examiner.com's MVC Tourney Preview

[ShockerFever]

Re: examiner.com's MVC Tourney Preview

http://www.examiner.com/x-7020-Bradley-Braves-Examiner~y2010m3d4-Missouri-Valley-Tournament-Preview

Here's the WSU excerpt:

Wichita State Shockers – Odds: 5/2 – teamrankings.com: 19.15% - WSU exceeded expectations this season by finishing second in the Valley with a 12-6 record. The Shockers were picked to end in the middle of the pack, but went undefeated at home and registered three road wins to finish the regular season at 23-8.

They can win if… they can score. The Shockers are 17-1 this season when they score 69 points or more.

They are out if… opponents are able to control the paint against their small lineup.

Outlook: The young Shockers had an excellent regular season, but Coach Gregg Marshall's squad doesn't have a solid road win this season. They will fizzle out in the semifinals in a fantastic game against Illinois State.

" They will fizzle out in the semifinals in a fantastic game against Illinois State. " REALLY? I didn't notice. Who is playing on Sunday?

It's easy to criticize people who put their nuts out without doing so yourself.

I must've missed your prediction of a WSU win today?

[SpanglerFan316]

I don't usually make predictions. In my opinion, anyone who makes a public prediction is opening himself/herself up to criticism. On the other hand, my criticism is not very serious; I just wanted to "rib" him a little in a friendly way. I appreciate his articles.

Of course, the probabilities he quoted from other sites said WSU had a better chance than ISU. He ignored this and predicted WSU would lose to ISU. Certainly this deserves a comment. :D

[ShockerFever]

Do you have an axe to grind with this guy or something?

Who cares what he predicts or doesn't predict? Are you gonna call out everyone who picked against WSU today? It was basically a coin flip and we got the win. Let's just leave it at that.

That's fine if you don't make predictions. But I personally think it's extremely weak to go out of your way to mock somebody else's slightly wrong predictions without making any yourself.

[electricmayhem]

Hey -- no reason for any in-fighting on a great day for WSU and the Valley.

I don't take anything personally... I just enjoy writing about the Valley. Sure, I have teams I like and dislike... being a BU alum does that to you!

My thought was that if Osiris rose to the test, ISU would get a victory. He couldn't throw the ball in the ocean yesterday, so WSU was victorious.

On the WSU side of the ball, CH wasn't shooting well, but TM showed why he could very easily be first-team All-MVC next year. He's going to be an absolute stud before his career is over.

GB looked good off the bench, even with the fouls called against him. Of course, Demetric was the story with his best game of the year.

Like I've said on this forum before, the WSU community has always been one of the most classy groups of people I've dealt with. When I was working for a Peoria newspaper, Coach Turgeon (and Coach Smithson) was always extremely professional, even thought I was basically a kid.

A few guys ribbing my predictions won't change my positive view of WSU.

GO SHOX!

[SpanglerFan316]

I agree that WSU could easily have lost; Durley made some bonehead plays (turnovers) which cost the Shocks some points and could have determined the game. ISU could have hit their free throws and won. On the other hand, WSU could have played smarter and won by 20.

I believe a lot of people secretly thought ISU would beat WSU, even if they predicted otherwise. Your prediction was very reasonable and easily supported. Of course, it was also wrong. (If there is an issue here, it is "respect" for WSU's record & program. I have to wonder if, deep down, ShockerFever & others have this respect or if they secretly believe WSU got lucky and is just a "pretender." If you don't have respect for and confidence for WSU, you might "apologize" if they win a big game because you don't really think they deserve it.)

ShockerFever criticized me for not making a prediction. OK, I'll make a prediction about the UNI-WSU game after making a few comments.

1. WSU beat UNI by 9 at home on 1/19/2010 and lost by 3 at UNI on 2/3/2010. Based on this, one might expect WSU to do well against the Panthers today. However Bradley beat UNI once and barely lost to the Panthers at UNI; in the MVC semifinal, UNI killed Bradley. I think this demonstrates that using the regular season record to predict the outcome of MVC tourney games is problematic.

2. WSU played two tough games while UNI coasted through two games against overmatched teams. UNI is probably much fresher. I think some WSU players (e.g. Durley) make dumb errors when they get tired or frustrated (& UNI is very good at frustrating opponents.) I also think some WSU players (e.g. Hatch) shoot more poorly when they get tired in a game or worn down at the end of the season.

