Shocks at Loyola (Friday) and Bradley (Saturday)

[JayJ79]

I think the Shockers have mathematically clinched a top 2 finish, and thus a bye in the quarterfinals of the MVC tournament.
(even if WSU were to lose their remaining 3 and MSU won out, I believe the Shockers would still hold the tiebreak, though I haven't worked out ALL the scenarios, as it will be a moot point unless hell freezes over and Bradley wins tommorrow night)

[1972Shocker]

Shockers eke out a tough road win and I mean tough. They really had to grind on this one. To come back from a 4-9 deficit in the final set on the road says something positive about this team IMO.

[WuDrWu]

Shocks off to hot start against the Braves, leading 15-7 and hitting a blistering .727 on 8-0-11.

[WuDrWu]

Shocks starting fast in each set. Up 2-0 they lead 8-4 in the 3rd.

Indiana State battling SIU 1-1.

[WuDrWu]

25-16, 25-18, 25-10.

Great weekend! First round bye clinched. Beat SIU Friday and we're champs.

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks only had 2 more kills than Bradley (37-35) but out-hit the Braves 0.412 to 0.149 as they out-blocked Bradley 8-0 and had 6 aces to none for Bradley. Bradley had 9 service errors while the Shocks only had 4.

The Shocks only made 4 attack errors in 80 swings.

[WuDrWu]

SIU takes a 2-1 lead against the Trees.

[1972Shocker]

SIU defeats Indiana State 3-1 by scores of 23, (22), 20 and 23 to set up a showdown with the Shocks in Koch Arena next Friday between the 14-2 Shocks and the 13-3 Salukis.

A Shocker win will secure the 2015 regular season MVC Championship. A loss would drop them into a tie with SIU with one match remaining. The Shocks have a much easier task in that final match hosting Evansville while SIU must take on a good MSU team in Springfield.

If SIU beats the Shocks and they finish in a tie SIU would hold the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed the Valley Tournament although as a practical matter there is not much, if any, difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.

The Shocks, of course, would like an outright championship plus a win over SIU might very well lock them into an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament which would be quite valuable since the Valley Tournament this year will be wide open with any of the 6 teams capable of winning it.

Time to step up Shocker fans and especially Shocker students. We need a huge crowd for this match and some payback is warranted for Speedo-gate.

[1972Shocker]

Looks like the field for the Valley tournament is set after tonight's matches.

WSU, SIU, MSU, ILS, UNI and LUC are in. Seeding and matchups still to be determined.

WSU has secured one of the top 2 seeds and a 1st round bye in the Valley Tournament.

MSU still has a shot at tying SIU if they win out and SIU loses to WSU next weekend. Not sure who hold the tiebreaker in that event.

[JayJ79]

MSU still has a shot at tying SIU if they win out and SIU loses to WSU next weekend. Not sure who hold the tiebreaker in that event.

In that scenario, the Bears and Salukis would have identical conference resumes with the exception of MSU having a road win (and a home loss) against the Shockers while SIU would have a home win and a road loss.
That would give Missouri State a 1 point edge in the "power rating" tiebreak, and the Bears would get the #2 seed.

[JayJ79]

the above scenario might be moot, as Loyola is playing well today against MSU, though the Bears seem to be playing better as the match progresses.
currently tied at 1 set a piece, and tied at 12 in the third.

As a UNI fan, I don't know who I should cheer for. haha

[update:] Ramblers take set 3, 28-26 for a two-set-to-one lead
And the Bears force a fifth set with a 25-19 win in the 4th

MSU rides the late momentum to an easy 15-5 fifth set win to take the match.

[flyingMoose]

Standings (of conference tournament qualifiers)

12-2 Shockers
13-3 Southern Illinois
11-5 Missouri State
11-6 Illinois State
10-6 Northern Iowa
8-8 Loyola

[flyingMoose]

The RPI from the NCAA of those having at least a faint chance of an at-large bid:

30 Shockers
42 Southern Illinois
43 Missouri State
52 Northern Iowa

[flyingMoose]

Here is the current projected season-ending RPI of the four at-large possibilities from the RPI Futures thread on Volley Talk using their current Pablo rating: this week..(last week)..team..conference-record

31 (33) Shockers 16-2
40 (43) Southern Illinois 14-4
43 (44) Missouri State 13-5
54 (54) Northern Iowa 12-6

Here is the +1/-1 conference-wins list.

31. Wichita State (16 Wins-31) (-) (15 Wins-34)
40. Southern Illinois (14 Wins-39) (15 Wins-36) (13 Wins-49)
43. Missouri State (13 Wins-39) (-) (12 Wins-50)
54. Northern Iowa (12 Wins-52) (-) (11 Wins-58)

There is still the possibility for three Valley teams to make the NCAA Tournament. A lot will depend on the Valley Tournament itself. The Bracketology dude should have his thoughts on Volley Talk in the next few days.

