Shockers at Indiana State

[flyingMoose]

The projected season-ending RPI of the six likely-to-make-the-Valley-tournament teams from the RPI Futures thread on Volley Talk based on their current Pablo rating: this week..(last week)..team..conference-record

32 (35) Shockers 16-2
48 (42) Missouri State 12-6
57 (62) Southern Illinois 12-6
58 (61) Northern Iowa 11-7
59 (67) Illinois State 12-6
71 (60) Loyola 12-6

Missouri State is going backward in their case for an at-large bid.

The OP of the Volley Talk thread has also published a +1/-1 - the projected RPI with one more or one less conference win. There are several posts on the thread about the importance of the Valley tournament this year, and how several teams have a chance to move their RPI into at-large consideration. However I agree with @JayJ79, the Shockers seem to have, at a minimum, an at-large bid in hand, and everyone else has a lot of work to do.

32. Wichita State (16 Wins-30) (17 Wins-26) (15 Wins-35)
48. Missouri State (12 Wins-48) (13 Wins-41) (11 Wins-55)
57. Southern Illinois (12 Wins-55) (13 Wins-48) (11 Wins-60)
58. Northern Iowa (11 Wins-59) (12 Wins-51) (10 Wins-67)
59. Illinois State (12 Wins-60) (13 Wins-55) (11 Wins-69)
71. Loyola-Chicago (12 Wins-69) (13 Wins-61) (11 Wins-85)

Again, all RPI rankings are projected based on current Pablo values.

[flyingMoose]

There are several posts on the thread about the importance of the Valley tournament this year, and how several teams have a chance to move their RPI into at-large consideration.

For the insanely curious, here is the thread.

[1972Shocker]

JayJ79[/URL], the Shockers seem to have, at a minimum, an at-large bid in hand, and everyone else has a lot of work to do.

I must respectfully disagree that the Shocks have an at-large bid in hand. With road matches at MSU, SIU and Loyola and home matches with UNI and SIU still in front of them I really don't see the Shocks having anything in hand at this point other than perhaps a spot in the Valley tournament.

[JayJ79]

I never said WSU had an at-large "in hand". They are just the only MVC team with a decent shot at getting an at-large if they manage to avoid too many upsets. MSU could get into the bubble range if they ran the table, but even then it would be iffy.

[flyingMoose]

I must respectfully disagree that the Shocks have an at-large bid in hand.

I never said WSU had an at-large "in hand".

Okay, I will solely own the "in hand" comment in its entirety. I just believe that barring a total collapse (say, four losses in those five key matches), the Shockers RPI will be sufficient to get them an at-large bid.

[flyingMoose]

Again in the FWIW category, the Bracketology thread has been updated on Volley Talk. This guy is 95/96 on the at-large bids over the last three years, which is better than Joe Lunardi. Highlights are below.


Bracketology (10/26)

This is the last week I'll do this in this format. Next week I will focus more solely on bubble teams, seeded teams, team profiles, and ignore going conference by conference.

If I had to put my best guess forward today by who the 64 teams are in the tournament, this is what I'd predict would happen. RPI numbers are in Parentheses front of team name.

MVC
(38) Wichita State and (45) Missouri State look to be contenders for an at-large bid. (58) Northern Iowa has a chance as well, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Looking at the conference its pretty tough to predict what's going to happen. Wichita State has been the most consistent team, losing only one match, but there are a number of teams who are fighting for the #2/#3 spot in the MVC. Strangely, Missouri State is actually the sixth-ranked team right now in the MVC and would be the last spot in the tournament. They looked to be an NCAA team early in the season but it is not so clear now. This conference is really going to come down to the wire, if the cards fell right three bids could be possible.

Prediction:
(45) Missouri State wins the MVC Tournament.
Wichita State receives an at-large bid.
(2 bids from the MVC)

[1972Shocker]

Okay, I will solely own the "in hand" comment in its entirety. I just believe that barring a total collapse (say, four losses in those five key matches), the Shockers RPI will be sufficient to get them an at-large bid.

Agreed. One more regular season loss and they should be in good shape (maybe even a lock). Two more regular season losses and they probably need to get to the Valley Tournament championship game. 3 more regular season losses and they probably would need to win the Valley Tournament. That assumes any losses would be to teams that finish in the top half of the Valley.

[boyshocker]

For the insanely curious, here is the thread.

Great to see talk of three teams. Another thread listed the big 12 with four teams in, great to see because they seem to always have 5-6 and only Texas advances past the first weekend. OU is sucking and KSU looks good at times but need to beat one of the big girls..KU,UT, ISU, BU. to get a chance to make the dance.