3. WSU is much younger than UNI and will probably make more errors than the Panthers.

4. Gregg Marshall has never lost a tourney final. Who is the better "adjustments" coach, HCGM or HCBJ? I think Gregg gets the nod here; UNI has not been challenged in the tourney (except for letting Drake get a big lead and then squashing them like a bug.) This point is subject to reasonable disagreement.

5. UNI doesn't need this game; they are playing for pride and seeding in the MVC tourney. I don't think this will influence UNI but it might influence the refs (either wishing UNI to get a better seed or the MVC to get an at-large.) I think the refs will determine the outcome of this game. If they call fouls on Durley and Stutz like in the previous games, WSU is in trouble. (BTW: Did you agree with the last two fouls on Stutz in the ISU game? I didn't.)

My prediction is that the refs call the game in a manner that puts Durley on the bench for much of the first half and causes Stutz to get in foul trouble and this allows UNI to win the MVC title.

[SpanglerFan316]

"5. UNI doesn't need this game; they are playing for pride and seeding in the NCAA tourney."
Sorry.

[SpanglerFan316]

I'm waiting for the "The Refs don't determine the outcome of the game" comments. If so, please explain things like http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/...n4301832.shtml.

[electricmayhem]

The refs don't determine the outcome of the game. :D

I had to.

[Kung Wu]

Wow, I was tracking with Spangler until he hit referee conspiracy theory mode. Dude.

[OTR Shockfan]

All I have to say about Refs not effecting the outcome of games is ,,, 1.9

[Ricardo del Rio]

All I have to say about Refs not effecting the outcome of games is ,,, 1.9

Not to get 1.9 rolling for discussion again, but I thought about it yesterday.

Some player threw a ball inbounds to a teammate. The teammate had already told the ref he was going to call time out. The ball hit his hands and time out was called and granted instantly. The elapsed time was 1.0 seconds. I am not sure how that much time elapsed, but it did make me think of 1.9.

[SpanglerFan316]

Wow, I was tracking with Spangler until he hit referee conspiracy theory mode. Dude.

It's not about a "referee conspiracy theory" but the quality of the calls. Did you see Stutz's last foul? What did you think? (OK, I put the "but it might influence the refs" comment to get a reaction from the "refs" on this board who always defend the officials. My bad. ;-) )

[ShockerFever]

Now you're on to the ref "fix"... :roll: :roll: :roll:

Man, can you please zip it?

[SpanglerFan316]

The refs made some bad calls against the Redbirds and some against the Shocks. It didn't change the outcome of the ISU-WSU game.

If Stutz & Durley spend a lot of time on the bench because of fouls, it could change the outcome of the game because of the match-ups. Ellis cannot handle Eglseder and Blair would also have trouble. Of course, if UNI gets in foul trouble, WSU has the advantage. However UNI is much deeper than WSU.

Match-Ups
Center
UNI
#53 Eglseder, Jordan 7-0 280 C SR
#43 Rodenberg, Adam 6-6 245 C SR
#33 Pehl, Austin 6-10 245 C RS FR
(#32 O'Rear, Lucas 6-6 255 F JR ???)

WSU
#41 Stutz, Garrett C 7-0 248 So.
#31 Durley, J.T. C/F 6-7 240 RJr.


Power Forwards
UNI
#34 Koch, Adam 6-8 255 F SR
#20 Koch, Jake 6-9 255 F RS FR
#32 O'Rear, Lucas 6-6 255 F JR
(#40 Lange, Tyler 6-6 210 F FR)

WSU
#32 Blair, Gabe F 6-8 233 Jr.
#0 Ellis, Aaron F 6-9 216 Jr.
#11 Felter, Mason F 6-8 216 RSo.
(#4 Hamilton, Jerome F 6-7 223 Fr. )

[SpanglerFan316]

Now you're on to the ref "fix"... :roll: :roll: :roll:

Man, can you please zip it?

Sorry you can't read. The ref "fix" was not a serious comment; I just wanted to see if the usual suspects would jump up and defend officials (without regard to any facts.) I guess you missed my post:

Wow, I was tracking with Spangler until he hit referee conspiracy theory mode. Dude.

It's not about a "referee conspiracy theory" but the quality of the calls. Did you see Stutz's last foul? What did you think? (OK, I put the "but it might influence the refs" comment to get a reaction from the "refs" on this board who always defend the officials. My bad. ;-) )

electricmayhem got the joke; actually I think he is pretty sharp. (Wrong, but sharp. ;-) :D )