Another road win is required

[Aargh]

One more road win gets WSU out of Thursday night. None of the tie scenarios work well for WSU. Any of the 5th - 8th teams that can get one unexpected W is likely to finish as the 5 seed.

Kenpom's predictors generally get pretty accurate this time of the year. He predicts a 4-way tie for 5th - 8th at 8-10.

When more than 2 teams tie, the Valley looks at the records of the tied teams against each other. Here's the way that works out in the predictors. I've added the games the 4 teams haven't played yet that are predicted.

5th seed - UE, 4-2 (none)
T - 6th seed - DU, 3-3 (W, vs. SIU)
T - 6th seed - SIU, 3-3 (L, @ DU; W, vs. WSU)
8th seed - WSU, 2-4 (L, @ SIU)

The 6th-7th tie goes to a points system that takes more time than I care to spend for something that doesn't matter to WSU.

About any tie WSU would end up with that involves more than 2 teams is bad news, largely due to the bad start.

Kenpom predicts the last games this way:

UE - L @ CU, W vs. BU, L @ UNI
*DU - L vs. IlSU, L @ UNI, W vs. SIU, L @ BU
SIU - W vs. InSU, L @ DU, W vs. WSU
WSU - L @ IlSU, W vs. InSt, L @ SIU

*DU's numbers don't add up, but kenpom includes a likelihood for being wrong and that give DU the extra W.

If DU drops to 7-11, then UE's sweep of DU drops out and the seeding goes:
5th - SIU (3-1 among the tied teams)
6th - UE (2-2 among the tied teams)
7th - WSU (1-3 among the tied teams)

[Snapshot9]

I think WSU beats SIU, and I also think Bradley beats Evansville.

If we play well at Illinois State, we have a shot there too.

How does the seeding go in St. Louis???

[AbsolutelyShocking]

The last game of the year @SIU may be a game where the winner get out of the play-in game and the loser has a shorter time to prepare for Thursday

[melcong4]

so who do we need to win tonight......Ill. St. or Drake???

[AbsolutelyShocking]

Perfect scenario for remaining games not including shockers is:

UE - L @ CU, L vs. BU, L @ UNI
*DU - L vs. IlSU, L @ UNI, W vs. SIU, L @ BU
SIU - L vs. InSU, L @ DU

The Shocks then need 1 win to be sixth and 2 to guarantee 5th

So we need to hope for a drake loss tonight...

[kochHead]

I have to admit it is hard for me to imagine a road victory against ISU or SIU. I just hope we are peaking at the right time and the new sense of urgency is enough to get us to play with the passion on he road that we play with at home. Although I thought going into the BU game that we would have it then...

[ShockerFever]

so who do we need to win tonight......Ill. St. or Drake???

ILLINOIS STATE.

[ShockerFever]

I have to admit it is hard for me to imagine a road victory against ISU or SIU. I just hope we are peaking at the right time and the new sense of urgency is enough to get us to play with the passion on he road that we play with at home. Although I thought going into the BU game that we would have it then...

I agree. We have proven NOTHING on the road. Every time we get a little confidence and swagger at home, we drop deuces on the road (Bradley, Evansville, etc.)

1-2 looks like is how it's gonna finish. And even that Indiana State game at home isn't a gimme anymore.

[Denny Crane]

You're right, Fever, Indiana State is playing as well as anybody in the league right now.

[rrshock]

You're right, Fever, Indiana State is playing as well as anybody in the league right now.

They looked good last night against MSU.

[WSUwatcher]

8-10

I agree that 8-10 seems likely and that the four-way tie is a very plausible outcome (and said so a while back, in fact).

If it works out that way, though, 8th is definitely a better spot to be seeded than 7th. Indiana State may be on a bit of a run, but the Shocks don't seem to match up well at all against MSU this year.