Nostradamus time

[WSUwatcher]

Okay, guys -- it's time for a prediction from someone who never makes them: namely, moi.

Here's what you can expect. WSU will finish in St. Louis with a 27-7 record and a spot in the NCAA tournament. I don't know whether that means the Shocks will go in 24-7 and win, or 25-6 and lose in the finals, but either way, they'll move into the NCAA field.

Feel free to remind of this if I'm wrong, but don't forget to pay homage if I'm on the money. You read it here first.

[HockeyShock]

Re: Nostradamus time

Okay, guys -- it's time for a prediction from someone who never makes them: namely, moi.

Here's what you can expect. WSU will finish in St. Louis with a 27-7 record and a spot in the NCAA tournament. I don't know whether that means the Shocks will go in 24-7 and win, or 25-6 and lose in the finals, but either way, they'll move into the NCAA field.

Feel free to remind of this if I'm wrong, but don't forget to pay homage if I'm on the money. You read it here first.

Analyzing possible scenarios for this:

Winning out except for USU puts us at 25-6 going into the tourney, and then losing in the tourney finals. Numbers like 27-7 look good, but I think we're still on the outside edge of the bubble.

If we win out in STL, that means we drop two of our remaining seven, and the best case for us there is losing at USU and Bradley. Even if RPI doesn't mean anything because of the auto-bid, I don't want the team to be so flaky that they lose in Evansville, or so lax that they lose any at home.

:clap: :wsu_posters: :yahoo: :clap:

[RoyalShock]

Minor possible correction on the win totals. I really don't think the Ark-Monti win counts in the minds of selection committee members. I don't have time to search right now, but if anyone knows whether past SC members have addressed this, it would be great to know for sure.

[SubGod22]

Non D1 wins/losses don't count on the resume

[WSUwatcher]

Record

Royal, Nostradamus doesn't care whether the selection committee treats WSU as 26-7 or 27-7.

The record I gave was WSU's final total counting all games, just as it's shown in the newspaper or ESPN on game days. I just looked into the future, saw 27-7 with the Shocks in the NCAA, and that was what I reported.

Then again, it's possible that my crystal ball was a little cloudy, and that 27-7 was WSU's record, in D-1 games only, after the first round of NCAA tournament play. But that's too confusing even to try and figure out -- so I'm sticking with my original story.

Edit -- Let me add two other things: I have no idea where the two losses will come from to put the Shocks at 27-7 after St. Louis. My clairvoyance operates at the level of results, not the details that go into achieving them (although the obvious candidate games are at Utah St., at Bradley, and then the MVC tournament final, which of course WSU has to reach to be able to play 34 games).

Also, for those in panic mode, such as ShockerBipolar (formerly Fever), note that WSU's RPI actually went up a bit, both the index and the ranking, after the loss at UNI last night. Not nearly as much as with a victory, of course, which no doubt would have jumped them over of a number of other teams -- but up nevertheless. And assuming WSU does finish 13-5 (or especially 14-4) in MVC play, they will almost certainly be not only second, but second by enough over third place to have achieved the kind of separation that makes a team part of the conversation for at-large spots if one is needed.

[ShockerPrez]

To anyone that knows.

How many years in the last 10 has the #1 seed in St Louis won the tournament?

[RoyalShock]

If I'm not mistaken, it has happened the past two years (UNI, Drake).

[HockeyShock]

I think the best draw for us in the MVC tourney, at this point at least, would be Drake on Friday, Creighton on Saturday, and UNI of course on Sunday. The way they've talked about the Drake loss, I think they'd be eager to close that issue. Same with Creighton. That leaves a UNI team we are very well matched with and can get the upper hand on if we still have the energy to run on Sunday.

:clap: :wsu_posters: :yahoo: :clap:

[shockerfan]

I think the best draw for us in the MVC tourney, at this point at least, would be Drake on Friday, Creighton on Saturday, and UNI of course on Sunday. The way they've talked about the Drake loss, I think they'd be eager to close that issue. Same with Creighton. That leaves a UNI team we are very well matched with and can get the upper hand on if we still have the energy to run on Sunday.

:clap: :wsu_posters: :yahoo: :clap:

I would be good if those games happened.

[shoxilla]

Shox are in - all they have to do is win the rest of their games.

It's not rocket science.....

[boneshock]

I think we still have a shot to get an at-large. Win out, USU is a tough one as well as Bradley in Peoria (never easy) We may be able to lose one of those two. I stress the word MAY.

We need a good showing at the MVC tourney. I realize our situation is close to Creighton last year and Ill St 2 years ago. They both were embarrassed in their losses in StL. We CANT let that happen.

Another thing to consider is I think there are BCS schools and conferences that are pretty weak...cough PAC 10...cough...UNC (Chapel Hill, not Greeley) as long as the PAC 10 continues to beat each other up much like the middle of our conference has, they are a 2 bid league. I wish they were 1 but you know they'll figure a way out to sneak 2 in. If the Heels and the Huskies and Louisville continue to lay eggs, their bubble will eventually burst.

Now before you reply, just know that this is all my hope. I don't have much faith in the selection committee if it comes down to a 27-6 WSU team and an 19-13 UNC team. Bottom line, if we end up with 26-28 wins I like our chances of making it this year more than 2009 CU and 2008 IllSt.

[WSUShokker]

Id like to think in any year that if this was our years work and we won at USU and lost in the finals that we would make it in the dance...which is probably pretty hopeful

Good thing is it is a down year for the Pac10 and 3 number one seeds from last year struggling to get wins all may help us.

Bad thing is that it is somewhat of a bad year for the valley with the 3 thru 5 teams not garnering much attention to help our league. For that matter our Sos doesent help the league either. Thats got to improve.

Im on the fence still ..we will see what happens...its all pretty foggy for me still

[1979Shocker]

How does our RPI, SOS, etc compare with Creighton's last year when they were 27-8 and didn't make the NCAA field?

[The Mad Hatter]

How does our RPI, SOS, etc compare with Creighton's last year when they were 27-8 and didn't make the NCAA field?

According to Warren Nolan, last year CU had an RPI of 46 and an SOS of 110.

We currently have an RPI of 47 and an SOS of 123.

Warren Nolan predicts that we will finish with an RPI of 39 and an SOS of 123.

[fuball7]

How does our RPI, SOS, etc compare with Creighton's last year when they were 27-8 and didn't make the NCAA field?

I would like to know this as well.

Does 28 and 6 get us in the tourney (win out until the mvc championship game)..

We definitely have to at least get to the title game to have a legitimate shot