Shocks vs Illinois State - Saturdday - Buy 1, Get 1 Free

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks take on defending Valley Champs Illinois State who went through the league undefeated last year on Saturday at 7:00 pm.

Tickets are Buy 1, Get 1 Free and the 1st 2,000 fans get a free T-Shirt.

Missouri State swept Illinois State tonight in Springfield so the Redbirds won't be repeating an undefeated run through the Valley but I expect the Redbirds will give the Shocks a good test.

[flyingMoose]

Scores

Shockers 3-1 Illinois State(25), 23, 23, 22

Missouri State 3-2 Indiana State
(21), 17, 12, (15), 6

Northern Iowa 3-2 Evansville
10, (23), (23), 22, 9

Drake 0-3 Southern Illinois
20, 16, 18

[1972Shocker]

Shocks go to 2-0 to start Valley paly but it was anything but easy. 25-27, 25-23, 25-23, 25-22.

I thought the key factors in the match were the Shocks blocking (12 blocks to only 4 for Illinois State) and Dani Mostroms secondary serving (9 assists).

Katie Reilly had 17 kills while hitting a robust 0.452 and she had 8 block assists. Mikaela Raudsepp added a season high 16 kills but also had 7 attack errors and the Shocks had only 2 aces vs 10 service errors. At times the Shockers were very good and at other times not so good. When they eliminate the unforced errors they can be pretty good. However, they are still pretty inconsistent in that regard.

A very nice crowd of 3,519 tonight and it was never very certain that the Shocks were going to win this match until the last point was scored.

Big showdown next Friday with the Shocks hosting Missouri State.

[WuDrWu]

Boy I thought that was a well played match on both sides. A bunch of amazing points. Raudsepp was big. Hard to figure out how MSU pretty much handled ISU with ease but went 5 with Indiana State.

[1972Shocker]

I thought both Indiana State and Illinois State were very competitive teams and that will be a very tough road trip later in the year. While MSU had to go 5 to defeat Indiana State they pretty much crushed them in the 3 sets that they won.

At this point I think MSU is probably playing the best Volleyball in the Valley. But the Shocks can change that perception next Friday.

[RoyalShock]

That was an intense match! Maybe moreso than the 5-setter vs. Kentucky.

[ShockdaWorld]

The wife and I took our daughter and her friend to the game. We all had a great time. I agree with Doc. There were some great points played. The number of service errors were a bit concerning though, as (at least in my volleyball uneducated mind) they seemed to be momentum killers on several occasions.

[flyingMoose]

Of Shocker opponents, the following are ranked:

7 Illinois
10 Hawai'i
21 Kentucky

Kentucky got a big win on the road at then 5 Florida.

[flyingMoose]

I believe the RPI from the NCAA does not make its first appearance of the year until next week. An unofficial RPI site has the following for Valley schools with an RPI less than 100:

31 Missouri State
63 Northern Iowa
65 Southern Illinois
66 Loyola
74 Shockers

The Pablo-based projected RPI thread for Week 5 has yet to appear on Volley Talk.

[ShockdaWorld]

Looks like the win over Kentucky wasn't enough to make up for some of the losses according to them huh?

[WuDrWu]

New Mexico State is a quality loss for sure. IUPUI wasn't that bad all things considered, but certainly not good. No harm in losing to Hawaii & Illinois.

Texas A&M has been all over the map. What I bet is hurting us are the dead weights. ACU is 0 fer so far....SDSU is like 1-17. That's 1-33 combined. That'll kill anyone's RPI.

Doesn't help that Oregon State has barely won a match either.

[flyingMoose]

The Pablo-based projected RPI thread for Week 5 has yet to appear on Volley Talk.

That thread is now up. RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating. It should be 100% this-year by now.

Valley teams of interest along with Pablo-based projected conference records:

30 - Missouri State (14-4)
34 - Shockers (15-3)
56- Southern Illinois (11-7)
74 - Northern Iowa (11-7)
76 - Illinois State (11-7)

[The Mad Hatter]

That thread is now up. RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the win probabilities for the remaining games on the schedule using the current Pablo rating. It should be 100% this-year by now.

Valley teams of interest along with Pablo-based projected conference records:

30 - Missouri State (14-4)
34 - Shockers (15-3)
56- Southern Illinois (11-7)
74 - Northern Iowa (11-7)
76 - Illinois State (11-7)

Why would Pablo project us as having a better record than MSU when they have a higher ranking and we play the same schedule?

[flyingMoose]

Why would Pablo project us as having a better record than MSU when they have a higher ranking and we play the same schedule?

And the Bears' Strength of Schedule (I assume this is also projected) is at 30, while the Shocks SoS is at 35 according to the thread. (But the raw values could be quite close. See rounding below.) So we could have a slightly better Pablo (@JayJ79: would know) resulting in a better record, but the Bears played a slightly better out-of-conference schedule, giving them a better RPI.

Ultimately, my best guess is that this is rounding - we are projected for 14.54 wins and they are projected for 14.48 wins, for example. The thread author cites rounding in answer to some queries of his wins totals.

Note that Pablo cares how many points you score in a match - winning a match 3-2 where the total points are fairly close is not as good as winning a 3-0 blowout. In calculating RPI, a win is a win is a win.

Actually ultimately, I don't know. :)

So I close this post in a cloud of confusion. :) :)

[flyingMoose]

Ultimately, my best guess is that this is rounding - we are projected for 14.54 wins and they are projected for 14.48 wins, for example. The thread author cites rounding in answer to some queries of his wins totals.

A further clarification (I hope.) If the Pablo values are "this close" together, the match is a tossup. If the values are "this far" apart, the chances of the better-valued team winning are, say 85%. I have seen that difference/percentage scale before, but I am not sure I could find it easily on Volley Talk. At any rate, this is why there are fractional values in the calculated future records.