2017-18 National Poll Rankings

[FadedCrown]

It seems CBB_Fan 's thought process is as follows:

If the #21 KenPom team keeps playing like the #21 KenPom team, they will get seeded like the #40 team.

The rest of us must be fools to not see this simple, straightforward logic. lol

Well I mean, 8th KenPom team seeded like a 40?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This ain't that crappy MVC anymore. Note that when the MVC was actually good, WSU went 24-8, 0-4 vs eventual 1-10 seeds, and yet pulled a 7 seed under Turgeon.

Forget the last few seasons.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

And for the record, 24-8 isn't anything close to a 4 seed. Yes, the RPI/SOS at that level (14/28) but the wins won't be. Butler was a 4 seed last year with an RPI of 14, SOS 13, 4-0 vs Top 25, 10-4 vs Top 50 (albeit, some bad losses). WVU had a worse RPI and SOS (24/72) but were 5-3 vs the top 25, 6-4 vs the top 50, 13-5 vs top 100. Assuming losses to Cincinnati and wins versus mostly everyone else we'll be 0-3 or 0-4 to the top 25 (not saying we won't be at least 1-3), with a roughly 4-5 record vs the top 50 and 11-7 vs top100.

I have a lot of questions, but I’ll start with a basic one. Who said 24-8 = 4 seed?

I’ll hang up and listen off air. Thank you, and go Shox.

[ShockingButTrue]

It seems CBB_Fan 's thought process is as follows:

If the #21 KenPom team keeps playing like the #21 KenPom team, they will get seeded like the #40 team.

The rest of us must be fools to not see this simple, straightforward logic. lol

The NCAA selection committee agrees with you in all sincerity. Empirically as a matter of fact.

They'll remind us of 2017 (last year) when we finished #8 in kenpom and got seeded overall at #38. Or review 2016 *wink wink* if you wish.

The vote has to be unanimous on the committee, prior to seeding.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The MVC anchor is gone.

[jdshock]

It seems CBB_Fan 's thought process is as follows:

If the #21 KenPom team keeps playing like the #21 KenPom team, they will get seeded like the #40 team.

The rest of us must be fools to not see this simple, straightforward logic. lol

If you subscribe to kenpom, can you see performance by game? If so, out of the last 10 games, how many have we beat our average scores? Based purely on an uninformed eye test, it feels like we're in a slump and we're playing like less than the #21 team in the country, and the concern isn't really that we continue to play like the #21 team, but instead that we will continue to play like we've played recently.

[CBB_Fan]

I can get a rough estimate. For example, at the time we played Oklahoma the expected score was roughly +8.4 (7.92 nRtg difference plus 3.70 homecourt advantage, multiplied by 72.6expected possessions, divided by 100)

[CBB_Fan]

1. I'll admit to being off the mark on the AP Poll; though my post was made before many of these teams lost
2. We were the #4 KenPom team. We are now the #21 KenPom. If we played like the #21 KenPom team over that time period, we'd have fallen to #11. We had to play worse than #21 to fall to #21 (mathematically, we played at roughly the rate of the #55 team).
3. I used 24 wins and a 4-seed as an inferred value from"... at least 23 wins. They are more likely to be a 4 seed..."
4. ShockerFever, you've never embarrassed anyone but yourself by caring so much about a message board. Only one of us has ever been told by moderators to chill out, and it wasn't me. And I seem to remember a ban ... maybe for repeatedly violating forum rules? Maybe you need a refresher:

- Profanity or vulgarities
- Flames
- Personal insults, name-calling or attacks of other posters
- Criticism of forum staff
- Off-topic posts not in the Off-topic forum
- Multiple, identical posts
- Material that may be construed as offensive, whether or not it is on-topic

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

1) Now you are just making up a fake timeline. You said WSU would likely fall out as of Saturday afternoon. The results of games that evening and Sunday were generally bad for WSU. That makes your prediction worse, not better.
2) WSU was #4 when preseason adjustments were still a very heavy factor in the equation. Ken never had this season's results ranked that high. WSU didn't play like a top 5 team in November, December, or so far in January. Your math is just awful.
3) Your reading comprehension is almost as bad as your math. Go re-read and try again. You are mixing and matching 2 different comments.

[jdshock]

2. We were the #4 KenPom team. We are now the #21 KenPom. If we played like the #21 KenPom team over that time period, we'd have fallen to #11. We had to play worse than #21 to fall to #21 (mathematically, we played at roughly the rate of the #55 team).

