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"Power Rankings: Opportunities and Obstacles for Each Team Heading into the NCAA Tournament" - Sports illustrated
By MOLLY GEARY
March 07, 2018
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"We made it—it’s the last week of this year’s college hoops power rankings. Now that the regular season is over for everyone and Selection Sunday is just days away, we’re going to do things differently for this final week. We’ll be giving brief pros and cons for all 25 teams—or reasons why you should and shouldn’t believe in their ability to make an NCAA tournament run. This final power ranking still emphasizes recent results to a degree, though with the regular season over it’ll place more weight than usual on teams’ entire body of work and advanced metrics....
10. CINCINNATI (27–4)
Pro: Often overshadowed by No. 1 Virginia, the No. 2 Cincinnati defense is extremely legit as well. Per kenpom, it’s top 10 in a litany of defensive areas, including block percentage and steal percentage, and is ranked second in both two-point defense and effective field-goal defense. The Bearcats lead the country in overall half-court defense, giving up just 0.72 PPP, and are almost equally as adept in transition defense, ranking fourth nationally (all per Synergy Sports). That kind of ability to get stops is crucial.
Con: It’s a very similar case here to the Cavaliers. Cincinnati’s offense currently ranks 44th, which, again, is atypically low for Final Four teams but not without precedent. Gary Clark leads the country in offensive rating among players used on at least 20% of possessions, but he’s not a scoring machine, and the Bearcats will need others, like Jacob Evans, to be on their “A” games offensively....
16. WICHITA STATE (24–6)
Pro: How does a top-five offense sound? At No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Shockers currently have their highest-ranked offense under Gregg Marshall, led by the inside-out combo of Landry Shamet and Shaquille Morris. Wichita State shoots the ball well both inside the outside the arc without over-relying on either and led the AAC in league play in effective field-goal percentage, turnover rate, two-point shooting and three-point shooting.
Con: Defense. Defensively, this year’s Shockers are not the team you’re accustomed to in Wichita, ranking 101st on kenpom— a huge departure from where they finished over the last five seasons (13th, 1st, 15th, 11th, 20th). As they’ve made the move to the AAC, their defensive steal rate is down almost 3%, opponents are shooting 4.5% better from three and their defensive effective field-goal percentage has gone from 43.8% to 48.9%....
20. HOUSTON (24–6)
Pro: The Cougars are top 40 in both offense and defense, which can’t be said about half of this list. If you’re not familiar with them, they’ve got a marquee win over both Wichita State and Cincinnati and beat Arkansas and Providence in nonconference. They shoot well from three (where both Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks have made 43% of their 180+ attempts), rank 11th in offensive rebounding, like to play small ball and convert well in transition. They also have a go-to scorer in senior guard Rob Gray.
Con: Houston puts other teams on the free-throw line far too often, ranking 312th in defensive free throw rate. Opponents get nearly a quarter of their points from the charity stripe, which is something an aggressive attacking team can exploit. The Cougars’ small lineups could give them trouble against a bigger team, and they rate as below average on Synergy Sports in post-up situations in the halfcourt...."
By MOLLY GEARY
March 07, 2018
"We made it—it’s the last week of this year’s college hoops power rankings. Now that the regular season is over for everyone and Selection Sunday is just days away, we’re going to do things differently for this final week. We’ll be giving brief pros and cons for all 25 teams—or reasons why you should and shouldn’t believe in their ability to make an NCAA tournament run. This final power ranking still emphasizes recent results to a degree, though with the regular season over it’ll place more weight than usual on teams’ entire body of work and advanced metrics....
10. CINCINNATI (27–4)
Pro: Often overshadowed by No. 1 Virginia, the No. 2 Cincinnati defense is extremely legit as well. Per kenpom, it’s top 10 in a litany of defensive areas, including block percentage and steal percentage, and is ranked second in both two-point defense and effective field-goal defense. The Bearcats lead the country in overall half-court defense, giving up just 0.72 PPP, and are almost equally as adept in transition defense, ranking fourth nationally (all per Synergy Sports). That kind of ability to get stops is crucial.
Con: It’s a very similar case here to the Cavaliers. Cincinnati’s offense currently ranks 44th, which, again, is atypically low for Final Four teams but not without precedent. Gary Clark leads the country in offensive rating among players used on at least 20% of possessions, but he’s not a scoring machine, and the Bearcats will need others, like Jacob Evans, to be on their “A” games offensively....
16. WICHITA STATE (24–6)
Pro: How does a top-five offense sound? At No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Shockers currently have their highest-ranked offense under Gregg Marshall, led by the inside-out combo of Landry Shamet and Shaquille Morris. Wichita State shoots the ball well both inside the outside the arc without over-relying on either and led the AAC in league play in effective field-goal percentage, turnover rate, two-point shooting and three-point shooting.
Con: Defense. Defensively, this year’s Shockers are not the team you’re accustomed to in Wichita, ranking 101st on kenpom— a huge departure from where they finished over the last five seasons (13th, 1st, 15th, 11th, 20th). As they’ve made the move to the AAC, their defensive steal rate is down almost 3%, opponents are shooting 4.5% better from three and their defensive effective field-goal percentage has gone from 43.8% to 48.9%....
20. HOUSTON (24–6)
Pro: The Cougars are top 40 in both offense and defense, which can’t be said about half of this list. If you’re not familiar with them, they’ve got a marquee win over both Wichita State and Cincinnati and beat Arkansas and Providence in nonconference. They shoot well from three (where both Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks have made 43% of their 180+ attempts), rank 11th in offensive rebounding, like to play small ball and convert well in transition. They also have a go-to scorer in senior guard Rob Gray.
Con: Houston puts other teams on the free-throw line far too often, ranking 312th in defensive free throw rate. Opponents get nearly a quarter of their points from the charity stripe, which is something an aggressive attacking team can exploit. The Cougars’ small lineups could give them trouble against a bigger team, and they rate as below average on Synergy Sports in post-up situations in the halfcourt...."
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