2024 AAC Conference Tournament

[flyingMoose]

From Critter's Pa post on another thread ...


Friday the 22nd: ("Home team" first)

ECU vs FAU 11:00 AM
Rice vs North Texas 1:30 PM
USF vs UAB 5:00 PM
WSU vs Tulsa 7:30 PM

[flyingMoose]

From Bracketology on VT regarding the AAC Tournament and its impact (really about USF's chances for an at-large bid) -


What do you think of South Florida? I think they can make a case (I need to look at the AAC/Bracket/RPI implications).



Their losses are ghastly. I don't see how they're in contention as an at-large (i.e., taking another loss). Also the loss to Georgia means they probably don't have common opponents over all those SEC teams despite the Florida win.



For those who aren't aware, Conferences that give byes or limit their pools sometimes allow their teams to make big RPI jumps. But this is heavily dependent on RPI matchups, which can vary vastly by conference/seed/etc..

So in South Florida's case, which I mentioned earlier - if they ended up getting a good W/L team in the QF and Semifinals, that [a] loss to Rice in the Finals doesn't hurt that much and it still means they end up with an RPI that is better than where they started before the conference tournament

But they don't. South Florida gets UAB (11-16) in the QFs and then the SFs could be either Tulsa (18-10) or Wichita State (15-13). The combination of that with another loss isn't putting them through.

[Critter's Pa]

The AAC tournament schedule

Semifinals Saturday the 23rd:

Winner ECU/FAU vs winner Rice/North Texas - 11:00am
Winner USF/UAB vs winner WSU/Tulsa - 2:00 PM

Finals are Sunday the 24th at 12:00 PM

RPIs for 11/17 (11/11) -- #seed in AAC tourney:

40 Rice (33) --#2
54 USF (57) --#1
82 WSU (55) --#4
100 ECU (104) --#3
105 Tulsa (86) --#5
142 FAU (132) --#6
166 Temple (165)
216 Tulane (214)
223 UAB (227) --#8
230 UTSA (253)
234 N TX (261) --#7
245 Memphis (241)
300 Charlotte (299)

Those losses to N Texas and UTSA really hurt.

Non-con RPIs (note: many of these teams end their conference seasons Thanksgiving weekend):

196 Kennesaw State
90 Indiana
11 Kansas
49 Arkansas
179 Little Rock
9 Arizona State
78 LBSU
1 Nebraska
72 Cal Poly
63 N Colorado
89 Omaha

RPIs of note:

7 SMU Frosty- Has played in all 96 sets, started all 27 matches. Hit .380 (170 39 345). Has 104 total blocks. 58 aces (!!!) and 88 service errors (!!! x2). Glad she is having a nice season. Only 1 match with double digit kills (10). Got 5 aces in wins against Nebraska and Pittsburg (4 and 7 service errors respectively).
75 K-State
104 Houston
148 Cincinnati
213 UCF*

[flyingMoose]

RPIs of note:

7 SMU Frosty- Has played in all 96 sets, started all 27 matches. Hit .380 (170 39 345). Has 104 total blocks. 58 aces (!!!) and 88 service errors (!!! x2). Glad she is having a nice season. Only 1 match with double digit kills (10). Got 5 aces in wins against Nebraska and Pittsburg (4 and 7 service errors respectively).
75 K-State
104 Houston
148 Cincinnati
213 UCF not USF

[flyingMoose]

RPI Futures-

35 Rice
52 USF

which suggests that Rice is in the NCAAs, and USF has to win the AAC Tournament.


Pablo has USF as 64% over Rice.

[flyingMoose]

VT Bracketology comments-

AAC
Rice's loss to North Texas made me think they are out in terms of an at-large, but, looking at it, they still have some RPI love. UT-Arlington, should they win the WAC, may be Rice's only Top 50 win.

South Florida has a better shot IMO, despite the worse RPI, because of the wins. But South Florida doesn't really have much breathing room and needs to make the Finals.

AAC's best hopes are those 2 make it to the Finals and the committee gives the loser an at-large bid. If either lose in the Semis, they are probably toast. Wichita State is hosting the tournament. They could get hot and win it all or lose to Tulsa in the opening round.


I think the comment about the Shockers is spot-on.

If I read the comments of Bracketology Guy correctly, he will post his likely bracket later this week. SMU (Frosty) will get a Top 16 seed.

[Critter's Pa]

USF is 35-9 against UAB. Their last loss to UAB was in 2003, before that it was 1990. They are 22-1 since 1995 (they didn't play 91-94). They played twice last year and once this year. USF is 1-2 and UAB is 3-1 on neutral courts. USF is probably going to win this one, they swept UAB 3-0 last Sunday.

Rice may have the most difficult match-up in the first round. Rice is 13-7 against North Texas. N TX has won 3 of the last 4 against Rice, all three wins were at home (swept last year, split this year). Is there any way we can lower the roof on CKA, or maybe the scoreboard, for the Rice/N TX match? Just to give N TX that "at home" feeling. Rice is 1-2 and N TX is 2-2 on neutral courts. Out of all the opening matches, I think this one has the best chance to be an upset.

ECU is 3-2 against FAU. FAU won their first meeting in 2013. ECU has won 3 of 4 since FAU joined the AAC. Both ECU and FAU are 2-1 on neutral courts. I'm guessing ECU is going to win this one.

WSU is 43-14 vs Tulsa. We are on a 12 match winning streak including a post season win in CKA during the NIVC last year. I think the winning streak will continue.

-----------------------------------

WSU has played the most sets in the AAC- 67 conference, 115 total. Number of sets played by tourney teams:
Tulsa- 59 con, 102 total

USF- 60 con, 101 total
UAB- 55 con, 96 total

Rice- 58 con, 90 total
N TX- 62 con, 101 total

ECU- 60 con, 94 total
FAU- 58 con, 106 total

We have played 13 more sets than Tulsa, that is at least 3 more matches. The shockers have played 25 more sets than Rice, which could be half a conference season worth of matches. Could the wear and tear of a playing a lot of sets be the reason for poor play toward the end of the year? Maybe. Wonder if Brooklyn will come back a little more refreshed. I hope so. Playing the tourney at home should help a little, I would think.