Shocker VB at Rice

[flyingMoose]

The 9-3 Shockers hit the road this weekend, beginning with a match against Rice on Friday at 6 pm. The Owls are currently 10-2 in the AAC, tied for first with South Florida. As noted elsewhere, the #1 OH for Rice is out with a hernia and their DS/L is in concussion protocol. Maybe one or both are available this weekend, perhaps neither. We will only know at game time.

[flyingMoose]

Bracketology Stuff from VT

AAC

Rice, Wichita State, and South Florida are in the at-large hunt. 8-team conference tournament, hosted by Wichita State. It looks like only one team will have an unfavorable RPI matchup in the first round of the tournament. All in all - I could see the conference tournament pulling in a second team.

Rice plays Wichita State this week (Rice won the first round). South Florida beat Rice and Wichita State already. South Florida also has H2H wins against Florida and Ohio State. However, South Florida has some sketchy losses: UCSB, Florida Atlantic, and 256 UTSA


RPI-KPI Comparison

Teams that KPI ranks BETTER than RPI:

No AAC teams

Teams that KPI ranks WORSE than RPI:

Wichita State (-32) .. Easily the largest difference of teams that might make the Tournament.
...
Rice (-7)

Me: KPI is a number that the Committee may look at? I think so. If used, it has only been within the last couple of years. KPI=Key Performance Indicators

[Critter's Pa]

Hope The Shockers can win these last 4 matches in 3, maybe 4, sets to keep the legs fresh for the conference tournament.

WSU has played more conference sets than any other AAC team- 50 sets for an average of 4.17 sets/match. Tulane (48) is at 4.0 sets/match, everyone else is less than 4. Temple is the lowest at 37 sets in AAC play. Their only 4 set match was a 3-1 loss to the Shockers. The conference average is 44 sets which is 2 three set matches less than WSU. That is a lot more in game jumping, and when you have players on jump counts, it has to have an effect on how you practice. We are at 98 sets (also the most of any AAC team) for the season which is 4.08 sets/match.

Last year, in the first 12 games of conference play we were at 44 sets. Last year we played 19 conference matches (72 sets 3.8 sets/match), instead of 16 this year, probably because we didn't have to make time for a conference tournament.

In the 12 conference matches this year, WSU has played 4 five set matches (2-2), 6 four set matches (5-1), and 2 three set matches (2-0).
In 12 non-con matches this year, WSU played 4 five set matches (3-1), 4 four set matches (2-2), and 4 three set matches (0-4).

With the Shockers playing Rice and ECU playing USF this weekend, there could be a clear conference leader or it could be a four way tie for first, although USF will hold several tie breakers.

[Critter's Pa]

Rice, Wichita State, and South Florida are in the at-large hunt. 8-team conference tournament, hosted by Wichita State. It looks like only one team will have an unfavorable RPI matchup in the first round of the tournament. All in all - I could see the conference tournament pulling in a second team.

Rice plays Wichita State this week (Rice won the first round). South Florida beat Rice and Wichita State already. South Florida also has H2H wins against Florida and Ohio State. However, South Florida has some sketchy losses: UCSB, Florida Atlantic, and 256 UTSA

We can't afford to lose any of the last four matches. A loss to Rice will hurt the least, but losing to Tulane (193) or North Texas (256*) or UTSA (257*) will turn our RPI into an RIP.

*I wrote down North Texas as having an RPI of 256 and UTSA was 257, maybe I got them backwards, not that it matters, because losing to a team with that low of an RPI is gonna hurt a lot.

