Shocks Host Houston (Friday @ 7:00) and SMU (Sunday @ 1:00)

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks take on the only teams to sweep a weekend series from the Shocks in their short history of AAC play. The Shocks lost 5-set road matches a 3 weekends ago to SMU (9-14, 6-7), after leading 2-1, and to Houston (15-13, 2-11), after leading 2-1. These losses may very well have ended the Shockers chances for NCAA play, The Shockers have since lost to Cincinnati for a 2nd time this year and were not very competitive after blowing a 19-23 lead in the 1st set.

While I think the Shocks chances of an NCAA at-large bid are between extremely small and non-existent perhaps they still have a shot at a bid to the NIVC. However, that even seems like a bit of a long shot at this point. They probably need to win out to make even that happen and that may not even be enough.

It is really hard to say exactly where this team is at this point. I think they do hope to still get Emma Wright back (maybe as early as this weekend) although how effective she can be is hard to say. I guess there is also still a question on how healthy Megan Taflinger is as well.

Lambo also has some decisions to make on whether he wants to play the 6-2 or the 5-1. Against Cincy and ECU last weekend the Shocks played the 6-2 in sets 1 and 2 in both matches and then switched to the 5-1 with Kora setting in the other 3 sets played. The hitting % were quite a bit better in the 5-1.

Regardless of what happens with post-season play it would be nice to see the shocks close out this very challenging season on a high note.

Shocker Match Notes and Links

[flyingMoose]

Pablo stuff:

78% chance of winning v Houston

70% chance of winning v SMU

[1972Shocker]

With all due respect to Pablo those numbers seem to overstate the Shockers chances especially against 2 teams that have beat the Shocks 3 week ago and as result believe they can win these matches.

[flyingMoose]

I agree.

The Pablo values reflect the entire season, are not weighted for recent games, do not reflect any mid-season injuries, do not indicate margins of victory, other things we might add. However, it does do what it is intended to do well - of all the matches this weekend in the 70% range, Pablo will correctly predict very close to 70% of the winners. The Shockers just may not be one of them.

[flyingMoose]

Going into the weekend matches, the Shockers have an RPI of 46 and Tulsa sits at 49.

[1972Shocker]

The problem is that is we don't finish tied or ahead of Tulsa (and Tulane) in the AAC standings it may not make any difference if we have a better RPI than them. I doubt that either the NCAA ( a very remote possibility at best) or the NIVC would pick the Shocks over those two teams based on RPI. I am not evern sure the NIVC rules allow that.

The Shocks currently trail both Tulsa and Tulane with 5 to play. Even if the Shocks win out they would need some upsets to even move into a tie with Tulane or Tulsa.

If the Shocks win out Tulsa will have one loss. Tulsa plays the same schedule as the Shocks so they have SMU and Houston this week at home and UConn and Temple on the road next week. Best chances of a 2nd loss is SMU tonight.

Tulane is home against UConn and Temple this week, on the road at Cincy and ECU next week and finishes at home against Memphis on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. A loss against Cincy is a good possiblity although Tulane did beat the Bearcats in 4 in New Orleans. However, their other 4 matches are against the bottom end of the league.

Whether or not the Shockers could somehow wrangle an at-large bid to the NIVC is hard to say. That assumes they even have any at-large openings.

[flyingMoose]

Yes - league standings? RPI? Which has priority with the Committee? Does the Committee reward the program that goes out and tries to schedule tough? Does it say this team must be more deserving despite RPI because they finished ahead in the league?

The Bracketology Guy on VT has a good feel for those kind of questions from having watched the Committee over the last five years or so, learning what their preferences tend to be. It will be interesting to see his view early next week.

Of course, beating Tulsa is a must to think about being in the Tournament - and even then, that may well knock Tulsa out of the Top 50 and give the Shockers no wins in that category.

Tulane currently has an RPI of 69 and has no chance of making the Tournament.

Obviously, my thoughts are strictly about the Tournament with no thought about the NVIC.

[flyingMoose]

Other Friday matches

Cincinnati 2-3 UCF
(25) 25 (16) 17 11
31-15-102!! for .157 for Jordan Thompson

SMU 3-2 Tulsa
It is looking like the AAC is a two-bid conference.

