Winning the MVC Outright

[WheatShock]

ISUr has 6 games left.

@Drake
Bradley
@MSU
Loyola
SIU
@UNI

A couple of considerations.

1. I don't see them losing twice so I believe our Shocks must win out in order to finish alone in 1st. We probably don't want them lose twice in any case as that could badly hurt our at large chances if we crap the bed in STL.

2. Based on the announced timetable for his surgery McIntosh could be back for the UNI game and maybe the SIU game but I think SIU would be a stretch. Its also unlikely he will be 100% until at least late March so they will not be the same team we saw earlier in the season.

Without McIntosh ISU is still a strong defensive team while their offense has struggled to score. None of the teams remaining on their schedule have anything near the inside skill and depth that WSU has so the clearest path to beating ISU is for a team can have a good outside shooting night against them. The teams that have the best shot IMO are Drake, MSU, Loyola, & UNI. Bradley & SIU both shoot poorly and have to play at ISU so their chances are slim. ISU also has Loyola at home and did win in Chicago 81-59, I think LU can cause problems with McInstosh out as I think their "small" line up matches up well with ISU's small group. UNI kept it fairly close at Normal and MSU took the birds to OT so both should have some confidence with games at home. We will learn a lot about ISU's mental state tonight against Drake.

I'll take another MVC championship however it comes, but call me selfish I REALLY don't want to have to share it with ISUr.

Thoughts?

[Dan]

ISU's "depth" was seriously exposed with McIntosh out and Fayne in foul trouble. At that point, you guard Lee (with a long body) and Hawkins. Game over.

[ShockerPhi]

I also like the odds of ISU losing at Drake or MSU. Will be interesting to see how they respond to the drubbing we gave them. Will it piss them off and give them motivation? Or will it continue to haunt them as they continue to struggle without McIntosh.

I agree with you that I'd prefer not to share the title, but I also don't want them to lose more than twice down the stretch.

[ShockMe300]

I know it was mentioned elsewhere, but i can't remember where. What is the tiebreaker? I thought I had heard it was RPI or something silly like that. Is that true?

[WheatShock]

ISU's "depth" was seriously exposed with McIntosh out and Fayne in foul trouble. At that point, you guard Lee (with a long body) and Hawkins. Game over.

Do any of the other teams have a guy like ZB that could guard Lee? That kind of length and quickness combo is fairly rare at this level. Hawkins is also a mismatch for many teams.

[WheatShock]

I know it was mentioned elsewhere, but i can't remember where. What is the tiebreaker? I thought I had heard it was RPI or something silly like that. Is that true?

RPI is the tiebreaker for Arch Madness seeding and ISU will likely have the advantage. I don't believe there is any tiebreaker for the regular season championship, you just share it.

[ShockMe300]

I don't share well. But thanks.

[WUpigsooie]

I'm petty. I want them to lose again, not because I don't want to share but because I don't want them to hang a banner.

[Dan]

Do any of the other teams have a guy like ZB that could guard Lee? That kind of length and quickness combo is fairly rare at this level.

Missouri State has some size. I have no idea how their bigs defend, but between Church, Johnson and McCullough, they have enough big bodies to create a bad matchup.

[ShockerFever]

I hope they lose every game the rest of the way.

[WheatShock]

Missouri State has some size. I have no idea how their bigs defend, but between Church, Johnson and McCullough, they have enough big bodies to create a bad matchup.

Church is a super athletic guy. I can see him being able to guard Lee. I don't know how well Johnson defends on the perimeter but its possible he matches up with Hawkins well. My somewhat erratic memory says McCullough is big but makes Nurger look like the roadrunner, I could see Fayne going to town against him.

MSU is one of my picks for a potential upset as they took the birds to OT in Normal. They did lose one of their better guards after that game and have struggled in close games so I wouldn't be too sure about their mental state though.

[DwShock]

I hope they lose every game the rest of the way.

+1

[Shocker_Power]

I hope they lose every game the rest of the way.

I'm not sure that would be good for our seeding in the Big Dance. It would seem to me, the best thing for us would be for each of us to run the table to the finals of Arch Madness and we beat them there.

[Cdizzle]

I would rather have an outright league title than be 1 seed line higher. But I am also one that still highly values regular season conference championships.

[Dave Stalwart]

I hope they lose every game the rest of the way.

I really appreciate having you around to remind me that it's okay for me to just get mad at a team and not root for them no matter how it affects us. I feel the same way. I want them to get beat by 41 by every team left and finish with an RPI of 500. If the Shockers win out, it really hardly matters what happens to Illinois State anyway. Since I'm rooting for us to win out I suppose I can also root for the Burds to put together a terrible stretch run :)