2019 AAC Volleyball Tournament

[flyingMoose]

The first official RPIs have been released.

As expected, if you are not UCF (28) or Cincinnati (31), you are going to have to win the tournament to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Next in line are Tulsa (65) and Tulane (69).

[flyingMoose]

RPIs from 14 October:

28 - Cincinnati
29 - UCF

then

58 - Tulsa
67 - SMU
etc.

[1972Shocker]

Lambo has said he thought Tulane could be an NCAA tournament but they just did not schedule tough enough to make that happen. Although this weekend Tulane really did not look like an NCAA worthy team to me.

[flyingMoose]

The teams making the AAC Tournament already seem apparent: Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. After the top two teams in each division, there is a protocol for the last two teams. However, it does not appear that any of the bottom four teams in the East can get one of the last two spots.

[flyingMoose]

RPIs from October 28:

27 - UCF
33 - Cincinnati

The only other team with a real chance to get an at-large appears to be

54 - SMU

with a faint chance for

63 - Tulane.


The Bracketology dude on VT has his first guess at possible qualifiers from the AAC.

American (AAC) - UCF and Cincinnati should be in the tournament, and it looks like one more is very possible. Two more is probable, but probably unlikely. SMU is hoping Dayton finishes T50, which is a lot better than Tulane's hope who is pushing for Ohio State to finish T50. SMU has the RPI edge over Tulane - who has a really poor strength of schedule. But Tulane so far has the better win with a win over Cincinnati. Tulsa was also looking to be in on the discussion, and still is, but they probably have to win out at this point. They probably killed their chances with a loss at UConn.

AAC (Champion: UCF) At-Large: Cincinnati, Southern Methodist

LAST 4 IN: Wright State, Southern Methodist, Arizona State, Michigan
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST 4 OUT: Pepperdine, Green Bay, South Carolina, Tulane

[flyingMoose]

Here is the latest Bracketology from 11 November.


AAC (Champion: Cincinnati) At-Large: UCF, Southern Methodist


LAST 4 IN: Villanova, Pepperdine, Southern Methodist, Illinois
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIRST 4 OUT: South Carolina, Tulane, Ohio State, Coastal Carolina


AAC - Cincinnati could have a shot at a seed if they win out --- but the odds of that happening are not good. UCF had a nice schedule set up to give them a chance at a seed, but losing to Cincinnati twice threw that out the window. As far as at-larges concern, I think SMU has a chance and Tulane looked to be out of it but Ohio State & Cincinnati helped Tulane get back in on the discussion. Tulane and SMU play this week - with an advantage going to the winner. It will be best for both of them to win their other match this week. SMU's resume is a little shaky with just a win over Dayton to sell. Tulane has the better quality wins. The only thing we know for sure is that Cincinnati is going to be the #1 seed in the AAC Tournament and UCF will be the #3 seed, but the AAC-West teams will determine their seeds this week.


SMU is predicted to finish with an RPI of 49, Tulane with 65.

[flyingMoose]

Friday

M1: #3 UCF (Pablo 89%) v #6 Tulsa

M2: #4 Houston v #5 Tulane (70%)


Saturday

M3: #2 SMU v M1 winner

M4: #1 Cincinnati v M2 winner


Sunday

M3 winner v M4 winner

[flyingMoose]

Here is the latest Bracketology from 18 November.


AAC (Champion: Cincinnati) At-Large: UCF, Southern Methodist


Last 4 in: Pepperdine, Southern Methodist, Illinois, Ohio State
First 4 out: Coastal Carolina, Dayton, Arizona State, South Carolina


No in-depth discussion of the conferences this week, but Tulane is no longer a nearby contender.

SMU is projected to finish with an RPI of 51. Their RPI as I write is 54.

[flyingMoose]

Friday

UCF 3-1 Tulsa
18, 10, (21), 18

Tulane 3-2 Houston
18, (16), (22), 17, 6
The Cougars in yet another five-setter, but this one they lose.

[flyingMoose]

Semis

UCF 3-0 SMU
17, 13, 23

Cincinnati 3-0 Tulane
20, 17, 19

No surprises here.

[flyingMoose]

Finals

UCF 3-2 Cincinnati
(21), 16, 24, (24), 10

In the third set, UCF was down 18-24 and ran off eight consecutive points to take the set. For the match, they hit .301 v .234 and had 16 blocks to two.

UCF gets the auto-bid to the NCAAs for the AAC, and Cincinnati will get an at-large-bid. SMU is on the bubble for a second at-large bid for the conference.

[flyingMoose]

I'll stick this in here.

For conference games only, the Pablo favorite % and the W-L for those matches:

50-60% - 11-8
60-70% - 17-9
70-80% - 15-5
80-90% - 16-2
90+% - 16-0

Small sample, but it does what it is advertised to do.

[WuDrWu]

That's really amazingly good.

Pretty quality final for the American. As good as we were in year 1 of the American, both Cincy and UCF might be better and could make some noise in the tournament.

[flyingMoose]

Here is the latest Bracketology from 25 November.


AAC - UCF*|| At-Large: Cincinnati

Last 4 in: ...
First 4 out: ...
Next 4 out: Southern Methodist, ...