Jamar Howard 4 President , this is closer to what I intended to ask. Is there a way to see where our performance ranks in the weeks since we hit our peak at #4? Is it actually closer to #55?

[CBB_Fan]

Last 10 games:

Opponent	Expected	Actual	Difference
Oklahoma	8.43	-8	-16.4
Arkansas State	24.5	9	-15.5
FGCU	16.4	10	-6.54
Connecticut	9.88	10	0.12
Houston	6.76	18	11.2
USF	25.6	38	12.4
ECU	22.7	35	12.3
Tulsa	11.4	3	-8.4
SMU	6.61	-5	-8.44
Houston	1.88	-14	-15.9

3 positive results, one neutral result, 6 negative results vs the KenPom spread. Hard to know the exact formula KenPom uses, but here's what KenPom would predict from #55 Murray State versus that schedule:

vs Oklahoma - 1 point loss
vs Arkansas State - 19 point win
vs FGCU - 9 point win
@ Connecticut - 4 point win
vs Houston - 2 point win
vs USF - 21 point win
@ ECU - 18 point win
@ Tulsa - 2 point win
vs SMU - 1 point win
@ Houston - 6 point win

That's roughly 1.45 points/game optimistic for Murray State (IE, we did 1.45 points better/game than Murray State would have been expected to). Whereas we did 3.84 points/game worse than KenPom predictions.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Last 10 games:

Opponent	Expected	Actual	Difference
Oklahoma	8.43	-8	-16.4
Arkansas State	24.5	9	-15.5
FGCU	16.4	10	-6.54
Connecticut	9.88	10	0.12
Houston	6.76	18	11.2
USF	25.6	38	12.4
ECU	22.7	35	12.3
Tulsa	11.4	3	-8.4
SMU	6.61	-5	-8.44
Houston	1.88	-14	-15.9

3 positive results, one neutral result, 6 negative results vs the KenPom spread.

Your chart is using assumptions where WSU was ranked top 5 at the time the game was played. Once again, that is because Ken had a huge portion of his formula with preseason expectations baked in at the time the games were played.

If you want a good comparison, treat WSU like the #20ish team and see how they would be expected to fair in those games. You won't see the Shox favored to win a game at Houston, or to beat a team like OU by 8 (even if at home).

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Basically, you can't use "they didn't play like a top 5 team should have" as a justification for why the Shox aren't deserving of a ranking around #20.

How #20 would fare is a distinctly different question.

[WuShock Reaper]

Coaches Poll - Week 11

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/basketball-men/polls/coaches-poll/2017/11/

#8 - Cincinnati
#11 - Oklahoma
#16 - Wichita State

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

4 losses, including back-to-back vs unranked teams.
0 top 25 wins

Yet ranked 17 & 16 in AP/Coaches, and Lunardi has the Shox as a 5 seed.

RESPECT

[martymoose]

I'll take it. Everyone's always claiming disrespect card for the Shockers...this ain't the year for that. We've been getting tons of respect from almost all the voters and in my opinion still are with our current ranking. Hopefully this last week was their wake up call and the boys can get it together because we have 2 must win games this week if we want to win the conference.

[ShockerFever]

CBB, wrong again on the AP prediction. Shocking. More to come.

That’s why this guy is the WORST.

[ShockerFever]

If we aren’t beating every team we play by 30, and aren’t looking perfect for 40 minutes doing it, CBB is going to have a problem.

So embarrassing.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

1. I'll admit to being off the mark on the AP Poll; though my post was made before many of these teams lost

I was going to leave this alone after merely "commenting" on it, but I think it deserves a quote response.

WSU is #17 today. EVERY SINGLE TEAM between #18 & #27 in today's poll WON over the weekend.

Your prediction was made Saturday afternoon, and the results around the country the rest of the weekend ALL FELL IN FAVOR OF HELPING IT COME TRUE.

Yet here we are at #17 despite a freakishly bad string of outcomes around the top 25. And here you are being dishonest about the facts. Again.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

AND St. Mary's surprised us all by jumping the Shox after being unranked last week.
AND Gonzaga jumped the Shox despite starting 6 spots back and going 1-1 last week.
AND Texas Tech jumped the Shox despite starting 1 spot back and also going 0-2 last week.
AND Ohio Stated jumped the Shox despite starting 15 spots back and a mere 2 wins over CBI level teams.

I mean, good grief that "they will fall out" prediction was bad, and doubly bad to say "I admit I was wrong, but actually if only..."

lol