Also, Northern Iowa sneaking into the Top Fifty would be huge for the Shockers with their two wins over the Panthers.

Oh, and yes, it is not possible to achieve those conference records for the top three given this weekend's schedule. Don't ask me. Rounding, maybe?

[flyingMoose]

The MVC-relevant info from the Bracketology thread on Volley Talk.


Bracketology (11/16)
20 conference tournaments will be played this week.
Big East and Missouri Valley Conference have tournaments next week.
NCAA Selection show on Sunday, November 29th.

32 Projected Conference Champions (Auto-Qualifiers)

MVC – Wichita State (30)


Locked At-Large Bids (19)
These teams have a 95% chance or better of making the NCAA tournament. A few on this list still could even end up conference champions and be switched with a team above ^.

[No Valley teams in this section of the post.]


Bubble Teams
(About 30 teams competing for the last 13 spots left for NCAA's)
*I am predicting that this team wins their conference tournament, but if they do not win, they will be on the bubble.

MVC
Wichita State*
Missouri State
Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa
Illinois State


BEST FIVE BUBBLE TEAMS

[No Valley teams again.]


THE "SAFE(R)" FOUR

Missouri State- Missouri State started off the season hot, cooled off a little bit, but now looks to finish strong. I think they should be able to get into the NCAA's, but I wouldn't be too comfortable. They still need to have a good showing in the MVC tournament if they don't win it. Missouri Valley teams are going to be clawing at each other for one of the last few spots in the NCAA tournament.


LAST FOUR IN

Southern Illinois - I didn't think two MVC teams were going to get at-large berths this year, but it is shaping up like it's going to happen. Southern Illinois kind of flied under the radar this year (At least to me) before coming relevant in the bubble discussion. The MVC RPI has helped them, but you can't take away the wins they've picked up. I think SIU is in but it's really going to depend on how the MVC tournament bracket plays out and who beats who in that tournament. All they can do for themselves is keep winning. If they get to the MVC Finals, I think they are surely a NCAA team.


Tournament Resumes by Team
---------------------------------------

MVC

Wichita State
Overall Record: 23-7
Conference Record: 14-2
Non-Conference Record: 9-5
Strength of Schedule Rank: 46
RPI: 30
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-5
Record against 51-100 RPI: 4-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 11-1
Significant Wins: 15 Kentucky, 34 Marquette, 43 Missouri State
Significant Losses: 112 IUPUI
Last 10 games: 5-1
Remaining: @siu, @evansville, MVC Semis, MVC Champ

Missouri State
Overall Record: 20-9
Conference Record: 11-5
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 56
RPI: 43
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-6
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 9-1
Significant Wins: 19 Western Kentucky, 35 Miami(FL), 30 Wichita State, 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: 111 Loyola (IL)
Last 10 games: 5-0
Remaining: Evansville, SIU, MVC Qtrs, MVC Semis, MVC Champ

Southern Illinois
Overall Record: 22-7
Conference Record: 11-3
Non-Conference Record: 9-4
Strength of Schedule Rank: 90
RPI: 42
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-3
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-2
Record against 101-200 RPI: 10-2
Significant Wins: 30 Wichita State, 29 Dayton, 43 Missouri State, 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: 118 UCF, 111 Loyola (IL)
Last 10 games: 5-0
Remaining: @wich St, @missouri St, MVC Qtrs, MVC Semis, MVC Champ

Illinois State
Overall Record: 21-9
Conference Record: 11-6
Non-Conference Record: 10-3
Strength of Schedule Rank: 106
RPI: 64
Record against 1-50 RPI: 2-7
Record against 51-100 RPI: 2-1
Record against 101-200 RPI: 9-1
Significant Wins: 43 Missouri State, 42 Southern Illinois, 54 Long Beach State, 52 Northern Iowa
Significant Losses: 111 Loyola (IL)
Last 10 games: 4-2
Remaining: Indiana State, MVC Qtrs, MVC Semis, MVC Champ

Northern Iowa
Overall Record:16-13
Conference Record: 10-6
Non-Conference Record: 6-7
Strength of Schedule Rank: 20
RPI: 52
Record against 1-50 RPI: 3-10
Record against 51-100 RPI: 3-1
Record against 101-200 RPI 7-1
Significant Wins: 20 Creighton, 43 Missouri State, 42 Southern Illinois
Significant Losses: 140 Indiana State, 231 Illinois-Chicago
Last 10 games: 3-2
Remaining: Bradley, Loyola, MVC Qtrs, MVC Semis, MVC Champ