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It's still early, but it's still fun to begin looking at how our end-of-season resume is shaping up. So here is my first, long-winded stab at it, looking also at least season's resume.
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Here is what last year's resume looked like compared to what we've done this year.
In the non-con we had two top-50 losses to RPI 18 Pitt and Utah State (40), and one top-100 win against Texas Tech (66). So far I think we can put the UConn and SDSU losses in the top-50 RPI category like Pitt and USU last year. The Virginia win doesn't look as good at the time as Tech last yera, but by the end of the season may be better.
It's obvious, but the rest of our non-con can't afford another loss. But make no mistake, Tulsa has the capability to beat us (they beat MSU by 12) as does LSU since it is a semi-away game for us and they will have some talent. Our Bracket Buster opponent may not be a high RPI team. The list of away teams aren't impressive. As I recall maybe only a couple (VCU comes to mind) have the potential to be top-50. It's at home and a must-win. The Shocks should be fine if they take care of business.
In the MVC we had the two infamous losses outside the top-150 in Drake and Evansville. We already know UE has the potential to knock off a good team (Butler) and they beat us and UNI last year. Nothing is given, but I feel like this year's team can avoid those losses. We amassed one top-50 all year, the one over UNI. I have my doubts whether we will get any more top-50 opponents the rest of the year.
While the RPI isn't particularly useful yet, the inertia is beginning to show and you can identify some of the anamoles in some teams current rankings (like Indiana over #54 Evansville) to arrive at reasonable projection. The opportunities for MVC teams to improve their RPI with good wins are shrinking. Right now there are three MVC teams other than WSU with top-100 RPIs:
UNI (30)
UE (54)
MSU (80)
UNI's 30 seems flimsy to me with a loss to #173 (road) and no top-100 wins. No real quality win opportunities on the horizon except possibly Indiana (a flimsy 104). With OOC games against RPIs @284, 113, 343, 337 and 104, don't expect them to maintain a top-50 RPI, even if their opponents do reasonably well.
UE is, well UE. If the eye-test isn't enough to ensure they won't enter the top-50, games against 329, 183 and 317 isn't going to help. And a home game against UNC won't rescue them, unless they pull off another miracle.
MSU's loss to Tulsa (95) hurts them. They do have a win against #38 (UALR), but we know that RPI won't hold up. Remaining games include @92, 261 and 268. Without a very strong run through the MVC I don't see a top-50 RPI in their future either.
Other than UE's win over Butler, I don't really see any current MVC win looking as good at the end of the season as it does now, except possibly for WSU over UVa. So I don't see any of our league brethren getting RPI boosts from their opponents.
Last year I don't think we were as close to the NCAA cutoff as we'd like to imagine. A reversal of the two bad losses would have put us very close, maybe even in, but I doubt it. We really needed a win over Pitt or USU, combined with at least one of those bad losses reversed.
What I think that means for this year is our margin for error is very, very slim and we need a top-50 win. I only see that coming from a potential Bracket Buster matchup. Now my very subjective RPI projections could be off. I give a 50/50 chance of that being possible, but the next two weeks will tell us a lot.
The MVC's current RPI rank is 12th. What that means is that if it doesn't change there are a lot of conferences with a lot more teams building at-large resumes - rom an RPI perspective - than the MVC. It's true that RPI isn't a mitigating factor in at-large worthiness, but from the outside looking in, it's the best tool we have.
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Here is what last year's resume looked like compared to what we've done this year.
In the non-con we had two top-50 losses to RPI 18 Pitt and Utah State (40), and one top-100 win against Texas Tech (66). So far I think we can put the UConn and SDSU losses in the top-50 RPI category like Pitt and USU last year. The Virginia win doesn't look as good at the time as Tech last yera, but by the end of the season may be better.
It's obvious, but the rest of our non-con can't afford another loss. But make no mistake, Tulsa has the capability to beat us (they beat MSU by 12) as does LSU since it is a semi-away game for us and they will have some talent. Our Bracket Buster opponent may not be a high RPI team. The list of away teams aren't impressive. As I recall maybe only a couple (VCU comes to mind) have the potential to be top-50. It's at home and a must-win. The Shocks should be fine if they take care of business.
In the MVC we had the two infamous losses outside the top-150 in Drake and Evansville. We already know UE has the potential to knock off a good team (Butler) and they beat us and UNI last year. Nothing is given, but I feel like this year's team can avoid those losses. We amassed one top-50 all year, the one over UNI. I have my doubts whether we will get any more top-50 opponents the rest of the year.
While the RPI isn't particularly useful yet, the inertia is beginning to show and you can identify some of the anamoles in some teams current rankings (like Indiana over #54 Evansville) to arrive at reasonable projection. The opportunities for MVC teams to improve their RPI with good wins are shrinking. Right now there are three MVC teams other than WSU with top-100 RPIs:
UNI (30)
UE (54)
MSU (80)
UNI's 30 seems flimsy to me with a loss to #173 (road) and no top-100 wins. No real quality win opportunities on the horizon except possibly Indiana (a flimsy 104). With OOC games against RPIs @284, 113, 343, 337 and 104, don't expect them to maintain a top-50 RPI, even if their opponents do reasonably well.
UE is, well UE. If the eye-test isn't enough to ensure they won't enter the top-50, games against 329, 183 and 317 isn't going to help. And a home game against UNC won't rescue them, unless they pull off another miracle.
MSU's loss to Tulsa (95) hurts them. They do have a win against #38 (UALR), but we know that RPI won't hold up. Remaining games include @92, 261 and 268. Without a very strong run through the MVC I don't see a top-50 RPI in their future either.
Other than UE's win over Butler, I don't really see any current MVC win looking as good at the end of the season as it does now, except possibly for WSU over UVa. So I don't see any of our league brethren getting RPI boosts from their opponents.
Last year I don't think we were as close to the NCAA cutoff as we'd like to imagine. A reversal of the two bad losses would have put us very close, maybe even in, but I doubt it. We really needed a win over Pitt or USU, combined with at least one of those bad losses reversed.
What I think that means for this year is our margin for error is very, very slim and we need a top-50 win. I only see that coming from a potential Bracket Buster matchup. Now my very subjective RPI projections could be off. I give a 50/50 chance of that being possible, but the next two weeks will tell us a lot.
The MVC's current RPI rank is 12th. What that means is that if it doesn't change there are a lot of conferences with a lot more teams building at-large resumes - rom an RPI perspective - than the MVC. It's true that RPI isn't a mitigating factor in at-large worthiness, but from the outside looking in, it's the best tool we have.
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