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Taking off the 'homer' glasses, I don't think we have a Chinaman's chance of winning the tournament in St. Louis regardless of whether we are in the playin game or not.
Whether it is 3 or 4 games, I don't think we can put that together over a 4 day span to win. We seem to fall apart offensively under pressure defense, or when we can not get the ball into the post.
Hannah and Murry are the only 'shooters' we have, and yes, I am not forgetting Hatch, but he sure needs to warm up.
I don't think we make the NIT or the dance until 2010/2011 season.
Manigault will be a freshman next year and will experience all the freshman growing pains. Stutz needs big improvement next year (accent on big).
I think we have a shot at the NIT next year with a good shot at going to the Dance in 2010-11.
A lot will depend on how hard the returning players work on their games and their bodies in the off-season.
If they all put in a effort that we saw from Graham Hatch last year I think we could surprise to the upside.
If Garrett is a significant contributor next year, that would also be a positive surprise to me.
Of the returning players, I see the biggest potential for improvement from Hawkins, Kyles and Ellis.
If Gabe Blair and Johnny Coy are as good as hoped then we should be not have to worry about losing Ramon and Mantas. In fact, this swap may be a net positive. However, we saw this year how expectations of incoming players could get easily overblown.
Hard to say at this point how much Kenny Mannigault and Jerome Hamilton will contribute. Both sound like great athletes who need work on developing their offensive games. Again, we need to be careful about keeping expectations realistic for these newcomers.
2010-2011 we should definitely be contending for the MVC Championship and a place in the dance. Need for a lot of things to go our way for this to happen next year. It's possible, but maybe expecting a little too much.
If we're NIT-good next year, it likely means we'll finish anywhere from 2-4 in the conference. And IMO, that also means we're good enough to be a championship contender in the MVC tournament.
1.) We are 0 for winning it all in St. Louis, even with a couple decent teams. So thinking this year's team can do it, is well,
Here is what boggles the mind.
In Eddie Fogler's 1st season, we beat Tulsa to win the Valley Tournament. That was 1986-87.
Since then we have played 21 seasons, working on number 22.
Do you think there is 1 other team in D1 that has gone 22 seasons and not even played in the championship game of their conference tournament?
Haven't even made the finals.
And it's not like we finished last every season, by any stretch.
9 of the 21 seasons were in the top half of the conference. Not to even play for the title once is simply hard to grasp. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.
Don't bother looking up the Valley. Every team but us has played in the championship game at least 1 time since then.
Those are amazing thoughts to ponder. Definitely makes you go hmmm..
I truly believe St. Louis is cursed and that's one of the reasons I was so adamant about a move to KC for the thing. :whistle:
Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
________________
"Enjoy the ride."
1.) We are 0 for winning it all in St. Louis, even with a couple decent teams. So thinking this year's team can do it, is well,
True, but you'd think we were due for one......please?
2.) We'll have to win 4 games in 4 days. Na uh.
I hope this is another reverse psychology attempt. We're one game out of 6th place with five to play so there's really no telling where we'll end up.
And St. Louis is no Koch Arena.
Ah but Shocker fans do a great job imitating the atmosphere. Last year, even though we were a play-in team and we are furthest from St. Louis, we still had one of the better crowds. The year we went to the Sweet 16 and won *gasp* one game at the MVC tournament we had as good or better turnout as any school.
I think we have the potential to win it all as long as we avoid the play-in. That's not a prediction. I predict, like the most of you, that we will definitely see the post season again next year.
I'd say we were due for one like 10 years ago, even more so 3 years ago when we were the Valley Champions. Still didn't happen.. Still couldn't even make it to the title game.
Our inability to win on the road is going to keep us in the play-in rounds. Saturday night was the straw that broke the camel's back IMO. 4 in 4 it is.
Those big crowds sure didn't help all that much.. a 1-3 record to show for it since the 2006 attendance boom. It's great to have the support there, but again, it's still no Koch Arena.
Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
________________
"Enjoy the ride."
I should have included the caveat in my previous post that we MUST avoid the play-in game if we are to have any chance. As long as we avoid Thursday and make another solid stride in our development, we can certainly ride a St. Louie "high".
I'm sure everybody remembers what Ellis did in his last game last year. Perhaps everybody goes up to St. Louie and just plays solid ball with someone like Kyles breaking out on the upside. That's all we need, one nice surprise and solid contributions from all the rest and we certainly have the talent to win it all.
The deciding factor always for the SH0X is M.T.X.E. -Will be bring it?
Logic is a pure waste of time when considering the Valley Tournament. Anybody saying we have "no chance" is either just trying to instigate or has rocks in his/her head.
Playing well in the tournament may require supernatural events to occur.
Or a coach that has been mentally geared towards conference championships for 7 years or so...
T
...8)
The Big South is no Valley.
And it helps when you win the conference nearly every time in those 7 years, getting favorable matchups, and playing on your... home floor.
Facts suck.
Your missing the point of my post. I think GG's teams will be their best in the Valley Tournament. I think he is a good tournament coach ala Diana. His team's performance in both his conference and the NCAA tournament proves that. His teams play very hard towards the end of the season and I think that is due to a management strategy that emphasizes the post-season more than most. I would also expect a lot of "secret" plays to come out of the woodwork.
We were dominating for about 6 minutes at Evansville until the Refs F'd everything up. If we play like that, and perhaps even ratchet it up another notch, we will be a VERY tough out at the tourney. I think we are still improving. We came out of the gates VERY hot at UE and I thought we were going to hammer them by 20. Our team hopefully learned a valuable lesson as to how one must react when you stumble into some serious home-cookin'. Sometimes you just can't do anything about it.. you just have to take your lumps and move on. The Valley tourney games should be refereed much more fairly.
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