MVC Projections after Non Con

[SHOXAAC]

It's tough to project the 13th ranked conference getting more than one bid.

Probably not for the last time this year: "Teams get into the tournament, 1972, not conferences." Last year the Horizon was ranked 12th in RPI (Warren Nolan), but does anyone doubt that Butler would have been in even if they had stumbled in the conference tournament? Similarly, the WCAC ranked 14th, and Gonzaga did stumble in their tournament. But their RPI ranked 33rd and they were in.

If WSU takes care of business in league play and avoids a complete flame-out in St. Louis, they'll be in the NCAA tournament whether they have an automatic spot or an at-large. Book it, Dano.

Dead on!!!

[SubGod22]

WSU
MSU
CU
UNI
Ind. St.
Ill. St.
Drake
SIU
Evansville
Bradley

Bradley lost too much. Drake is young and will get better. They are my "suprise" team. I still don't think UNI is very good.

WSU is number 1 in my book. There is a drop off and then MSU and CU, and I think UNI finishes deep in 4th, but there is another drop off after that. The bottom 6 could finish in any order. The bottom 6 aren't as awful as we've all been saying this year, so they pose a danger, but...

Drake fans right now would disagree with you.

[The Mad Hatter]

I won't take the time at the moment to post a full prediction, but I will say that I think everyone here seems to be underselling Evansville.

I know it is easy to just as Evansville is Evansville, but they have shown an ability to beat good teams (both UNI and us last year and Butler this year). They have also played a tougher non-con schedule than most teams in the Valley, so they should be better prepared than teams like Illinois State.

It's not that I think they make a huge move up in the standings, but I don't see them in the bottom two, right now.

[1972Shocker]

It's tough to project the 13th ranked conference getting more than one bid.

Probably not for the last time this year: "Teams get into the tournament, 1972, not conferences." Last year the Horizon was ranked 12th in RPI (Warren Nolan), but does anyone doubt that Butler would have been in even if they had stumbled in the conference tournament? Similarly, the WCAC ranked 14th, and Gonzaga did stumble in their tournament. But their RPI ranked 33rd and they were in.

If WSU takes care of business in league play and avoids a complete flame-out in St. Louis, they'll be in the NCAA tournament whether they have an automatic spot or an at-large. Book it, Dano.

I don't disagree with that at all. However, I think you will agree that RPI and SOS are important factors. I agree that if we can get our RPI to 30 or better we should be able to make the dance as long as we don't lose a quarterfinals game in the MVC Tournament. However, the strength of the conference has a lot to do with how strong your RPI and SOS will be come tournament time. Right now the Shocks have an RPI around 47 and an SOS rank of 90. RealtimeRPI.com is projecting a 14-4 MVC finish and an RPI of 44 and a SOS of 127 for the year. They are not factoring in the Bracket Busters game. Those are borderline numbers for an at-large selection.

I'm predicting we'll go 15-3 in the MVC and win our Bracket Buster game so I expect our numbers to be better than what RealTimeRPI is projecting. Still, their is little, if any, room for error. And we haven't exactly been dominating in our previous Bracket Buster games.

[ShockerEngr]

I won't take the time at the moment to post a full prediction, but I will say that I think everyone here seems to be underselling Evansville.

I know it is easy to just as Evansville is Evansville, but they have shown an ability to beat good teams (both UNI and us last year and Butler this year). They have also played a tougher non-con schedule than most teams in the Valley, so they should be better prepared than teams like Illinois State.

It's not that I think they make a huge move up in the standings, but I don't see them in the bottom two, right now.

I'd have to agree. Their record may not show it well, but the E-Ville has put in one of the better non-con performances in the valley.

Now granted, the bar has been set awfully low this year. But they're a team to watch out for, and given the weakness of the bottom of the league, it wouldn't suprise me to seem them in 5th.

[SubGod22]

I don't see E'Ville getting out of playing on Thursday.

1 - Shox
2 - Bears
3 - BJs
4 - Cats
5 - Trees
6 - Braves
7 - 'Birds
8 - Pimps
9 - Ugly Dogs
10 - Bulldogs

[Aargh]

70% of the Valley will have a striking resemblance to a Hoover - and I ain't talking about Herbert or J. Edgar - well, maybe Herbert.

It's dangerous to play in a league full of RPI 150 - 225 teams, each of which has their home game against you circled on their calendars.

[KC Shox]

I agree. I don't think avoiding a bad loss this season is going to be possible. We will be getting everyone's best shot - especially when we are at their place. Actually, it appears we will have to go undefeated to avoid a bad loss in our crappy conference. Oh well, let's just try to avoid have more than 2 bad losses.

[capnkirk]

1. WSU
2. CU
3. MSU
4. UNI
5. ILLST
6. BU
7. UE
8. INDST
9. SIU
10.DU

[pogo]

70% of the Valley will have a striking resemblance to a Hoover - and I ain't talking about Herbert or J. Edgar - well, maybe Herbert.

It's dangerous to play in a league full of RPI 150 - 225 teams, each of which has their home game against you circled on their calendars.

And unfortunatly several have proven that they are capable of playing at least one game at a high level.

[forevershockerfan]

What was it about Evansville last Season that gave us fits in both games?

[tropicalshox]

I'll go with the Shox at 15-3 or 14-4.
MSU 12-6
CU 12-6
UNI 11-7
The rest not in.

If we can go 15-3, win the bracket buster and get to the Championship game we don't have to hold our breath. Less than that, better work on breath control.

[Kung Wu]

What was it about Evansville last Season that gave us fits in both games?

And UNI and Butler this year.

[Overtime]

I watched Northern Iowa (TV) beat Indiana and New Mexico on successive nights this past week at the Las Vegas Classic........They looked pretty good to me...I think they are capable of being in the mix for an MVC Championship. They are tough minded and poised....at least in those two games...They are the team that has me the most worried at the moment.

[SHOXAAC]

I watched Northern Iowa (TV) beat Indiana and New Mexico on successive nights this past week at the Las Vegas Classic........They looked pretty good to me...I think they are capable of being in the mix for an MVC Championship. They are tough minded and poised....at least in those two games...They are the team that has me the most worried at the moment.

You said it...in those 2 games. Let's not forget their losses to Milwaukee and soundly to Iowa.