Talent vs system

[CBB_Fan]

One thing to note about recruiting rankings: They are NOT about college basketball. They are about the NBA. The recruiting analysts mainly evaluate how much NBA potential a player has, and that is determined by measurements and athleticism first, skills second, player mentality a distant third.

But that isn't really a good way to rank college basketball guys. While many of the top NBA players are good college players, there are a LOT of recruits with the potential to be great in college without the things that push them to the NBA level. Gregg Marshall has been good at finding those guys. They aren't "misses" by the recruiting services, because the recruiting rankings measure exactly what they are intended to measure: NBA potential.

[shockmonster]

One thing to note about recruiting rankings: They are NOT about college basketball. They are about the NBA. The recruiting analysts mainly evaluate how much NBA potential a player has, and that is determined by measurements and athleticism first, skills second, player mentality a distant third.

But that isn't really a good way to rank college basketball guys. While many of the top NBA players are good college players, there are a LOT of recruits with the potential to be great in college without the things that push them to the NBA level. Gregg Marshall has been good at finding those guys. They aren't "misses" by the recruiting services, because the recruiting rankings measure exactly what they are intended to measure: NBA potential.

The biggest indictment of recruiting rankings is that when certain schools sign high but lesser known players (maybe 150 range), the player ranking improves. Like I've said like a mob mentality. Maybe they hear about that player because they can't see them all play. Kids who have no holes in their game are easy to predict. We have very few players who don't have holes in their game. Thus we have FVV who dominates Yogi Farrell I'm AAU but isn't considered close to his caliber.

[Rlh04d]

One thing to note about recruiting rankings: They are NOT about college basketball. They are about the NBA. The recruiting analysts mainly evaluate how much NBA potential a player has, and that is determined by measurements and athleticism first, skills second, player mentality a distant third.

But that isn't really a good way to rank college basketball guys. While many of the top NBA players are good college players, there are a LOT of recruits with the potential to be great in college without the things that push them to the NBA level. Gregg Marshall has been good at finding those guys. They aren't "misses" by the recruiting services, because the recruiting rankings measure exactly what they are intended to measure: NBA potential.

I fully agree with this.

[Rlh04d]

The biggest indictment of recruiting rankings is that when certain schools sign high but lesser known players (maybe 150 range), the player ranking improves. Like I've said like a mob mentality. Maybe they hear about that player because they can't see them all play. Kids who have no holes in their game are easy to predict. We have very few players who don't have holes in their game. Thus we have FVV who dominates Yogi Farrell I'm AAU but isn't considered close to his caliber.

Unfortunately, Yogi Farrell almost certainly has more NBA potential than FVV. He also had significantly better stats last season than FVV despite playing better competition.

Do you have evidence of a player's rankings only improving because of the schools signing them? I believe it happens, too, but it's speculation unless you have any evidence of it happening. To be honest, this oft-repeated criticism without evidence of it verges on "mob mentality" itself.

All kids have holes in their games. Andrew Wiggins has holes in his game. That's kind of a ridiculous statement. Even Michael Jordan had holes in his game.

And the recruiting services see all of the kids you talk about play. They saw FVV play, they saw Baker play. Anyone in the 2* and up they definitely see.

[wufan]

They saw FVV play, they saw Baker play. Anyone in the 2* and up they definitely see.

While I was in agreement with your post, I do not believe this last statement is true. Rivals rated Fred as 101 or 151 (can't remember which) because he got rave reviews, but NOBODY on the staff actually saw him play.

Ron Baker played ZERO AAU games. He played at a western Kansas High school. I doubt very seriously anyone from rivals/scout saw him play.

[Rlh04d]

While I was in agreement with your post, I do not believe this last statement is true. Rivals rated Fred as 101 or 151 (can't remember which) because he got rave reviews, but NOBODY on the staff actually saw him play.

Ron Baker played ZERO AAU games. He played at a western Kansas High school. I doubt very seriously anyone from rivals/scout saw him play.

You don't think anyone from Rivals/Scout saw Baker play in the Kansas state 3A finals, or FVV's team finishing third in the IHSA state tournament?

I'm not arguing they were scouted well, but I have a serious hard time believing these guys were never seen at all. FVV was in the running for Mr. Illinois, but nobody ever thought to see him play a single game?

Baker might have been playing in west Kansas, but that's not like playing in Cambodia with a rock that's in the vague shape of a basketball. He was playing in the finals of a state tournament. He was seen.

[wufan]

You don't think anyone from Rivals/Scout saw Baker play in the Kansas state 3A finals, or FVV's team finishing third in the IHSA state tournament?

I'm not arguing they were scouted well, but I have a serious hard time believing these guys were never seen at all. FVV was in the running for Mr. Illinois, but nobody ever thought to see him play a single game?

Baker might have been playing in west Kansas, but that's not like playing in Cambodia with a rock that's in the vague shape of a basketball. He was playing in the finals of a state tournament. He was seen.

I believe you are wrong. If you can find a single first hand assessment from Scout or Rivals on Baker, I will recant. I specifically remember Rivals stating that FVV was rated so low because none of them had seen him play in person. I believe Scout did see him.

[shockmonster]

You don't think anyone from Rivals/Scout saw Baker play in the Kansas state 3A finals, or FVV's team finishing third in the IHSA state tournament?

I'm not arguing they were scouted well, but I have a serious hard time believing these guys were never seen at all. FVV was in the running for Mr. Illinois, but nobody ever thought to see him play a single game?

Baker might have been playing in west Kansas, but that's not like playing in Cambodia with a rock that's in the vague shape of a basketball. He was playing in the finals of a state tournament. He was seen.

Rh04dt seems to know all the answers but I'll enter things that I've heard in the past but can't prove. FVV was under evaluated because he played on a local AAU team and his team didn't travel nationally to big events. Baker didn't play any AAU because of baseball. Almost all evaluating is done at the big events like LA and Chicago, etc. when most evaluators are around and the Highly recruited players are playing. Hopefully people on here who have a greater knowledge of how AAU works will speak up.

[shockmonster]

I

[shockmonster]

I will add that FVVwas one of the tallest players on his AAU team but he stuck with them ecause he was loyal. They were friends of his. A lot of this was on here a year ago.

[Kung Wu]

BELIEVE

[Rlh04d]

Rh04dt seems to know all the answers but I'll enter things that I've heard in the past but can't prove. FVV was under evaluated because he played on a local AAU team and his team didn't travel nationally to big events. Baker didn't play any AAU because of baseball. Almost all evaluating is done at the big events like LA and Chicago, etc. when most evaluators are around and the Highly recruited players are playing. Hopefully people on here who have a greater knowledge of how AAU works will speak up.

I'm not doubting that FVV was under-evaluated; clearly he was. But that's a hell of a stretch going from "under evaluated" to "never saw him play and gave him a top 150 ranking because of hearsay." Especially in a talent rich state like Illinois.

I also don't see the point in basically dismissing me as a know it all because my opinion is different than yours.

Also: Fred Van Vleet participated at the 17-Under Super Showcase in Kissimmee, FL, where his AAU squad won the Silver Division Championship. Scout's evaluators saw him play there.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I know that many dislike comments about grammar and spelling. So I am reticent to make this post.

This is what I know. Improved grammar and spelling in some posts will improve my understanding of the posts.

God, I hate myself for this post. I am going into a shell for a few days. Blast away.

[1979Shocker]

I know that many dislike comments about grammar and spelling. So I am reticent to make this post.

This is what I know. Improved grammar and spelling in some posts will improve my understanding of the posts.

God, I hate myself for this post. I am going into a shell for a few days. Blast away.

You're good. No grammar or spelling errors found.