Shockers at UCF

[flyingMoose]

The Shockers conclude their road trip to Florida with a match against UCF on Sunday at noon CT.

UCF are 10-1 in the conference, having lost only seven sets in the eleven matches. Their loss was at home to Houston by 3-2. The Shocks are the only other team to take the Knights to five sets. UCF are the only AAC team that is sure to make the NCAA Tournament, either as the AQ or with an at-large bid.

Shocker article (again) and UCF article

[1972Shocker]

This was in the match notes linked to by flyingMoose but towards the bottom of fairly long set of notes. Thought I would post the scouting report on UCF separately:

SCOUTING UCF:

• The Knights have won three consecutive American championships, and have a 49-3 recording in conference play since 2018, with two losses to Cincinnati during the 2019 regular season and a five-set defeat this year at home against Houston.
• Facing a challenging early-season schedule, UCF began the season just 2-4. They lost just once more in non-conference play, a thrilling five-set defeat at the hands of Georgia.
• Since the loss to Houston, the Knights have dropped only one set (vs. Tulane, 10/10). UCF has swept four consecutive opponents entering the weekend.
• The Knights rank first or second in the AAC in all but one major statistical category (digs per set, 8th).
• Preseason player of the year McKenna Melville leads the nation with 455.0 total points, ranking fourth in the county with 398 total kills.
• Nerissa Moravec leads the conference and checks in 17th nationally with 1.38 blocks per set.

Not hard to see the degree of difficulty the Shockers will have extedning their win streak today. This would definitely be a big upset if the Shocks can somehow pull it off. I think it's possivle, vut not probable that will happen. I give the Shocks a 20% chance of pulling the upset.

[WuDrWu]

20%? Wow, you have a lot more confidence than I do, and I'm a well known sunshine pumper. I give us a 5% chance at best. I wonder if flyingMoose has the Pablo percentages.

I watched most of the Minnesota Nebraska match last night ( and Wisconsin Nebraska earlier this week). There's a lot of talent out there. Those teams have 10 McKenna Melvilles....each.

[1972Shocker]

20%? Wow, you have a lot more confidence than I do, and I'm a well known sunshine pumper. I give us a 5% chance at best. I wonder if flyingMoose has the Pablo percentages.

You may be right but I'm giving the Shocks some credit for taking UCF to 5 sets in Wichita. OTOH, UCF may want to show that was a fluke and they seem to playing quite well at this time.

[WuDrWu]

Currently 14-6, I think our season will likely be defined on what happens in the next four matches.

After today, 6 of the last 8 are at the Chuck, with only road matches at ECU and UC (both will be tough no doubt). I don't know what flyingMoose shows as needed to make the tourney, but I would hope 21-8 would at least have us on the bubble, if not better.

[flyingMoose]

Pablo gives the Shocks about a 15% chance to win today. They were a 77% chance to win against USF.

Early every week, there are a couple of dudes who do their bracketology thing, largely based on RPI Futures. So far, UCF is the only likely AAC team in the Tournament. I will probably continue to post their thoughts in the VT thread.

[flyingMoose]

Set One

Brylee, Lily, Kayce, Kailiin, Sophie, Natalie, and MorganS continue to be the starters.

Here some, but dinner will interrupt at some point.

0-4, 1-8. I think they intend to put us in our place. McKenna Melville already has five kills.

4-15 at the media timeout. Seven kills for Melville. Brylee is 0-3-7.

Brylee finally has a kill. 6-19.

Natalie's first kill makes it 10-21.

11-25.

-0.029 v 370.

Kailin has three kills and Melville has seven. Also one block v four.

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks are playing tight and timid. The passing has been horrendous. UCF has been oustanding. Melville on her way to double figure kills in this set.

The only good thing about the 11-25 pounding the Shocks took in Set 1 is that is counts the same as 23-25 loss. But psychologically the Shockers have to somehow try to by back from being shell shocked.

The UCF assault continues in Set 2. 15-6 at the media timeout. UCF dominating the Shockers in every conceivable way. UCF cruises 25-14 in set 2.

The Shocker passing has been horrendous although even if the Shock were passing okay I don't think it would make a difference in the outcome of the match. Maybe just make the set scores slightly closer. Won't be any comeback from a deficit in this one.

[flyingMoose]

Set Two

[Dinner break]

14-25.

For the match, .033 v .520. Ouch!!

Melville is up to thirteen kills, while Natalie leads the Shockers with four kills.

[flyingMoose]

Set Three

MorganW starts rather than Kailin and Sophia is an early sub.

5-7. Previous sets were 5-16 and 5-12. Oops, 5-11 before the next Shocker point.

8-15 at the media timeout.

15-22 and a Shocker TO. Just felt like typing something. At least we appear to be in the same gym for some of this set.

17-25 and 0-3.


.087 v .487.

Natalie was 8-0-11 for .727, and there is nothing else to add. Brylee hit negative. (Okay, so I added something.)

Melville was 18-0-27 for .667!! That is pretty outrageous.

Two blocks v ten.

[1972Shocker]

The scores of 25-11, 25-14 and 25-17 pretty accuately reflects the gap in talent and skill between the 2 teams. The Shocks were never in it.

The only player I give a passing grade to was Natalie who hit 8-0-11 = .727. Otherwise, the Shocks played scared, intimidated and tight and were totally overwhelmed.

UCF totally took Brylee out of the match as she hit 4-10-22 = -.273. The Shocks were outblocked 10-2.

So the Shocks 8 match win streak comes to an end which was pretty much expected but let's hope that's all that was broken today.

UCF has the look a team than can do some damage in the NCAA Tournament. Today the Shockers looked like a team that has no business to be in the NCAA Touranment. Today UCF was far superior at every position on the court and in every conceivable phase of the game.

[flyingMoose]

Other Sunday Matches

Cincinnati 3-2 Memphis
16, (19), (21), 20, 12

ECU 1-3 SMU
(20), 18, 19, 20

Tulsa 3-1 USF
(16), 21, 20, 22

Temple 2-3 Tulane
16, (22), 21, (20), 7


Standings of interest are now-

11-1 UCF
9-3 Houston
8-4 Shockers
8-4 Cincinnati
8-4 SMU

[1972Shocker]

Normally I would watch the replay to double check my initial obsercations on the match. In this case, I don't think I need to or really want to.

Regarding the other Sunday matches those went as expected in terms of the winners but Cincinnati's 5-set win over Memphis and Tulane's 5 set win over Tulane were suprisingly tough.

Shocks now in a 3-way tie for 3rd with Cincinnati and SMU. On the bright side Cincinnati, SMU and everyone else in the AAC except Tulsa still has a date with UCF on their schedule.

[flyingMoose]

Changed my mind. Let's put the VT stuff in the Sunday Match thread to give the info context.

RPI Futures with the current RPI in () are now:

24 - UCF (27)
53 - Houston (62)
54 - Cincinnati (49)
61 - Shockers (53)

The chances of having an RPI of 45 or better:

100% - UCF
21% - Houston
20% - Cincinnati
7% - Shockers


Later this week, the Bracketology guys will probably chime in.

[flyingMoose]

Musings from VT-


If Mississippi State overachieves, Houston could have two T25 wins. They have a chance as a bubble team, but that loss to ECU really, really hurt.

Cincinnati might have to beat UCF to have any chance. Bowling Green and Notre Dame wins probably won't propel them to a tournament bid even if they win the other matches.

Wichita is practically out of the running. SMU had an outside chance by overachieving as well, but, losing to Memphis today, they're pretty much out, too.


SMU 1-3 Memphis
(22), 20, 22, 28