Schedule strength and RPI

[WSUwatcher]

As we know, the biggest single component of RPI (50%) is the combined record of a team's opponents, with another 25% for the opponents' own opposition records. Only 25% is accounted for by a team's own record, WSU's greatest strength.

This is painfully apparent in WSU's RPI rank of 52nd today (Warren Nolan). If you look at the team RPIs on Nolan's website, it also ranks strength of schedule (SoS) for each team, and WSU is currently at 204th. No team ranked higher in RPI has even close to as weak an SoS. In fact, Marshall and Baylor (respectively 37th and 43rd in RPI rank, 167th and 160th in SoS rank), are the only two whose SoS rank is worse than even 150th. And two of WSU's next three games are against teams currently below .500 (Creighton and Drake), which isn't good for the opposition record, either.

The good news is that those two games against losing teams are on the road, which means WSU would get a bonus for winning them; and the other is against UNI, whose 15-1 record is one of the best in the country. The bad news is that if the Shocks lose any of the three, they're either missing a great opportunity to make the best of a bad situation or losing a home game, which carries an RPI penalty. So they really do have very little margin for error.

The Shocks are finding ways to win, usually by double-digit margins, which is reason for optimism. But this is a big, big stretch of games coming up.

[KC Shox]

Thank you for the detail and explanation in your post, but this is something that some on here have recognized for a long time. However, we have some homers on here who only look at the record and think that it is the true barometer of this team.

Hopefully, this will help them understand that just because we have a good record doesn't mean we are an NCAA Tourney caliber team. We could be, there are a lot of games left to play. Heck, we could be the basketball equvilent of Boise State. Play one good non-con game, run through an easy conference slate then pick up a win in a bowl game.

However, we may not get that chance since the committee will look at our SOS and be very disappointed and we end up being on the outside looking in.

The MVC needs to go back to mandating its members to have a non-schedule of no higher than 150 in the RPI. This helped back during our Sweet 16 run for not only us, but everyone else in the conference.

[vbird53]

Thank you for the detail and explanation in your post, but this is something that some on here have recognized for a long time. However, we have some homers on here who only look at the record and think that it is the true barometer of this team.

Hopefully, this will help them understand that just because we have a good record doesn't mean we are an NCAA Tourney caliber team. We could be, there are a lot of games left to play. Heck, we could be the basketball equvilent of Boise State. Play one good non-con game, run through an easy conference slate then pick up a win in a bowl game.

However, we may not get that chance since the committee will look at our SOS and be very disappointed and we end up being on the outside looking in.

The MVC needs to go back to mandating its members to have a non-schedule of no higher than 150 in the RPI. This helped back during our Sweet 16 run for not only us, but everyone else in the conference.

I still have never heard from anyone at the conference explaining why that mandate was dropped. If someone knows why, please post here.

One thing not mentioned in many of the predictors out there is that we still have another game to be scheduled. The addition of a potential top 50 program in bracketbusters should help the situation.

But, you guys are right. The margin for error is slim (for an at-large selection).

[notquiteBWing]

yea i was just looking at our RPI and SOS from realtimerpi.com

we are 51 now. we were 62 yesterday. so that is nice

our SOS is 204

of the top 100 teams, we had the 7th friendliest schedule.

58 VT - 217
67 Louisiana tech - 286
70 Miami - 283
75 Murray St - 259
80 northern Colorado 278
97 Illinois State 214

it will be difficult to make the top 20 in rpi I'd bet.
but, if we finish in the top 35 in RPI I think that would almost guarantee an at-large bid.

BUT then again MSU had a 20 (or 22??) RPI back in 06 and they didnt get in.. i had a feeling at the time that the selection committee didnt feel comfortable having more than 4 MVC teams that year.

As they say:
Just win.
and we will be alright.

:good:

[vbird53]

BUT then again MSU had a 20 (or 22??) RPI back in 06 and they didnt get in.. i had a feeling at the time that the selection committee didnt feel comfortable having more than 4 MVC teams that year.

Yeah, kinda goes against the notion that the selection committee "only looks at individual teams, not conferences". Every time I hear that line, it makes me think of Missouri State.

[notquiteBWing]

i remember that is really hurt them to not be able to beat us ethier time and to not make it past the first round (loss to bradley i believe) in the MVC tourny.

i think it would have been MSU if bradley hadnt beat the crap out of everyone down the stretch.
bradley probably, in essence, took MSUs spot.

[rrshock]

i remember that is really hurt them to not be able to beat us ethier time and to not make it past the first round (loss to bradley i believe) in the MVC tourny.

i think it would have been MSU if bradley hadnt beat the crap out of everyone down the stretch.
bradley probably, in essence, took MSUs spot.

And then proceded to do a good job in the NCAAs by tar feathering a certain team we all have grown to dislike....

[Shock-Til-U-Drop]

However, we have some homers on here who only look at the record and think that it is the true barometer of this team.

Hi. My name is Homer. My Shocks are 16-2. We're going to the NCAA's!!..................YOU GOTTA BELIEVE, BABY!

[rrshock]

Next year's SOS shouldn't be near as much of a problem for WSU with the trip to Maui. A good showing there and we won't have to worry about WSU flying under the radar or not getting any respect.

And I too agree that the MVC needs to put that mandate back in. It went away and so did the good schedules. I hope it comes back again for next year, but doubt it will.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Just some side note information as follows:

1. Pitt defeated the Shockers by 13.

2. Pitt is 14-2

3. Pitt defeated Syracuse, Cincinnati and U-Conn in its last three games and all games were on the road.

[MadDog]

We've got to quit drinking the SWAC poison! Two cupcakes from about any other conference and we probably wouldn't be having this conversation.

[ShockerFever]

We've got to quit drinking the SWAC poison! Two cupcakes from about any other conference and we probably wouldn't be having this conversation.

Agreed.

Or even better, eliminate the extra cupcakes period.

[ShockTalk]

We've got to quit drinking the SWAC poison! Two cupcakes from about any other conference and we probably wouldn't be having this conversation.

Agreed.

Or even better, eliminate the extra cupcakes period.

Agreed! Based on Pomeroy, we have played 6 teams between 248 and 347 with only 1 due to the KC tourney (the other team wasn't D1). Keep a couple of those, but add 2 to 3 that have a good chance of being between 100-200.