Do referees try to even the fouls called?

[im4wsu]

I read this article and decided to look at WSU statistics for the last two seasons. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/sp...ll/01refs.html

I have excluded fouls called in the last three minutes of the game because many games the losing team is trying to foul.

The liklihood of the next foul being called against the team with the fewest fouls at the time is 51.8%

The liklihood of the next foul being called on the team leading at the time is 50.8%.

In looking at the stats of various referees, I was suprised to note that 77 of 204 referee/games (three referees per game) were referees that did only games at WSU or only games on the road. The remaining 127 referee games were spread among 19 officials that did both home and road games. The comparison that follows shows for those 19 referees the average fouls per game called on WSU at home; the visitors at WSU; WSU on the road and the opponents for those road games.

edited to correct table

[60Shock]

Great stat and a really fine effort.

So what is your conclusion?

[im4wsu]

The study linked in the OP says:

"referees called fouls on visiting teams at a probability of 7 percent higher than on home teams" My WSU 2-year study shows 5.2%


"there was a 69 percent chance the visitors would be whistled for the next foul if the home team had five or more fouls [more] than the visiting team; " My WSU 2-year stat shows 69.8%.

"and that when the home team led, its chances of being whistled for the next foul were about 6.3 percent higher than when it trailed. " My WSU 2-year stat shows 4.0%

I also found a 1.4% higher chance that the team with the lead would be called for the next foul.


From my OP above,
"The liklihood of the next foul being called against the team with the fewest fouls at the time is 51.8% "

This doesn't sound like much of a bias, but if the fouls called early in the game were "appropriately called" and resulted in a difference in fouls (assuming of course that the teams don't change the way they're playing) at the 51.8% to 48.2% differential, then the next call would be expected to be 7.5% toward the team with the most fouls; instead it is 1.8% toward the team with the fewest fouls. This is a 9.2% swing from "what would be right."

[wu_shizzle]

So... they really don't hate us then?

[im4wsu]

Help from anybody would be appreciated. I'm looking for a data source that has basketball year-end conference standings for all conferences going back to at least 1985. Thanks.