Shockers at Cincinnati

[flyingMoose]

The Shockers begin their final road trip of the AAC schedule with a match at Cincinnati on Friday at 530 pm CT. The Bearcats are 10-6 in the conference, tied with SMU for fourth and a game behind the Shocks who are 11-5. Cincinnati was a 3-2 winner in the earlier match between the two teams.


This match has implications for an at-large bid for the AAC. Following is an exchange between two very knowledgeable VT bracketologists. These are very technical remarks about unadjusted and adjusted (T50 wins and scheduling bonus) RPI. I don't pretend to understand it at all.

Poster A: Cincinnati / Wichita State are both bubble T50 in adjusted and unadjusted. This has implications for UCF and Houston.

Cincinnati and Wichita State play each other. Does it really matter who wins — or do you see one being more beneficial? Maybe the easier schedule in the other 3 matches to win out? My guess is Cincinnati to have more potential.

Poster B: Cincinnati has a better chance of winning out. However, Wichita State has a much better chance of getting to 50 in unadjusted RPI.

Cincinnati - they are in line for bonus points (they are a lock for the scheduling bonus). As such, their Adjusted RPI will be 3-6 spots better than their unadjusted. If they win out - they may make T50 in adjusted, but I don't think they can make T50 in unadjusted.

Wichita State - they are the opposite. They have no chance for the scheduling bonus. Cincinnati would be their only chance for a bonus - and just beating them will eliminate that chance. Their unadjusted RPI will be 3-6 better than their adjusted. Wichita wins out - they will easily be T50 in unadjusted and probably T50 in adjusted. If they lose to Cincy - they still have a shot at T50 in unadjusted.

If I was Houston - I would pull for Wichita State to win out. Take the T50 bonus points and have a good chance of getting 2 T50 wins (adjusted). This appears to be the safest path. Probably not getting T50 bonus points if Cincy wins out - but would have the guaranteed T50 (adjusted) wins.


Pablo has Cincinnati with a 66% chance to win the match.

[1972Shocker]

Big opportunity for the Shocks this weekend but as flyingMoose notes the Shocks are a decided underdog against Cincinnati and I don't think Sunday's match at ECU is a slam dunk for the Shocks either irrespective of ECU's 5-11 record in AAC play. Although the Shocks will be favored against ECU. I do think the Shocks will need to play better this weekend than they did in the final 3 sets against Tulsa and their win over Temple last week.

[flyingMoose]

This one can't wait.

Wednesday Match

USF 0-3 UCF
15, 16, 16

McKenna Melville is 21-0-35 for .600. She had half of the kills for UCF. I think we have the Offensive Player of the Week. She already has five such awards.

[1972Shocker]

This one can't wait.

Wednesday Match

USF 0-3 UCF
15, 16, 16

McKenna Melville is 21-0-35 for .600. She had half of the kills for UCF. I think we have the Offensive Player of the Week. She already has five such awards.

I think we have the offensive player of the year. although that has probably been locked in for a while now.

She will be back as a Super Senior next year if she chooses and I assume she will. After that UCF will probably move on to the Big 12 and get to break in a team sans Melville in that league.

[flyingMoose]

I think we have the offensive player of the year. although that has probably been locked in for a while now.

Like the first day of practice.

[flyingMoose]

Set One

Starters for the Shockers are Brylee, Lily, Kayce, Natalie, that Morgan, the other Morgan, and Bryn.

At 2-2, Sophia rotates in.

Ugh! 5-5 and three of the Bearcat points are on service errors. And another to make it 7-6.

13-15 at the Media TO. Two points is the biggest lead by each team. Shocks hitting .316 v . 188 but are -4 in the service ace/error stat.

14-17 is the first three-point lead by either team.

16-17 on kills by MorganS and Kayce. TO by Cincinnati. Two kills by five different Shocks at this point.

Oops. 16-20 and a Shocker TO. That is the first 3-0 scoring run by either team.

18-20 and then 18-22. TO by the Shocks.

19-22 and Kailin in for Brylee who is hitting negative. Serving and staying in.

20-25. Set One goes to the Bearcats.


.222 v .235. Natalie and Sophia have three kills each. Brylee is 2-3-15 for -.067.

[SubGod22]

Maybe we should be setting Kelly a little less. She's not having much success against their double

[flyingMoose]

Set Two

Starters this set are Brylee, Kayce, Natalie, Morgan I, Sophia, Morgan II, and Lily.

The first three-point lead in this set comes at 1-4.

Four in a row by the Shocks including two kills by Brylee makes it 7-6. TO Cincinnati.

Bearcats return the favor. 7-10.

Back-to-back bad sets by Kayce, three for the set, and it is 9-14.

Four straight for the Shocks using three Bearcat errors and finally a tie at 15-15.

That doesn't last long. 16-19 and a delay in the LiveStats. Yes, a challenge and overrule. 17-18.

The overrule is part of a 5-0 run (two kills and three attack errors) to 20-18. TO by Cincinnati.

Another attack error and a service ace by Bryn moves the score to 22-18.

Kills by Brylee and Kayce close out the set.

25-21.


For the match, .264 v .173. Sophia is 7-1-9 for .667, and Natalie is 6-1-11 for .455.

[flyingMoose]

Set Three

Same starting rotation as Set Two.

A 3-0 start for the Shocks and the first tie at 6-6. Then 8-6 moves to 8-9.

[My supper break]

Just in time for 23-19 and a TO by the Bearcats. Earlier, the score went from 8-9 to 12-9 and the Shockers have maintained a lead.

24-20 becomes 24-23 before a kill by Morgan Weber.

25-23.


.310 v . 202 for the match. Sophia is 11-2-18 for .500, Natalie is 9-1-16 for .500, and Brylee is 9-5-30 for .167.

[flyingMoose]

Set Four

Same starting rotation.

Sideoutville.

11-13 is the first two-point lead for either team.

12-15 at the Media TO.

Kailin subbed for Brylee in their somewhere. To play back row?

15-19 and a TO for the Shocks.

[The Mad Hatter]

If it wasn't for the service game, we would be dominating. We are out-hitting Cincy .267 to .185 on equal swings (6 more kills for WSU and 5 fewer errors), but we have 7 service errors to 4 aces and Cincy has 2 service errors to 8 aces.

[SubGod22]

Our libero has not been good

[flyingMoose]

Another ball-handling error by Kayce. 17-21. Since I am not watching, she could easily be chasing down bad passes, making a ball-handling error more likely. Or this referee may call it tighter than others.

19-24 and the last Shocker TO.

20-24. Sklyar to serve and Sophie in for blocking.

21-25 and we go to a fifth set.


.252 v .185 with the nine-point swing in serve/receive that has been noted.

Brylee with fourteen kills, Sophia with thirteen, and Natalie with eleven.

[flyingMoose]

Set Five

Back to the starting rotation from Set One.

1-3 and a Shocker TO.

1-6 and another TO.

2-7 before Sophia rotates in.

6-15 and 2-3. Brutal fifth set.


.213 v .212. Brylee is 15-8-49 for .143, Sophia is 14-4-27 for .370, and Natalie is 12-3-26 for .346.

Those with ESPN+ will have to chime in about this one, especially the fifth set.


The Shocks will have to shake this one off quickly. ECU took Tulsa to five sets.

[SubGod22]

Absolutely embarrassingly bad in the 5th