The MVC Season

[SpanglerFan316]

The preseason MVC poll http://www.mvc-sports.com/media/2012-13/volleyball/PDFs/2012 VB Preseason Poll Release.pdf had the following prediction:
1. UNI (now 5-4)
2. MSU (now 5-6)
3. WSU (now 6-3)
4. CU (now 8-1)
5. ILSU (now 6-4)
6. SIU (now 8-1)
7. BU (now 6-3)
8. INSU (now 2-8)
9. UE (now 3-7)
10. DU (now 0-9)

I think WSU has had one of the two toughest preseason, playing (at the time) #14 Tennessee and #24 Colorado State plus tough teams in BYU, Auburn, New Mexico State, etc. Some people might say UNI had a tougher preseason, playing Iowa State, Michigan, USC, Purdue, etc. UNI has not looked good while WSU almost beat BYU, did beat CSU and took Tennessee to five sets. WSU is young and will (I hope) improve as the season progresses.

It looks like the choice of MSU in second is a joke but who knows? CU beat Wisconsin and Tulsa but both look weaker than expected. My current guess as to the finish is:
1. WSU
2. CU or UNI
3. UNI or CU
4. SIU
5. MSU
6.-10. who cares? :distress:

[WuDrWu]

Fair enough. I do think this season will be more competitive than recent ones.

I'll add a couple of things...winning always trumps losing and UNI is used to winning, especially against the Valley. Is there a Panther player that's even seen UNI lose to a Valley school? But I concede the Panters are not the same team without Bre.

I believe WSU is good enough to beat all the Valley schools on any given night (not the case last year). I also believe they can lose to 4 Valley schools on any given night.

There is no shame losing @ Purdue, @ USC and @ Iowa State. Michigan is a little different story. BUT they were all on the road. Our losses were at home. And Michigan is better than NMSU imho.

Certainly Missouri State is under performing so far, but I've seen enough of their talent to know they have enough to win in this conference.

Creighton is the (mild) surprise. Megan Bober is the early leader (with Feekin) for POY. But the thing about CU is their hitters are young. McNary was a Fr All Conference last season, Browning is a 6'4" So. MB who has improved a ton, Melanie Jereb is a Fr. 6'2" OH that has started every match and is a 6 rotation player. Add in Bober and Sr. MB Thorsen and this is a BIG and talented team that's only going to get better.

WSU better find a way to get CU next weekend before they get rolling. I fear they're going to be a handful as the season wears on. Already the Jays don't make a lot of mistakes and they win the serve and receive game. That's a good base from which to work...and they are huge. Like basketball, in volleyball bigger IS better.

There is a huge separation after the top 4 in the Valley.

I'd rank the top 4 in performance so far as:

1. Creighton
2. WSU
3. UNI
4. MSU

Prediction? I'll pass. I think it's going to be ultra competitive and a point here or there is going to decide who comes out on top. The team that eventually wins is likely NOT to be the team that consistently falls behind to start the match. We might want to address that if we're going to consider challenging for the top spot.

One last thing I think is for certain. As competitive as the Valley may be 1-4, the conference is about 1-20 against ranked teams. There isn't going to be anyone hosting (unless CU all but runs the table in conference) and I wouldn't want to be #3 or #4 in the pecking order at the end of the season in Springfield.

[WuDrWu]

SIU does seem to be improved but they've played a terrible schedule. Their best win is a decent one against St. Louis and Jackie Church's younger sister Anna, but otherwise that schedule is awful.

SIU isn't finishing ahead of MSU.

[SpanglerFan316]

SIU does seem to be improved but they've played a terrible schedule. Their best win is a decent one against St. Louis and Jackie Church's younger sister Anna, but otherwise that schedule is awful.

SIU isn't finishing ahead of MSU.

MSU lost their senior OH to injury and I think this has and will continue to affect them adversely. As for SIU, I agree that their schedule is weak but sometimes teams get used to winning and keep doing it in the conference. (Of course, this usually does not occur.) Anyway, I'm not sold on MSU and can't rank them any higher than #4 (and continue to pick them #5, behind SIU). We can agree to disagree.

[1972Shocker]

My thoughts are pretty much in line with @WuDrWu. I said before the season that this year would be more of the same with UNI, WSU, MSU and Creighton being the contenders and I believe all are potentially NCAA teams, although I think one of them will be left out.

UNI has to be the favorite until proven otherwise. Someone has to beat UNI. UNI rarely will beat themselves.

This year Creighton and MSU have the advantage at the setter position with Megan Bober (a big setter along the lines of Chesley Feekin) and Carly Thomas. However, Chesley should continue to improve steadily as the year progresses and is not that far behind those two at this point.

MSU was hurt by a season-ending injury to Karen Rivatto but the Lady Bears always have a boatload of good athletes and they will not be an easy out.

This may be the most parity the MVC has had among its top 4 contenders in a long-time.

Right now I will go with: 1. UNI, 2. Creighton, 3. WSU, 4. MSU. I think Creighton may have the best shot at dethroning UNI, but WSU and probably MSU will be right there too.

We play UNI, CU and MSU on the road in the 1st half of the season and then get them at home over a 3 week span late in the season. The travel partner situation also helps the Shocks and MSU. With Drake and Bradley being Creighton's and Nothern Iowa's respective travel partners the Lady Shocks and Lady Bears can pretty much focus on UNI and CU in there pre-match preparations. UNI and CU (or any of the other MVC teams) do not have that luxury.