Temple 1-3 Tulane
The Green Wave has now won 10 conference matches in a row including a defeat of Cincinnati.

ECU 2-3 USF

UConn 3-2 Memphis

[1972Shocker]

With the 19-25, 22-25, 25-22 and 23-25 loss to Houston the discussion on post-season play has become moot.

Sometimes you win ugly. Tonight probably qualified as losing ugly. Lose as a team certainly seems applicable as well.

The outcome was as it should have been. The Shocks simply did not deserve to win tonight.

Hopefully the ladies will keep their chins up and finish off the year with a few more wins.

[ShockTalk]

You are correct. It was not pretty. I believe we gave up long runs in all 4 sets.

[1972Shocker]

Good observation. In Set 1 a 5 point Houston run turned a 14-16 deficit into a 19-16 lead. This run featured 3 Houston stuff blocks and 2 setting errors by Kora. Houston closed out the set winning 5 of the final 6 points starting with a Shocker service error.

Perhaps the most deflating of the Houston runs was the 7 point run they had to closed out set 2 turning an 18-22 deficit into a 25-22 win. That run included 4 Shocker attack errors, 2 of which were Houston stuff blocks.

The Ladies actually bounced back from that to take set 3 although even in that set Houston rallied from a 14-19 deficit to to tie the set at 21-21 before the Shocks won 4 of the final 5 points (including 3 attack errors by Houston, 1 a solo block by Tabitha to close out the set).

In set 4 another 7 point run by Houston, which included 2 setting errors by Kora and 2 Houston stuff blocks, turned a 7-11 deficit into a 14-11 leas on the way to 25-23 win to close out the match.

I will say that on the setting errors I often can't discern whether it is the setter or the approach of the attacker is at fault, a little of both or just a miscommunication. In any case the box score assigns that error to the setter.

[1972Shocker]

Houston is now 3-11 in AAC play and 2 of their wins are over the Shocks. Not sure how to explain that. They were the better team tonight.

The Shocks got some needed help with SMU beating Tulsa but that is of little consequence now.

[flyingMoose]

No video on the site of post-match comments with Mike. Were there none?

[1972Shocker]

Mike was in Annapolis calling the Men's Basketball game vs Providence. I'm not sure there was an audio stream of the Houston match. I tried to get the post match comments on my telephone but was unable to make any connection,

[flyingMoose]

Annapolis. Doh.

Thanks.

[1972Shocker]

Shocks ve SMU
Set 1: .Shocks started very slow falling behind 9-16 before battling back. Could just not quite make it all the back though falling just short at 23-25.

Set 2: .SMU jumped out to a 6-3 but the Shocks pulled even at 10-all. Shocks fell behind again at 15-18. A really bad set by Kora and a service ace that split Giorgia and Tabitha with neither making a move for the ball made it 17-22. Shocks trying to battle back again and have tied it at 22-all. Shocks get one set point at 24-23 but can't cash in and SMU closes out the set at 26-24 to take a 2-0 lead.

Alex (10-1-18) and Regan (8-1-17) playing well. But everyone else is hitting .000.

Set 3:. SMU again jumped out to a 7-4 lead but Shocks use a strong block to pull ahead at 12-8. Shocks maintaining at 19-15. Tightening up at 22-20. Shocks extend to 23-20 but all off a sudden it is back to even at 23-all. SMU pulls it out 28-26 to finish off the sweep.

[1972Shocker]

Lately it seemed to my untrained eye that opposing defenses have been gobbling up just about everything our outside hitters could throw at them. This weekend was no exception to that. I've been wondering if our attackers or our offense has become too predictable allowing opposing defenses to be better prepared and positioned to handle the Shocker attack.

I think Lambo shed a little light on that in his post-game comments. If I heard him correctly and understood him correctly I think he basically said that because the Shocks have not be able to generate much of a middle attack this year that opponents are able to focus more on positioning to stop the pin attacks. I'm sure Lambo is frustrated with this because having a strong middle attack has been a hallmark of his Shockers teams for many years. Hopefully, the Shockers can get that figured out between now and next year. In today's match Emma, Brooke and Abby were 10-10-31. Grace did not play. Sounds like the reasons for this are somewhat shared by both the setters and the hitters. In any case, it has not worked well this year and if anything it seems to be getting worse. Perhaps some of that can be attributed to the musical chairs on the roster stemming from the plethora of injuries this year as well.