[flyingMoose]

Wednesday Match

Memphis 1-3 UAB
18, (18), 21, 25

[WuDrWu]

Best case weekend for WSU that is at least reasonable:


Friday:

USF over Charlotte
Tulsa over ECU
Temple over Tulane
WSU over Rice
North Texas over FAU
Memphis over UTSA


Sunday:

FAU over UTSA
ECU over USF
Temple over North Texas
Rice over UAB
WSU over Tulane
Charlotte over Tulsa (reach)


Standings after that scenario:

USF 11-3
Rice 11-3
WSU 11-3
ECU 10-4
Tulsa 8-6
FAU 7-7
Tulane 6-8
North Texas 6-8
Memphis 6-8
UAB 5-9
Temple 5-9
Charlotte 3-11
UTSA 2-12

[1972Shocker]

Volleyball Preview: Rice

WICHITA STATE (14-10, 9-3 American)

Friday, Nov. 8 (6:00 p.m. CT) at Rice (15-6, 10-2 American)
Houston, Texas (Tudor Fieldhouse)
Live Stats // Watch

SCOUTING THE OWLS:

• Like the Shockers, the Owls enter the matchup on Friday as winners of four straight to check in at 15-6 overall and 10-2 in conference play. Rice is currently tied with South Florida atop the AAC standings, but the Bulls hold the tiebreaker by virtue of a sweep on October 16.
• The Owls are in their second season in The American after a strong tradition of success in Conference USA. Rice reached the NCAA tournament five consecutive seasons prior to 2023, which finished 18-11 (12-7). The 18 wins were the fewest in a season for Rice since the 2013 club went 11-19.
• Like the Shockers, Rice played a challenging non-conference schedule that included three ranked teams (Baylor, Creighton, TCU).
• Junior middle blocker Lademi Ogunlana is hitting .395 (best in the AAC) and earned a spot on the AAC Honorable Mention list this past week.
• Freshman setter Savannah Skopal is on pace to earn the top freshman honor in the conference. Skopal was named AAC setter of the week on Monday and directs an offense that leads the circuit in kills per set (13.89).
• Head coach Genny Volpe is responsible for turning Rice into a perennial power. The 21st-year head coach has led the Owls to eight NCAA tournament appearances; Rice had never reached the tournament prior to Volpe's arrival. Her 409-215 career record is good for a .655 winning percentage.

As reported by flyingMoose in the OP the #1 OH (Cindy Tchouangwa) for Rice is out with a hernia and their DS/L (Gaby Mansfield) is in concussion protocol. Maybe one or both are available this weekend, perhaps neither. We will only know at game time. The loss of Tchoangwa is pretty impactful. The Owls don't lose much at libero since Nia McCardell can step into the Libero role on pretty much equal footing with Mansfield. The question who fills McCardell's role on the back row.

Even with these injuries, I see the Shocks as the underdog in this one especially on the road. I hope we get a pleasant surprise.

[flyingMoose]

... the Shocks as the underdog ...

Ack!! The Prognostications!

32% and 1-3. These will factor in the missing Owls only as reflected in the recent results for Rice - that is, very little.

[WuDrWu]

I hope the improved back row play continues. It's been a joy to watch the last couple of weeks.

[WuDrWu]

With just 4 matches remaining in conference, and taking into account everyone else's schedule, anything other than a 4-0 finish for WSU almost is certain to result in the 4 seed come post season tournament time. And even at 13-3 we could still be the 4th seed. IF USF is the 1 seed, then that's probably not the worst thing for us.

[1972Shocker]

I hope the improved back row play continues. It's been a joy to watch the last couple of weeks.

For the season we have 4 players who handle 89% of the Shocks service reception duties, Annalie, Katie, Reagan and Emerson.

Their reception %s and serving stats in all matches are:

Emerson: Reception Errors (39/566) = 6.89%; Reception % = 93.11%................Service Errors/Service Aces = 32/17 = 1.88
Annalie: Reception Errors (24/377) = 6.37%; Reception % = 93.63%..................Service Errors/Service Aces = 46/16 = 2.88
Reagan: Reception Errors (19/359) = 5.29%; Reception % = 94.71%..................Service Errors/Service Aces = 21/24 = 0.88
Katie: Reception Errors (16/345) = 4.64%; Reception % = 95.36%......................Service Errors/Service Aces = 13/15 = 0.87

Their reception %s and serving stats in AAC matches are:

Emerson: Reception Errors (16/249) = 6.43%; Reception % = 93.57%...............Service Errors/Service Aces = 15/5 = 3.00
Annalie: Reception Errors (12/205) = 5.85%; Reception % = 94.15%..................Service Errors/Service Aces = 27/10 = 2.70
Reagan: Reception Errors (9/188) = 4.79%; Reception % = 95.21%...................Service Errors/Service Aces = 10/12 = 0.88
Katie: Reception Errors (7/175) = 4.00%; Reception % = 96.00%.......................Service Errors/Service Aces = 5/8 = 0.63

So across the board our serve reception in AAC play has improved. Perhaps not to surprising considering the strength of the non-con schedule. Clearly opponents are targeting Emerson whenever she is on the back row and that is not a surprise. What the stats can't measure are the quality of the passing on the 95% of serves that are handled. I am pretty sure Lambo tracks that but it doesn't show up in the publicly available stat arrays.

I still contend that our littles are hurt to at least a small extent by the need to try to cover for Emerson as much as possible. Again that is a qualitative assessment and Lambo knows whether or not that is happening.

In any case, these number certainly support giving Katie a shot at the libero. I hope it continues to pay dividends as you do.

I guess, we just have to live with Emerson. Overall Alyssa has 3 reception errors in 78 chances for a reception % of 96.15%. Whether or not that would hold up against the kind of volume Emerson has dealt with is questionable. And since Alyssa hasn't served this year I am assuming that is not a strength at this point.

[1972Shocker]

RH: Right Move to the Left - WSU Enters Stretch Run With Momentum

Brooklyn Leggett created, in the mind of Wichita State coach Chris Lamb, a statistical paper worthy of a scrapbook in Sunday's 3-1 win against Tulsa.

"Pretty great," he said. "I hope she always holds onto this box score."

Lamb is counting on Leggett, and the Shockers, to produce more of those type of box scores as it enters the season's final weeks.

Wichita State enters the weekend on a four-match win streak which has allowed them to stay near the top of the AAC. It is tied with ECU in third place behind Rice and USF. WSU's sweep of Tulsa – boosted by Leggett's strong weekend as an attacker on the left – is encouraging for Lamb. WSU has four regular-season matches remaining before the AAC Championship begins Nov. 22 at Koch Arena.

WSU's scoring pop has improved in AAC play and Lamb wants even more. Defeating Tulsa – a sound defensive team with excellent back-row play – and averaging 19 points in the two matches is a good sign. WSU's 78.5 points in Sunday's 3-1 win is more than it scored in five five-set matches and more than it scored in eight other four-set matches.

In AAC matches, the Shockers are hitting .240, up from .188 against a brutal non-conference schedule.

"They've been the defensive team in our league, and we've been frustrated by digging" he said. "In two matches, we scored over 19 points a game. The Shockers need to get that number up, and that number has been climbing over the last few weeks."

Leggett recorded a career-high 22 kills, with an attack efficiency of .341, on Sunday against Tulsa. She had 11 kills on Friday vs. the Hurricane, her first on the left after primarily hitting on the right side.

"Tulsa is literally one of the better digging teams in our league and they couldn't stop her," Lamb said. "Jumping high and hitting hard goes a long way. She's always had that. If she can do that against Tulsa, we like her chances elsewhere in the league."

Leggett's outburst on the left gives Lamb hope his offense can continue to improve heading into the AAC Championship.

"I know she's going to get a kill," Stout said. "It definitely is very relieving knowing that I have a left on the other side who can really put the ball on the floor."

[flyingMoose]

Today's Bracketology comment - stating the obvious, but still ...


Important Matches for Friday 11/8

Wichita State at Rice - Very important for the at-large race. Wichita State definitely needs it more.

[flyingMoose]

The StatBroadcast roster for this match does not have either of the injured Owls.

[Critter's Pa]

if you want to follow along with the stats, try here:

https://riceowls.com/sidearmstats/wvball/media