Are we out of the woods for the play in round?

[ShockTalk]

Holding on to second place in the Valley should have another benefit other than the Valley tournament. A second place finish should get us a home/home from the MWC with UNM, BYU, or UNLV starting next year. Good for the RPI and will be fun to watch.

[shock4life]

With 15 MVC games remaining, the tournament seeding possibilities for each team are as follows:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Brad 0% 2% 10% 30% 28% 19% 8% 2% 0% 0%
Cre 0% 1% 11% 35% 24% 16% 8% 3% 0% 0%
Dra 0% 0% 0% 6% 16% 29% 27% 13% 6% 0%
Eva 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Illi 0% 22% 53% 13% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Ind 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 5% 12% 27% 43% 0%
Mis 0% 0% 4% 8% 13% 17% 22% 21% 12% 0%
Nor 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sou 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 8% 17% 28% 35% 0%
Wic 1% 74% 21% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RPI 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 0%
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[newshock1234]

so by those numbers, we cant finish no worse than a 4 seed

[martymoose]

Same numbers in a little easier to read format.

      1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10
Brad  0%   2%  10%  30%  28%  19%   8%   2%   0%   0%
Cre   0%   1%  11%  35%  24%  16%   8%   3%   0%   0%
Dra   0%   0%   0%   6%  16%  29%  27%  13%   6%   0%
Eva   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0% 100%
Illi  0%  22%  53%  13%   7%   3%   1%   0%   0%   0%
Ind   0%   0%   1%   3%   4%   5%  12%  27%  43%   0%
Mis   0%   0%   4%   8%  13%  17%  22%  21%  12%   0%
Nor  99%   1%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%
Sou   0%   0%   0%   1%   6%   8%  17%  28%  35%   0%
Wic   1%  74%  21%   4%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%   0%
RPI   0%   1%   1%   1%   2%   3%   4%   5%   2%   0%

Wic 1%

"So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*"

[vbird53]

So, bearing these figures out and projecting would look like:

1. UNI
2. WSU
3. ISU (R)
4. CU
5. BU
6. DU
7. MSU
8. SIU
9. ISU (B)
10. EU


Amazing to me that A) DU can finish that high, and B) MSU can finish that low. Also crazy to think ISU (B) could finish lower than both DU and SIU.

[shock-it-to-me]

I'm not in love with an Illinois State semifinal match-up, although, if TM can hold OE in check like last time, maybe I shouldn't be so worried. Also not crazy about seeing MSU in the first round. I would rather DU and MSU flip flop.

[newshock1234]

Its just me, but i do think MSU will stay out of the play in round, I think our first round round oppenent is either gonna be ISU blue or Drake

[shock-it-to-me]

So, bearing these figures out and projecting would look like:

1. UNI
2. WSU
3. ISU (R)
4. CU
5. BU
6. DU
7. MSU
8. SIU
9. ISU (B)
10. EU


Amazing to me that A) DU can finish that high, and B) MSU can finish that low. Also crazy to think ISU (B) could finish lower than both DU and SIU.

question, does the bracket get set before the tournament starts? In other words, if 10 actually upset 7 in the play in round, then would 2 still get to play 10, while 1 would play the 8/9 winner?

[martymoose]

I'm not in love with an Illinois State semifinal match-up, although, if TM can hold OE in check like last time, maybe I shouldn't be so worried. Also not crazy about seeing MSU in the first round. I would rather DU and MSU flip flop.

I want whatever it takes to get CU. If it means us finishing 4th...so be it.

[jdmee]

Notice that these numbers are not how "likely" the standings will be at the end of the season, but under the assumptions that each game is equally likely to we won or lost by either team.

For example the number above are assuming a 50/50 chance that a Drake team that is 2-6 on the road will beat a MSU team that is 6-2 at home.

Chances are greater than 50/50 that MSU will win that game.

[jdmee]

[quote="shock-it-to-me"]

question, does the bracket get set before the tournament starts? In other words, if 10 actually upset 7 in the play in round, then would 2 still get to play 10, while 1 would play the 8/9 winner?

per the MVC handbook

"A traditional ten-team, single-elimination bracket shall be used."

So the bracket is set.

[martymoose]

question, does the bracket get set before the tournament starts? In other words, if 10 actually upset 7 in the play in round, then would 2 still get to play 10, while 1 would play the 8/9 winner?

As mentioned, it is preset.

http://www.mvc.org/mbb/mbb_bracket.pdf

[ShockRef]

I'm not in love with an Illinois State semifinal match-up, although, if TM can hold OE in check like last time, maybe I shouldn't be so worried. Also not crazy about seeing MSU in the first round. I would rather DU and MSU flip flop.

I want whatever it takes to get CU. If it means us finishing 4th...so be it.

Get the impression it would be ok with Marty if WSU finished 10th, as long as they beat CU in the tournament.

If true, that's some serious internal anger management issues w/CU. 8)

[pogo]

I can attest that he does have issues. And some of them even pertain to cu. :yes:

[WstateU]

I'm not in love with an Illinois State semifinal match-up, although, if TM can hold OE in check like last time, maybe I shouldn't be so worried. Also not crazy about seeing MSU in the first round. I would rather DU and MSU flip flop.

I want whatever it takes to get CU. If it means us finishing 4th...so be it.

Get the impression it would be ok with Marty if WSU finished 10th, as long as they beat CU in the tournament.

If true, that's some serious internal anger management issues w/CU. 8)

SR, you beat me to it... some CU fan (s) must have cornered (or cornholed) Marty in the can.