Shockers at ECU

[flyingMoose]

Monday Morning bracket (which includes all of Sunday's results)

First Four Out: Houston, Cincinnati, and two others

Houston is VERY interesting - right now they are 1-0 vs. T25 teams and 4-1 vs. T50 teams. But they have some horrible losses and they could beat UCF and knock them out of the T25. That might be enough to get them in, not sure. They did really poor OOC scheduling that will likely end up costing them a bid.

Cincinnati probably has no chance, but, including them as they are in RPI distance with some potential T50 wins.


This is from a talented bracketologist, but the one with less experience. The other dude will probably post something later. Or maybe they alternate weeks posting their bracket. I haven't paid that much attention to what they do.

I will note that their brackets are guesses about what the Committee will do based on previous Committees, not what the Committee should do - mostly.

And here are the Tuesday morning thoughts of the more experienced bracketologist.

First 8 Out (% chance of getting an at-large bid):
one at 50%
Houston - 40%
one at 15%
Cincinnati - 10% and others at 10% or less


He also posted this last night after running 1000 Pablo-based simulations for RPI calculations.

Houston needs to sweep this week - which means they have to beat UCF. There is a 33% chance of this happening - and their average RPI would be 45.4 ranging from 42 to 51. They would have wins over Mississippi State and UCF (2X). They split and I think they are done. I will put them at 33% of a bid.