Alex (16-2-33) and Regan (9-1-22) actually had pretty good days on the pins today. However, Tabitha (8-4-29) and Megan (5-3-25) struggled to score.

Statistically the match was very close but SMU was better in making the plays when the sets were on the line than the Shockers were.

NCAA chances are gone. NIVC chances are also very slim if not gone as well. At this point the Shocks will be playing for pride and perhaps trying to avoid their first losing season since 2001, Lambo's 2nd year. The Shocks are now 12-14 overall and 7-8 in the AAC with 4 matches to play. They need to go 3-1 to finish at .500 for the year. A very modest goal for sure but perhaps the only thing left to shoot for.

[ShockTalk]

Shocks ve SMU
Set 1: .Shocks started very slow falling behind 9-16 before battling back. Could just not quite make it all the back though falling just short at 23-25.

Set 2: .SMU jumped out to a 6-3 but the Shocks pulled even at 10-all. Shocks fell behind again at 15-18. A really bad set by Kora and a service ace that split Giorgia and Tabitha with neither making a move for the ball made it 17-22. Shocks trying to battle back again and have tied it at 22-all. Shocks get one set point at 24-23 but can't cash in and SMU closes out the set at 26-24 to take a 2-0 lead.

Alex (10-1-18) and Regan (8-1-17) playing well. But everyone else is hitting .000.

Set 3:. SMU again jumped out to a 7-4 lead but Shocks use a strong block to pull ahead at 12-8. Shocks maintaining at 19-15. Tightening up at 22-20. Shocks extend to 23-20 but all off a sudden it is back to even at 23-all. SMU pulls it out 28-26 to finish off the sweep.

Alex was on target!

Once again, it was medium long to long runs in each sets that was our bugaboo.

Also to quote: "will say that on the setting errors I often can't discern whether it is the setter or the approach of the attacker is at fault, a little of both or just a miscommunication".

[flyingMoose]

FWIW,

Other Sunday Matches

ECU 0-3 UCF
This match clinches the conference title for the Knights as they win the tiebreaker with Cincinnati.

Cincinnati 3-0 USF

UConn 2-3 Tulane
The Green Wave winning streak continues.

Houston 0-3 Tulsa

Temple 3-0 Memphis

[ShockTalk]

Gahhhddd! Tulsa beats Houston in straight sets.

[1972Shocker]

Alex was on target!

Once again, it was medium long to long runs in each sets that was our bugaboo.

Also to quote: "will say that on the setting errors I often can't discern whether it is the setter or the approach of the attacker is at fault, a little of both or just a miscommunication".

Another factor that can effect the quality of sets on occasion is the quality of passes being made to the setter. One of the reasons I like volleyball is that everything is so intertwined and to be good you need all the pieces of the puzzle fitting together as much as possible although there will be plenty of times a setter has to save a bad pass and a hitter has to overcome a less than ideal set as well. This year we may have had fewer times everything was in sync and when it wasn't perhaps we were not quite as good as we have been in converting in less than ideal situations.

I don't envy this year's group of setters and young middles having to follow the Emily and Abbie Show. Throw the multiple injury issues into the mix and you have a frutstating year on your hands. Not only were Emily and Abbie two of the most talented volleyball players to play at WSU but they were very durable and perhaps a bit fortunate. During their 4 years of eligibility following their redshirt years The Shockers played 467 sets in 131 matches. Emily played in all 467 sets. Abbie played in all 131 matches and in all but 4 of the 467 sets. Abbie at least was able to come out of matches as she was not a 6 rotation player. Emily played almost every point of every set during her 4 years plus in the setting position she would be required to cover more ground than any other position on the court. I would guess somehwere around 20,000 points. Perhaps the plethora of injuries this year is due to the volleyball gods collecting payment for the good fortune the Shocks enjoyed with Emily and Abbie staying healthy.

[ShockTalk]

We have been spoiled.