As far as SIU is concerned I simply don't see them being a big factor. You can see my post on the SMU Tournament thread for my reasons why.

My bottom line for the Lady Shocks is that I have been pleased with their progress so far this year and I think they have and will benefit from the tough preseason schedule. However, there is no clear-cut favorite to win the MVC regular season this year and the MVC Tournament could turn out to be an all-out war with one of the top 4 teams likely to be left out of the NCAA Tournament. It will be very important for the top 4 not to stumble against any of the other teams in the MVC like the Shocks did against Evansville last year.

I can see the Shocks finishing anywhere from 1st to 4th. It should be a very entertaining ride in finding out the final answer to this quiz.

[SpanglerFan316]

Look at this VT thread about ISU: http://volleytalk.proboards.com/inde...y&thread=45749

UNI lost to ISU in four sets. ISU just lost to Syracuse and, to quote a comment in the referenced thread, "I'm surprised ISU is struggling so much this season. I'm not really sure what is going on."

I have a lot of trouble putting UNI or MSU ahead of WSU at this point in time. CU is a mystery but their win over Wisconsin looks weaker than WSU's win over CSU. Frankly, I think both of you are crazy (and, if you are right, I will claim that "crazy" meant "crazy like a fox" ;)).

I saw a WSU team that can badly lose a set (e.g. BYU, Tennessee) and bounce back. For a WSU team, this squad is young with three true freshmen getting some playing time. If WSU continues to improve and becomes consistent, I think the Shocks win the conference. If they play inconsistently, then who knows?

[1972Shocker]

If WSU continues to improve and becomes consistent, I think the Shocks win the conference. If they play inconsistently, then who knows?

I agree with that, but those are pretty big IFs. I am giving UNI a lot of credit for simply knowing how to win, being used to winning, and probably expecting to win in the MVC. 60-0 in MVC regular season and tournament play over the past 3 years. I acknowledge Bre Payton was a special player and big loss for UNI and I can't imgaine them being anyhwere near as tough without her. But they will be tough enough. (BTW, it always intrigued me that Bre Payton started her career as a walk-on).

But nothing would totally surprise me this season. I can see any of the top 4 winning either the MVC regular season and/or the MVC tournament, although maybe MSU winning the regular season would be a mild surprise.

[JayJ79]

The travel partner situation also helps the Shocks and MSU. With Drake and Bradley being Creighton's and Nothern Iowa's respective travel partners the Lady Shocks and Lady Bears can pretty much focus on UNI and CU in there pre-match preparations. UNI and CU (or any of the other MVC teams) do not have that luxury.

And that is one heck of an advantage to have. Forgive the homerism, but I think that makes UNI's run all the more impressive in a way.

[WuDrWu]

And that is one heck of an advantage to have. Forgive the homerism, but I think that makes UNI's run all the more impressive in a way.

UNI doesn't need any superlatives to drive home the magnitude of their unbeaten streak. They've won because of talent, preparation, execution and heart.

And there have been other NCAA quality teams to go through, and they've done just that. Hopefully for the rest of the league, it's about to be put in the books.

[SpanglerFan316]

No votes for WSU in the 9/10/12 poll after going 3-0 last week? http://www.avca.org/divisions/divisi...oll-9-10-12di/

[flyingMoose]

No votes for WSU in the 9/10/12 poll after going 3-0 last week? http://www.avca.org/divisions/divisi...oll-9-10-12di/

We were fortunate to escape SMU. I could believe no votes.

@JayJ79 will have to tell us if our Pablo or RKPI moved much. The NCAA's RPI has not published yet this year, although it may start this week.

[SpanglerFan316]

It doesn't really matter except (possibly) for recruiting and Chris Lamb seems fairly good at recruiting. Being ranked at the end of November is more useful than being ranked now. You did notice "Northern Iowa 40; ... Creighton 7", I assume.

[SpanglerFan316]

Steve Shondell has Creighton at #24 and no votes for UNI or WSU.
Mike Jordan has Creighton at #25 and no votes for UNI or WSU.
Jerritt Elliott has Creighton at #26 and no votes for UNI or WSU.
Lyndsey Oates has UNI at #20, Creighton at #26 and no votes for WSU.

Kirsten Bernthal-Booth has UNI at #24 and WSU at #26.

http://www.avca.org/includes/media/docs/Division-I-Poll-Voters-Top-25.xlsx

[WuDrWu]

Pablo (the first ranking of the year, and frankly a little early for it, similar to RPI, or RKPI in volleyball speak) has WSU at 44. For references, Creighton is 14, BYU is 5, Tennessee 23, OU 29, Colorado State 32, SIU 37, Auburn 50, UNI 53, NMSU 56, ISU 99, NDSU 105, Northern Illinois 109, MSU 124, SMU 197 & Texas State 146.

OU will help the non-con SOS. INSU (254) D+ (236) UE (215) will not.

I suspect we'll end up with 17 Top 100 matches if we reach the Valley finals (and lose). I figure if we can be 11-6 in those matches, we should be in good shape. Today, we stand 2-3.

[WuDrWu]

I like having the coaches votes listed. Rich Heller, of the Cal Bears, quite obviously smokes a lot of dope on the left coast. His Bears have lost to San Francisco, Baylor and San Diego State. He also places PAC 10 schools in the 2, 3, 4, 5 & 7 positions. While I don't discount that the PAC10 is strong (they are) his obvious bias has to be called out. There is nothing his team has accomplished to deserve being ranked ahead of BYU.