value. The adjusted RPI is what is used for consideration for the NCAA tournament by the NCAA committee.

kind of curious what your source is on this, though it does make sense.

In any case, using the RKPI (which is generally fairly close to the same as RPI, but more accessible to me as it is included in various tables on RichKern's site), I compiled which of these criteria might apply to the 4 top MVC teams.
UNI's RPI may have snuck into the top 50 if the MVC tournament matches were factored in, but I'm not sure, so I included them as "maybe" in the relevant categories. Also, Dayton was sitting with an RKPI (and RPI) right at 25.

Double bonus for wins against RPI teams 1-25:
WSU(Kentucky) MSU(WKU) SIU(maybe Dayton[25]) UNI(Creighton)

Single bonus for wins against RPI teams 26-50:
WSU(Marquette,MSUx2, maybe UNIx3) MSU(Miami,WSU,SIUx2, maybe UNI) SIU(WSUx2,MSU, maybe UNI) UNI(SIU,MSU)

Single penalty for losses between 285 and 309:
WSU(none) MSU(none) SIU(none) UNI(none)

Double penalty for losses against RPI teams 310+:
WSU(none) MSU(none) SIU(none) UNI(none)

Double bonus for 50% or more of OoC games against RPI teams 1-75:
WSU(no, 6/14) MSU(no 6/13) SIU(no 4/13) UNI(yes, 7/13)

Double penalty for 50% or more of OoC games against RPI teams 260+:
WSU(no, 1/14) MSU(no, 1/13) SIU(no 2/13) UNI(no, 0/13)

[JayJ79]

from the NCAA twitter:

BREAKING: Top 4 seeds in the #NCAAVB tournament (alphabetical order) Minnesota, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Texas

[JayJ79]

seeds: 1 USC, 2 Minn, 3 Texas, 4 Nebraska, 5 Washington, 6 Wisc, 7 Penn State, 8 Stanford, 9 Kansas, 10 TAMU, 11 Fla, 12 Ohio State, 13 ?, 14 ?, 15?, 16 Creighton

[JayJ79]

creighton not hosting, playing at North Carolina

[JayJ79]

Kansas vs. Furman. Missouri St vs. Missouri. all at Kansas

[WuDrWu]

creighton not hosting, playing at North Carolina

Seriously?


WSU NOT going to Kansas. Missouri State, who already was swept by Kansas, gets the at large in Lawrence.

Must be going to Nebraska then. Awesome.

[WuDrWu]

WSU vs KState winner to get the Huskers.