2017-18 National Rankings

[ShockerFever]

Stop trying to bring logic to the arguments JH4P. CBB will get flustered and start shrinking up like a hermit crab.

[CBB_Fan]

Basically, you can't use "they didn't play like a top 5 team should have" as a justification for why the Shox aren't deserving of a ranking around #20.

How #20 would fare is a distinctly different question.

You are right on the preaseason rating bump. I ignored it mostly because I was looking at each game as "vs the spread" and I didn't know fast he removes the preaseason bump, but it is trivial to rerun the numbers at the current rating of +19.23.

Opponent	Expected	Actual	Difference
Oklahoma	3.54	-8	-14.3
Arkansas State	21.0	9	-12.0
FGCU	14.3	10	-4.34
Connecticut	7.93	10	2.06
Houston	4.80	18	13.2
USF	23.3	38	14.7
ECU	20.2	35	14.8
Tulsa	8.74	3	-5.74
SMU	4.42	-5	-9.42
Houston	.952	-14	-15.0

We still perform under expected for a 19.23 rating. The tempo adjusted equilibrium for those results is about 17.2, which is roughly #32. Not as bad as my guess based on our initial 25.96 rating, which probably means that some of the drop was removing the preseason bump rather than just poor play.

But still, a 17.2 rating gives makes us 2 point dogs to Cincinnati at home, 10 on the road. It makes us 4 point dogs to SMU @ SMU, and makes @ Temple (2 point favorites) a nailbiter and @Memphis at least a game (6 points). And this is assuming UCF falls off the map without Tacko. That is absolutely in line with my pessimistic prognostications above. 2-3 games where we are the clear underdog, 2-3 nailbiters, possibly 3 more games we should win but have a chance of being closer (like @Tulsa).

EDIT: 32 in Kenpom puts us right next to Texas A&M (29), SMU (32 currently) and Notre Dame (33), who aren't receiving votes. Others outside the top 25 include UK (33), Louisville (34). So yes, our play hasn't been to the level of a top 20 team. And for the record, 5 AP Pollsters put us at #25 and a sixth put us at NR (previously 6 in his ballot). Considering every pollster put us 12th or better last week, that is exactly the type of drop I was talking about.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Claim #1: The current level of play can do no better than 21-10
Claim #2: The current level of play is roughly equivalent to KenPom #32

Me: KenPom #32 would be projected to go 7-4 down the stretch, meaning 22-8 entering AAC play, probably either 23-9 or 24-9 on selection Sunday.
Also me: I thought “no better than 21-10” meant “no better”, but hey, that’s just me.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The wild claims are just getting ridiculous

[CBB_Fan]

You are right.  I made that statement based off the rough estimation that we were playing closer to #55, which would be expected to lose 6 or more games on the current schedule.  Which is still an accurate statement based on reasonable guess.  I could still qualify that statement by looking just at the last 3 games instead of the last month, which puts our tempo adjusted equilibrium to 4.62, putting us between #122 Iona and #124 New Mexico and certainly would do "no better" than 21-10, though it is truly a ridiculous claim to say that is our "real level."

[vancedave56]

We have no room to complain about our ranking - I would also say somewhere around 20 in our current state. It is the end of the season that matters, but corrective action needs to begin. We had 4 valley losses (3 in a row) the year we went to the final 4. Things are never and bad nor as good as they seem; stay on an even keel. There is so much parity it is unbelievable. We play better as underdogs and don't seem to handle be the favorite very well at all.

[Play Angry]

So, if we subtract out all the backpedaling, it looks like we:

-Are in a 3 game mini-slump, our second such stretch of the season;

- Need to play better than we have over the course of the last 3 games if we want to achieve our goals for this season;

-Did not play like a Top 25 team over the course of the last 3 games and need to revert to the norm reflected in the season's body of work if we want to stay highly ranked.

In sum, no novel insight once the hyperbole and venting is filtered out.

[CBB_Fan]

I wouldn't say this is the second such stretch. I'd say it is the third, the first being the Maui tournament. I'm not exaggerating when I say California is the worst power conference team, and and is an awful look to be down 18 to a team that lost by 24 to Chaminade. That was the first big red flag on the season, not the loss to ND or the OU-FGCU stretch.

[Play Angry]

Eh, you are stretching again when you claim Maui is equivalent - a 10 point win against Cal underperformed the expected outcome at that time by 11 points IIRC. We then beat Marquette by 14 (exceeding quant expected outcome by ~5 points IIRC), then lost to Notre Dame by 1 (falling short of the expected outcome by 3 points at that time IIRC).

Not a terrific stretch but also far from equivalent.

[Dan]

Imagine how Kentucky fans are feeling about now.

[Shocker Mama]

They are probably making death threats to random referees as we speak.

[ShockCrazy]

We haven't played great the last 3, but too many people are overreacting. I would be more concerned if there was a pattern in all 3 games that showed a clear weakness. Tulsa, I almost toss this game entirely out from analysis because it was the trap game of trap games. Road game less than 48 hours after another road game with travel times that got screwed up. SMU we lost because Shake Milton was astounding and we struggled defensively, offensively we were blistering after figuring their defense out 10 minutes in. Houston the defense was adequate, we held them below projections, while at an above average pace, but the offense was terrible both with shooting and turnovers. If it had been one consistent issue I'd be worried, but given the significant differences, I think it's just a midseason malaise.

[El_Wu]

There is no need to be in panic mode just yet. But if loose more than 3 games left out of 11 for conference then i would be worried. ESPN has given us more credit this years than the past. That is for sure. The SHOX will find a way out. We have since the final 4. We are close to taste a championship. We are getting a whole lot more attention since we have moved to the AAC. We have a 3-4 bid league now. Which i will not complain about. We need these next two games to find out what is going on. Evaluate other options and good combinations.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

There will be no more than 3 of the 65 pollsters leave WSU off the ballot today, and I'll be surprised if we see even 1.

For the record, there was 1.

[pinstripers]

For the record, there was 1.

Was it that azzhole Davis?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

No, David Cobb - Chattanooga, TN. He dropped the Shox from #6 last week to NR this week. Weirdo.

Seth Davis did have the Shox at 25 though.

[1972Shocker]

The Shocks will need to work their way back up the rankings gradually. Fortunately, being in the AAC they at least have games that give them that opportunity. This would not be the case if still in the Valley. Whether the Shocks can take advantage of those opportunities remains to be seen but at least they are there.

[Play Angry]

Was it that azzhole Davis?

David Cobb at the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

[shock]

I am pleasantly surprised. I was curious about the media perception of the AAC. This answers that question.

[WuShock Reaper]

Looking at the AP Top 25 schedules for the next two weeks, there won't be a lot of opportunities for the Shockers to move. Not as many Top 25 Match ups and not as many games on the road for Top 25 teams,

[ICT2CLT]

It's only Monday, but I'm betting all three Kansas teams are ranked next week. KSU suddenly looking really strong.