One of the most interesting articles I’ve ever read on March Madness odds based upon computer simulations.
Yet, when sports forecaster AccuScore ran 10,000 computer simulations of the game between the Jayhawks (25-7) and the Bison (26-6), Kansas lost 22.6% of the time, more than any of the top-12 teams in the tournament… But when players are given mathematical descriptions by a computer model that reduces their performances to a rolling series of probabilities, many of those upsets are not so shocking after all… Despite all the hunches about sleeper picks, teams often win basketball games at any level for a simple reason -- they create more chances to score than their opponents do by forcing more turnovers and grabbing more rebounds. More shots at the basket usually generate more points.
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